TailMyPicks
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump say "Epstein" by Monday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$174,005
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$152,793

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,005 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 130 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x819f…f200backed Yes16c18,898$3,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,107.9150%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cac…0a0fbacked Yes1c10,500$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1403225%8 W · 24 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+10.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b8…4ee0backed Yes12c6,671$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.333228.1%9 W · 23 L-2.9wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-43.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x764d…15aebacked Yes17c5,986$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid-7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes5c5,656$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.0941238.8%160 W · 252 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes2c3,580$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.293989.5%38 W · 360 L-5.1wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-62.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Yes21c3,314$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.7840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes3c3,181$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.518134.6%28 W · 53 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No73c3,100$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$829.5410055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes9c2,681$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.398111.1%9 W · 72 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-42.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3418…a3f2backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100850%4 W · 4 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+76.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes8c2,440$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.4555618.5%103 W · 453 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2457…2c8abacked Yes19c2,322$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes9c2,138$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.596546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x80da…4f6dbacked Yes5c2,009$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.1119436.1%70 W · 124 L+7.8wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes18c1,397$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.7644111.3%50 W · 391 L-44.5wins-0.10per pick21cpaid-52.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x06ec…f845backed Yes3c1,200$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.221935.2%77 W · 142 L+8.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71e5…d10bbacked Yes17c1,089$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.763928.2%11 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick32cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa074…f1c9backed Yes46c1,014$466 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$465.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x75ac…33d7backed Yes5c1,000$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4932029.1%93 W · 227 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick28cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ef2…d0dabacked Yes3c999.57$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.992025%5 W · 15 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No10c919.47$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$825.683966.7%26 W · 13 L+10.2wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+133.6%equal weight68+0.16 edge/pick
0x260d…fbc2backed Yes13c888.98$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.552828.6%8 W · 20 L-4.1wins-0.14per pick43cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes2c877.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.542035%7 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0013…3c30backed Yes12c726.27$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$863622.2%8 W · 28 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick15cpaid+10.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed No58c718.96$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.8916144.7%72 W · 89 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes2c705$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.281618.8%3 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-18.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf62…cab6backed Yes6c678.14$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x097f…2d35backed Yes45c668.27$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4158…ce9fbacked Yes25c634.93$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.6919435.1%68 W · 126 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-9.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc45…13bdbacked No71c625.99$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.362948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+41.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c29…d822backed No58c599.99$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2528632.6%28 W · 58 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x92c7…c136backed Yes12c557.63$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.168226.8%22 W · 60 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xede5…7802backed Yes34c511.96$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173.51936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80cf…614dbacked Yes8c500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.53033.3%10 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe24e…350cbacked Yes19c471.58$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.6520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa07c…bbb0backed No77c455.69$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes18c450$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$797338.4%28 W · 45 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2525…b919backed Yes16c450$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.913943.2%60 W · 79 L+0.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes13c449.98$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.130319.1%58 W · 245 L-20.6wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-35.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7e17…2e74backed Yes24c419.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.30per pick20cpaid+194.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes8c400$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3232626.4%86 W · 240 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes39c399.47$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.282015%3 W · 17 L-2.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-75.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Yes8c399.44$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.966740.3%27 W · 40 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+22.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes13c379.37$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4999629.5%294 W · 702 L-73.3wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-37.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes13c365.2$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9456733.2%188 W · 379 L-40.9wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-29.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Yes14c364$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.962429.2%7 W · 17 L-4.8wins-0.20per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5109…5e9cbacked Yes15c360.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.6218033.3%60 W · 120 L+3.7wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cd9…bccebacked Yes12c357.8$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.455438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b78…104fbacked Yes4c352.17$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.5230%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2560…d5fcbacked Yes6c345.33$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.721233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d12…bdf6backed Yes16c345$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.22128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x72f7…1870backed Yes15c339.18$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.63911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-65.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76b0…338abacked Yes13c337.13$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.95843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-18.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4f7…0331backed Yes18c334.81$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa69a…47aabacked Yes7c330.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.8330%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f2d…6ae3backed Yes35c324.56$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.920%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5505…3a83backed Yes22c317.33$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-61.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc76…ab88backed Yes16c316.09$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c313.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.071,1366.3%72 W · 1,064 L-25.9wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-55.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a26…0402backed Yes5c306.12$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe89…b88cbacked Yes33c303.03$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015243.4%66 W · 86 L+9.6wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+14.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc0a6…2ab9backed Yes17c300$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514257.1%24 W · 18 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+27.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x9265…4ab7backed Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-33.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83c5…0299backed No74c299.99$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb1a2…57febacked No57c299.97$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.998355.4%46 W · 37 L+7.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd651…8dcfbacked Yes4c282$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid-28.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51a4…0e62backed Yes15c279.33$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.92138.1%8 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-23.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes12c269.93$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.937740.6%153 W · 224 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c268.25$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.1196319.8%191 W · 772 L-32.4wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-50%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f99…c013backed Yes19c266.18$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4541…37b8backed Yes8c258.33$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe3d0…4e7dbacked Yes16c250$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405742.1%24 W · 33 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e9e…c4efbacked Yes9c249.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.85639.3%22 W · 34 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfad4…a210backed Yes10c249.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.997428.4%21 W · 53 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5eeb…2965backed Yes21c236.38$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.6430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x490f…17e5backed Yes10c224$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2618322.4%41 W · 142 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-18.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd496…b759backed Yes6c220$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2279…d2f8backed Yes16c219$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-54.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a02…6ed1backed Yes19c215.79$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4160%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f61…c8aabacked Yes35c214.29$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes14c200$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.68517.6%15 W · 70 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick26cpaid-46%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2649…1f65backed Yes47c198.3$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe386…5aa5backed Yes15c193.33$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc3a…3f1bbacked Yes7c189.41$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f86…54d6backed Yes13c180.78$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.873441.2%14 W · 20 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick36cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b03…8bfcbacked Yes14c178.57$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba3e…0f98backed Yes12c175.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1a87…4e00backed Yes10c170.65$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.541921.1%4 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-29.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83a7…12ddbacked Yes17c170$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick36cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x74c3…bbe6backed Yes31c150$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474522.2%10 W · 35 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-37.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f88…bd2bbacked Yes17c141.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.121315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c97…0004backed Yes18c138.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-22.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0a75…ea97backed Yes15c130.83$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed Yes20c125$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516544.8%74 W · 91 L+10.9wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+30.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5f5b…b598backed No67c119.76$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.21070%7 W · 3 L+2.1wins+0.21per pick49cpaid+12.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb7a7…9187backed Yes17c116.17$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bec…3fa4backed Yes18c116.11$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-68.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2968…7488backed Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68c7…c12dbacked Yes19c107.57$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.5wins+0.36per pick21cpaid+185.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.