TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Celtics vs. Knicks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Knicksof Celtics, Knicks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,895,011
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,970,450

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,895,011 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 642 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x011f…1122backed Celtics4c660,281$23,583 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,582.5646426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Knicks31c270,307$84,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185,360.636344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Celtics69c248,000$171,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,119.948333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x90c3…4107backed Knicks40c124,082$49,719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,362.28250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Knicks31c88,888$27,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61,332.5228241.1%116 W · 166 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Knicks61c78,677$48,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,327.8110357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a61…5781backed Celtics70c56,168$39,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,317.413666.7%24 W · 12 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+19.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…ea5abacked Celtics70c46,671$32,670 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,669.571838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Celtics49c46,495$22,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,840.1913248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Knicks29c46,334$13,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,727.328341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Celtics68c42,189$28,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,715.5813636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Celtics69c40,537$27,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,808.3696447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Celtics72c34,972$25,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,044.1436748.2%177 W · 190 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Celtics68c30,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,40047848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x245b…00c5backed Knicks30c30,000$9,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,00014052.1%73 W · 67 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Knicks64c29,002$18,566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,435.522457.1%128 W · 96 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e82…752cbacked Knicks31c26,705$8,275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,430.211,20455.3%666 W · 538 L+52.0wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+12.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Knicks31c25,652$7,952 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,7007335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f0b…eb6dbacked Knicks30c24,500$7,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,149.9622137.6%83 W · 138 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Knicks32c20,454$6,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,958.9566853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Knicks27c20,219$5,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,786.7548046%221 W · 259 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Celtics68c20,000$13,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,499.978840.9%36 W · 52 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-27.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x24df…e8b2backed Knicks29c18,756$5,346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,410.137734%128 W · 249 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-1.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Celtics57c16,887$9,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,673.4330443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Celtics68c16,331$11,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,141.5613560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa535…6bf5backed Celtics68c15,000$10,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,199.999557.9%55 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked Knicks26c15,000$3,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,149.833644.4%16 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Knicks40c14,664$5,863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,800.63,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Celtics69c14,493$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0006873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1650…cdc2backed Celtics70c12,590$8,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,808450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+24.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Knicks33c12,121$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,121.2123342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Knicks33c12,121$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,121.2131453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Knicks41c11,141$4,586 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,554.71,40940.2%567 W · 842 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-23.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Knicks18c11,099$1,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,101.418536.5%31 W · 54 L+8.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe5fb…84b5backed Knicks50c10,774$5,384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,390.361782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+74.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Knicks25c10,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,50080146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc6fe…b77fbacked Knicks31c10,000$3,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,9004452.3%23 W · 21 L+1.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2aa2…4d22backed Knicks56c9,782$5,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,349.1636057.5%207 W · 153 L-14.7wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ed3…23abbacked Celtics70c9,588$6,712 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,711.81050%5 W · 5 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-29.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Celtics39c9,521$3,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,686.7916537%61 W · 104 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x07cb…743cbacked Knicks55c9,325$5,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,184.635230.8%16 W · 36 L-6.7wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed Knicks17c8,879$1,523 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,356.0510926.6%29 W · 80 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick32cpaid-26.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Knicks31c8,725$2,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,004.731,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Knicks23c8,701$1,967 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,734.23935.9%14 W · 25 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick28cpaid+62.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x363a…df44backed Celtics68c8,551$5,815 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,814.844841.7%20 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid+16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Knicks52c7,794$4,051 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,743.281,19846.8%561 W · 637 L-7.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd78d…60bebacked Celtics1c7,722$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.9525016.8%42 W · 208 L-13.1wins-0.05per pick22cpaid-38.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked Celtics60c7,697$4,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,619.783948.7%19 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Celtics74c7,648$5,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,684.727546.2%127 W · 148 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Celtics70c7,604$5,354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,354.1470640.8%288 W · 418 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-10.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5523…51e9backed Celtics69c7,593$5,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,239.0261851.6%319 W · 299 L-1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Knicks31c7,537$2,370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,167.726431.8%84 W · 180 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e05…01cdbacked Knicks19c7,438$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,041.651942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.5wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Celtics69c7,400$5,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0928053.8%43 W · 37 L-6.4wins-0.08per pick62cpaid-10.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Celtics43c7,000$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,9907829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4142…1853backed Knicks31c7,000$2,170 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,830366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+70.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Knicks31c6,452$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,451.881,45149.7%721 W · 730 L+18.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Knicks32c6,250$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,25025536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed Celtics4c6,017$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.391434.9%7 W · 136 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-43.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Knicks32c5,920$1,890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,029.617261.1%44 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Celtics17c5,702$976 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.151,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Knicks28c5,600$1,542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,057.9376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Knicks36c5,426$1,927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,498.2829957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Celtics67c5,115$3,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,438.1879549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Knicks31c5,100$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,5191,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8d…2965backed Celtics69c5,016$3,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,460.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Knicks32c5,000$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4001,26944.5%565 W · 704 L+32.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Celtics69c5,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,45016641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bdf…137fbacked Knicks31c5,000$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,450333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0537…13b6backed Knicks31c5,000$1,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,4502462.5%15 W · 9 L+5.4wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+68.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Celtics69c5,000$3,450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.991,19746.7%559 W · 638 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x40a5…8f04backed Knicks30c4,959$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,471.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid+14.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7592…f661backed Celtics64c4,878$3,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,142.685728.1%16 W · 41 L-5.2wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-36.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Knicks31c4,839$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,338.7142827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Celtics50c4,600$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3005536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3375…a8d8backed Celtics18c4,413$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7802236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Knicks28c4,235$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,043.6266732.4%216 W · 451 L+41.8wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xabe9…8826backed Celtics59c4,200$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,467.994143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Knicks20c4,061$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,240.4919419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Celtics70c4,058$2,840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,840.475843.1%25 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Knicks48c3,803$1,844 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,959.28637.2%32 W · 54 L-3.4wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-26.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Knicks34c3,602$1,218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,384.187929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbef6…f2f9backed Knicks57c3,457$1,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,496.512755.6%15 W · 12 L+5.0wins+0.19per pick37cpaid+25.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x01a2…d77ebacked Knicks31c3,190$989 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,201.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick42cpaid+7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17a9…5cb6backed Knicks32c3,131$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,129.25560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+44%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Knicks32c3,125$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,12536843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2c39…56dcbacked Celtics1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.935425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-18.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1186…051bbacked Celtics70c3,000$2,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,085757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick64cpaid-17%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Knicks31c3,000$930 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,07019147.6%91 W · 100 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+0.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Celtics69c3,000$2,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0701,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Knicks30c3,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,099.922532%8 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Knicks31c2,806$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,936.022,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Knicks32c2,777$894 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,882.81650%3 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+77.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x160d…5295backed Knicks49c2,702$1,337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,364.98345.8%38 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+20.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x898b…8d76backed Celtics0c2,510$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0417943.6%78 W · 101 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+3.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Knicks31c2,500$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,71566153.3%352 W · 309 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Knicks51c2,394$1,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,173.275050%25 W · 25 L-3.4wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-13.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Celtics1c2,302$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.871088.3%9 W · 99 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-25.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92bc…5f95backed Knicks31c2,300$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+61.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fd…5cddbacked Knicks30c2,289$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,602.3650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+44.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.