TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Dogecoin above $0.18 on May 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,643

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfeb5…a393backed Yes31c2,372$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,624.941250%6 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+31.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No40c1,100$436 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.516740.7%68 W · 99 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3b6f…340bbacked No42c888.64$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.43650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-28.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ee2…46e1backed Yes67c638.14$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.52862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.20per pick42cpaid+43.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No3c568.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.487663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97a7…49f7backed No76c400$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302540%2 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick65cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6e86…0c43backed No3c400$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc8d…5232backed Yes29c341$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.112100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.61per pick40cpaid+172.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3872…cd31backed No79c291.35$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Yes47c267.55$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No42c255.01$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.6111430.7%35 W · 79 L-15.2wins-0.13per pick44cpaid-47.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5e42…9003backed Yes22c200.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.04250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+128.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes35c137.89$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.0133329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69eb…46e5backed Yes10c112.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.82147.1%1 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-27.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76bc…205bbacked No62c108.93$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e2f…4f92backed Yes22c90.91$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec28…10ebbacked Yes69c76.51$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…6466backed No73c76$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f6f…d295backed Yes27c76$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.73per pick27cpaid+270.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b86…53d7backed No62c74.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5505…3a83backed Yes55c63.39$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.392100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes49c56.78$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.921240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc615…c02fbacked No37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b7…e788backed No78c51.08$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe5e9…9f82backed No76c32.89$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f72…740abacked Yes52c26.97$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.97250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-3.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xcccd…5bc9backed No68c24.21$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x257f…12fcbacked No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa79c…a637backed No78c18.29$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b2…53f9backed No76c17.51$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacb9…d51abacked No78c16.92$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa719…8f40backed No77c16.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf206…fa93backed No78c16.65$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x45c6…46b5backed No78c16.6$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15fc…77cdbacked No75c16.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb78…a3bfbacked No79c16.57$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9477…0bdbbacked No79c16.56$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc3ef…dcdbbacked No79c16.47$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07a1…93cdbacked No77c16.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9c0…3420backed No78c16.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x34b0…7abebacked No75c16.2$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0083…6134backed No76c16.09$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd937…cc27backed No79c15.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf529…caf9backed No76c15.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x583c…5d22backed No77c15.77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90ad…1a57backed No75c15.73$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22e8…193abacked No78c15.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x37a6…6c75backed No78c15.67$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdefb…e05dbacked No79c15.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb0e…3686backed No76c15.62$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb18b…bd26backed No77c15.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd9…e7c5backed No77c15.6$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.0110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1c77…5ea9backed No77c15.57$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ce…25f6backed No77c15.49$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc24…e86fbacked No71c15.45$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdaac…ad70backed No78c15.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa899…da81backed No79c14.95$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb457…fcfbbacked No78c14.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7921…abbabacked No77c14.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf747…0600backed No76c14.93$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa10f…e2e9backed No80c14.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb188…c186backed No78c14.79$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cd…4673backed No79c14.7$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x80be…cf16backed No78c14.67$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa329…27e8backed No78c14.6$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa2a…4b5ebacked No79c14.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaeba…4ca5backed No78c14.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d63…ec2abacked No78c14.15$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca5…9997backed No77c14.08$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfd2…f970backed No80c14.04$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5192…d9cdbacked No79c13.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3988…b7e9backed No78c13.94$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a18…ba97backed No79c13.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9461…1328backed No78c13.91$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x835c…2f7ebacked No79c13.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x76d6…9ad2backed No78c13.85$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd750…90bdbacked No77c13.81$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0164…01debacked No79c13.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15a4…5a99backed No77c13.73$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.77per pick77cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8f1…49f6backed No78c13.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8805…5500backed No75c13.71$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.75per pick75cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x172a…fa31backed No78c13.56$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf25c…e3b9backed No76c13.53$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x640a…6a29backed No80c13.35$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd303…f2ddbacked No79c13.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6364…dbe6backed No78c13.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d7…dc32backed No79c13.11$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2306…2840backed No79c13.06$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x110e…2295backed No79c13.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d49…9191backed No79c12.7$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.