College Football · resolved market
California vs. San Diego State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfe2b39eaf8209a7d0ce6c35ddc78e39069f70f9eb68270b1b9ef2c8de1ba2be4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Stateof California, San Diego State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $114,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x481b…74c1backed California | 51c | 49,427$24,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,983.38 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed San Diego State | 47c | 33,243$15,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17,670.75 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed California | 58c | 12,224$7,129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,128.6 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed San Diego State | 49c | 9,838$4,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,009.47 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked California | 36c | 5,821$2,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,109.25 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked San Diego State | 54c | 4,571$2,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.93 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed San Diego State | 59c | 3,987$2,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.34 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked California | 0c | 3,490$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 81 | 4.9%4 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed California | 40c | 3,438$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,379.14 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed San Diego State | 68c | 3,015$2,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$963.23 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3d…35d0backed San Diego State | 41c | 2,260$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,339.74 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed California | 61c | 1,642$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f2…5495backed San Diego State | 40c | 1,600$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$960.9 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed San Diego State | 48c | 1,427$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.84 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed San Diego State | 18c | 1,356$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked San Diego State | 31c | 1,290$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890.32 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…2f22backed California | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked San Diego State | 60c | 808.71$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.96 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed0e…b305backed San Diego State | 36c | 757.5$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$484.88 | 74 | 14.9%11 W · 63 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked San Diego State | 68c | 738.11$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.11 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked San Diego State | 56c | 737.59$411 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.19 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked San Diego State | 19c | 688.23$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.91 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecb…19babacked California | 25c | 555.79$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.28 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked San Diego State | 18c | 500$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed6…d826backed California | 4c | 319.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x613b…823abacked San Diego State | 39c | 296.88$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.82 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed San Diego State | 46c | 285$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.55 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed San Diego State | 28c | 248.7$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.06 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked San Diego State | 14c | 200$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed San Diego State | 62c | 191.77$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed California | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 188 | 58%109 W · 79 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked San Diego State | 40c | 163.57$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.57 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed San Diego State | 18c | 150$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed San Diego State | 74c | 141.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.33 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed California | 24c | 101.32$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ed94backed California | 35c | 78.46$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.46 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked San