TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-03?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,149,002
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,369,412

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,149,002 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 272 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x18d2…81e0backed No43c232,557$100,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$132,557.592646.2%12 W · 14 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick58cpaid-21.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd065…93e8backed Yes1c197,726$2,451 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,450.86862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick63cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Yes59c42,656$25,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,167.151258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf980…6528backed Yes57c40,000$22,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,80010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Yes56c34,262$19,215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,215.0213857.2%79 W · 59 L+8.6wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e4f…651bbacked No48c33,350$16,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,3421100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x163a…d5cebacked No48c32,855$15,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,084.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+139.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0132…dfdabacked Yes52c32,855$17,085 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,084.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaf96…d7a5backed No48c27,390$13,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,242.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe91e…e3c1backed Yes52c25,850$13,442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,44210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Yes57c25,000$14,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,25013547.4%64 W · 71 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x571c…c16abacked Yes59c16,949$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00010848.1%52 W · 56 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…1dd2backed No43c14,460$6,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,280.896953.6%37 W · 32 L+7.7wins+0.11per pick43cpaid+27.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed No54c12,753$6,842 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,911.0120744%91 W · 116 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-24.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked No43c12,110$5,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,945.0811454.4%62 W · 52 L+8.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+11.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0269…128ebacked Yes55c9,148$5,031 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,031.362556%14 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked No39c8,603$3,397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,205.9538645.3%175 W · 211 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Yes50c6,849$3,391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,391.3979650.8%404 W · 392 L+28.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+9.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked No48c6,819$3,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,540.241,20450.7%610 W · 594 L+1.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b7e…ce6dbacked No43c6,129$2,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,493.53966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+26.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7239…6591backed Yes51c5,869$2,993 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,993.181457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d7…25e9backed No42c5,663$2,383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,280.4937652.4%197 W · 179 L+27.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+9.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb1e4…b63bbacked Yes52c5,390$2,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,802.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-62.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9a8c…ba13backed Yes57c5,369$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,060.162268.2%15 W · 7 L+2.3wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+19.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc91a…c6b8backed Yes57c5,096$2,904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,903.784843.8%21 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes56c5,000$2,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,79041437.9%157 W · 257 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-0.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Yes63c4,764$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0004146.3%19 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9602…4d02backed No37c4,623$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,907.1756453.9%304 W · 260 L+27.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+4.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd656…d127backed No36c3,883$1,393 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,490.47633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick23cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58a8…52febacked Yes77c3,675$2,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,845.51366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick76cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3def…08b4backed Yes54c3,593$1,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,937.851942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcd9e…4348backed Yes58c3,378$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99ee…dd52backed No48c3,100$1,488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,612333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed No39c3,000$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,819.963256.3%18 W · 14 L+3.3wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+4.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe6e6…79b5backed Yes12c2,813$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.564372.1%31 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37d8…b6ddbacked Yes57c2,632$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50011548.7%56 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9a…06d0backed Yes58c2,527$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,465.432965.5%19 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick64cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x279a…c95fbacked Yes59c2,465$1,463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,463.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Yes50c2,309$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1502138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-17.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeecd…4fefbacked Yes57c2,065$1,177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,177.335048%24 W · 26 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed No49c2,032$994 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,037.928355.5%157 W · 126 L+17.4wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+14.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes3c1,942$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.828646.5%40 W · 46 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xed61…9aa3backed Yes57c1,838$1,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,040.4330666%202 W · 104 L+57.3wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+76.4%equal weight69+0.17 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No62c1,791$1,106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.5879639.6%315 W · 481 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd44c…ab91backed No48c1,683$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.082860.7%17 W · 11 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0fae…3488backed Yes30c1,542$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.742347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3ba8…f9f7backed Yes55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8252245.5%10 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe256…12f8backed Yes57c1,284$732 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$731.881450%7 W · 7 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x649f…993ebacked No43c1,200$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6848750.6%44 W · 43 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f24…f47bbacked Yes57c1,160$661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$661825%2 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0ff…ca90backed No42c1,151$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$662.5421353.1%113 W · 100 L+5.