Premier League · resolved market
Will Arsenal vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc35ab50abcc912f770c90dbfefac1cf68b512f2ad920ad41c0093f9ac788aa0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $45,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,477
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $45,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd99c…1006backed No | 75c | 9,994$7,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d9…3d3cbacked No | 75c | 9,994$7,496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,498.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca0…f349backed Yes | 25c | 9,994$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3aba…4a14backed Yes | 25c | 9,994$2,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,498.5 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed Yes | 13c | 5,150$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.22 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 61c | 4,707$2,863 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,843.94 | 386 | 45.3%175 W · 211 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 76c | 2,097$1,594 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$503.32 | 135 | 47.4%64 W · 71 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed61…9aa3backed Yes | 27c | 1,604$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.08 | 306 | 66%202 W · 104 L | +57.3wins | +0.19per pick | 47cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x71c0…fd11backed Yes | 54c | 1,454$784 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$783.75 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 24c | 1,275$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.52 | 91 | 48.4%44 W · 47 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9a…06d0backed Yes | 60c | 1,245$753 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 68c | 1,117$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.7 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 55c | 1,024$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.59 | 796 | 50.8%404 W · 392 L | +28.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x686e…af8cbacked Yes | 24c | 833.33$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 88 | 25%22 W · 66 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23d…ef9bbacked No | 80c | 830.01$664 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x920d…38adbacked Yes | 23c | 788$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae2d…8f7bbacked Yes | 56c | 714.29$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c7…053ebacked Yes | 20c | 700$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd55c…34febacked Yes | 24c | 585.82$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.6 | 92 | 55.4%51 W · 41 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 150 | 25.3%38 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9b…0f44backed Yes | 29c | 344.83$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 64 | 25%16 W · 48 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed No | 53c | 319.99$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.06 | 207 | 44%91 W · 116 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ad…d11dbacked Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 47c | 296.37$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.08 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3303…b5e3backed No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +20.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc236…fa9fbacked Yes | 31c | 244.02$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.65 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed Yes | 46c | 222.97$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.69 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1268…94e0backed No | 78c | 220.09$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.42 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65a6…3e59backed Yes | 24c | 208.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 169 | 53.3%90 W · 79 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc430…3c45backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb295…4ee4backed Yes | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4b…fcd5backed Yes | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 76c | 157.85$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.41 | 520 | 60.4%314 W · 206 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…0f62backed No | 76c | 153.09$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed No | 65c | 104.1$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.66 | 149 | 53.7%80 W · 69 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ac…957dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +38%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda0f…f0e7backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 86 | 46.5%40 W · 46 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5f95…9bd4backed Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8011…e98ebacked No | 53c | 94.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +8.7wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +103.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe742…7559backed Yes | 23c | 74.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87de…42bfbacked No | 75c | 73.08$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +70.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d03…4366backed Yes | 26c | 73.08$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f2d…c13bbacked Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 53c | 66.04$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbc…056cbacked Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4591…d19ebacked No | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.3 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1470…83bdbacked No | 78c | 55$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.1 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed No | 72c | 53.27$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f7b…8927backed Yes | 53c | 53.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 22c | 52.77$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 660 | 31.2%206 W · 454 L | -13.0wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Yes | 23c | 51.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 138 | 57.2%79 W · 59 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7600…49e5backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 99 | 49.5%49 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…aa94backed Yes | 26c | 42.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 133 | 54.9%73 W · 60 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcace…f2f6backed Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked No | 76c | 34.21$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.21 | 123 | 57.7%71 W · 52 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed No | 75c | 33.33$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 154 | 61%94 W · 60 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed No | 72c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 187 | 52.9%99 W · 88 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cf4…15ddbacked No | 62c | 20.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.66 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b69…e32abacked Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal vs. Bournemouth end in a draw?this page
- Will Arsenal win on 2025-05-03?No won
- Will Bournemouth win on 2025-05-03?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.