Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump lower tariffs on China by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x23c79be2d720049c90a5e45cda93ef41b402997bf5deca87b4bda48e9f1c4eed
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $147,207
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $153,559
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $147,207 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6cbb…89abbacked No | 1c | 13,997$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.07 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked No | 0c | 8,788$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 240 | 0%0 W · 240 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88db…3843backed No | 11c | 8,029$915 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$915.25 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf162…ba35backed No | 18c | 5,629$1,022 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,022.15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 25c | 2,574$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.27 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +9.0wins | +0.11per pick | 47cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb195…b9d5backed No | 13c | 2,231$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 16cpaid | +183%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06ec…f845backed Yes | 76c | 2,205$1,668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$536.79 | 219 | 35.2%77 W · 142 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…811abacked No | 18c | 2,195$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1e…bfe7backed Yes | 65c | 1,874$1,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.61 | 101 | 27.7%28 W · 73 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes | 71c | 1,750$1,244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.46 | 204 | 46.6%95 W · 109 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x540d…235bbacked No | 10c | 1,600$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.08 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 30c | 1,529$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.23 | 153 | 32.7%50 W · 103 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd86f…38e1backed No | 16c | 1,522$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -75%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0894…cf93backed No | 16c | 1,490$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.26 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | +6.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccf3…8f27backed No | 9c | 1,342$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.78 | 61 | 31.1%19 W · 42 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41df…3140backed No | 1c | 1,265$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b69…0cdebacked Yes | 73c | 1,148$843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.24 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.6wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe341…273bbacked No | 5c | 1,140$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.21 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 6c | 1,111$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.66 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…19aabacked No | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 113 | 36.3%41 W · 72 L | -8.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8be9…cfc3backed No | 32c | 937.5$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1008…d2efbacked No | 23c | 870.91$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 10c | 747.18$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.12 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0155…aa3ebacked No | 11c | 730$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 29c | 689.65$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 375 | 33.3%125 W · 250 L | -17.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe72c…a592backed No | 33c | 647.43$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…40b4backed No | 8c | 631.78$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6726…eabdbacked No | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb7…a1d1backed No | 17c | 578.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcda2…5ac4backed No | 18c | 547.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e6…9767backed Yes | 70c | 530.27$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.84 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed No | 2c | 522.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 398 | 9.5%38 W · 360 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad1…6d88backed No | 10c | 509.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21fe…da90backed No | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc160…ce0abacked No | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed No | 8c | 495.22$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3010…09dbbacked No | 31c | 483.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd5…ac33backed Yes | 80c | 466.23$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…a880backed No | 11c | 454.55$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cab…7222backed No | 27c | 440.54$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed No | 5c | 406.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 216 | 34.3%74 W · 142 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…709cbacked No | 7c | 403.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.62 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 37cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…c364backed No | 13c | 400$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28b2…eb4fbacked No | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe076…184cbacked No | 18c | 400$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f63…6643backed No | 10c | 399.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x64e0…8d71backed No | 9c | 376$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x978a…231ebacked No | 17c | 355.26$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8637…9657backed Yes | 76c | 328.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.96 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.5wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab8e…3d89backed No | 31c | 321.11$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.4 | 116 | 46.6%54 W · 62 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed No | 7c | 315.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 215 | 4.2%9 W · 206 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed No | 8c | 314.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 86 | 15.1%13 W · 73 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55b8…1f22backed No | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d6…f3bdbacked Yes | 79c | 303.8$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.8 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 42cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 79c | 278.95$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.33 | 996 | 29.5%294 W · 702 L | -73.3wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7870…a4c5backed No | 18c | 274.41$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x258d…4fd6backed No | 8c | 263.37$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a45…0000backed Yes | 65c | 243.4$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +121.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8d…5232backed No | 6c | 242$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3d…918abacked No | 22c | 226.27$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked Yes | 78c | 222$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.84 | 93 | 47.3%44 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d74…ee45backed No | 10c | 204.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes | 73c | 190$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | +5.9wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a48…22e8backed Yes | 73c | 176.83$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ce…54a5backed No | 29c | 169.22$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked No | 14c | 169.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 130 | 46.9%61 W · 69 L | +10.2wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5eee…d8e9backed No | 30c | 167.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca8…ecd4backed No | 14c | 164.22$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd291…103ebacked No | 19c | 160$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bbc1backed No | 24c | 159.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1a…83eabacked Yes | 64c | 157.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f65…3381backed Yes | 77c | 129.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.41 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a07…05c1backed No | 22c | 122.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb54…452abacked No | 11c | 121.36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c50…476bbacked No | 12c | 120$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf077…5fabbacked No | 21c | 119.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3198…edbfbacked No | 22c | 111.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224b…f6b8backed No | 39c | 111.29$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.26 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb611…9a12backed No | 23c | 110.91$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ff1…9511backed No | 9c | 110.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03f9…b09ebacked Yes | 65c | 110$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.8 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa581…45b2backed Yes | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5024…3fc7backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 62cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Yes | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b73…4766backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x433a…71e7backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4b…4554backed Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.23per pick | 37cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked Yes | 79c | 99.99$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e64…8fdfbacked No | 32c | 99.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 17c | 85.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 102 | 44.1%45 W · 57 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0c…af7abacked Yes | 70c | 84.73$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +14%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd737…71bbbacked No | 14c | 80$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb0…7b25backed No | 30c | 67.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…3c8abacked No | 30c | 66.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 15c | 66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -11.1wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe21e…4d48backed No | 36c | 60.92$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef70…339fbacked No | 20c | 60.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.21per pick | 35cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4782…e79ebacked Yes | 66c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2139…4b34backed Yes | 39c | 60$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd632…8afbbacked No | 23c | 57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +102.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Trump lower tariffs on China by July 31?this page
- Will Trump lower tariffs on China by April 30?No won
- Will Trump lower tariffs on China by May 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.