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf62d…d3a0backed No54c1,111$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$511.1112053.3%64 W · 56 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71c0…fd11backed Yes59c1,045$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.552334.8%8 W · 15 L-3.3wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-35.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd2b8…9cafbacked Yes53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.4wins-0.27per pick38cpaid-72.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x62a8…97d0backed Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5708453.6%45 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c81…dcd3backed Yes57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57017745.8%81 W · 96 L+11.7wins+0.07per pick39cpaid+13.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd69a…81eabacked Yes58c951.72$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5523935.9%14 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-21.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x60a5…4446backed Yes53c945.57$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfdb5…44bdbacked Yes53c945.25$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002445.8%11 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Yes53c944.47$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014544.1%64 W · 81 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7221…df5ebacked Yes78c879.08$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$685.683043.3%13 W · 17 L-3.8wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-42.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Yes60c878.97$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527.385238.5%20 W · 32 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7936…9306backed Yes56c874.3$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.611225%3 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-44.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x616b…72f7backed Yes19c869.78$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.792025%5 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-45.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe742…7559backed Yes66c860.15$569 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$568.685253.8%28 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-13.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9443…e5ecbacked No48c857.57$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.94862.5%5 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick38cpaid+47.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a37…2c5fbacked Yes59c847.46$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick60cpaid-38.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Yes53c837.34$445 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$445.3214953.7%80 W · 69 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6418…f8a6backed Yes56c820.33$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$458.111250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0c…ad7cbacked Yes74c800$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5922969%20 W · 9 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick60cpaid+14.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Yes59c785.34$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.357835.9%28 W · 50 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24b9…bcb1backed Yes8c770.11$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.96229.1%2 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-44%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa088…d438backed Yes60c704.58$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-22.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25eb…8ce7backed Yes46c626.98$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.8417447.7%83 W · 91 L+7.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2392…0d4bbacked Yes5c613.33$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.27850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x83d4…ad01backed No43c603.28$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$343.871855.6%10 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick43cpaid+34.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x621d…f11ebacked Yes17c560.3$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9720%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae2d…8f7bbacked Yes37c540.54$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1470…83bdbacked Yes59c530$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.19per pick52cpaid-57.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfb4f…5b56backed Yes56c529.64$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.69666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde44…2adcbacked Yes77c520.48$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes47c511.67$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.95442.6%23 W · 31 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0fa3…072dbacked No40c505.57$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.795558.2%32 W · 23 L+8.0wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x9961…adcbbacked Yes53c505.47$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.940%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3303…b5e3backed No45c500.44$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.244257.1%24 W · 18 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+20.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x26ae…97b8backed No50c432.99$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.5852060.4%314 W · 206 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ebb…061abacked Yes48c416.67$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20013552.6%71 W · 64 L-5.8wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-6.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe6d9…ed60backed Yes53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2128747.1%41 W · 46 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed No44c392.09$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.5727752%144 W · 133 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0e2…a27ebacked Yes59c386.41$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.9820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8aaf…1f8ebacked Yes52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Yes52c373$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.566051.7%31 W · 29 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb7b…1476backed Yes54c372.63$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003435.3%12 W · 22 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-31.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xd55c…34febacked Yes49c367.04$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.859255.4%51 W · 41 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17cb…3ab8backed Yes63c363.66$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.6513834.1%47 W · 91 L-11.9wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-23.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3013…e5b2backed Yes56c357.14$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008842%37 W · 51 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc84…3e67backed Yes76c345.25$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.391435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick48cpaid-41.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x98cc…7470backed Yes58c332.33$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.752254.5%12 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c46…be29backed Yes53c325.3$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.4132736.4%119 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-19.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcf2e…b606backed Yes47c319.22$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.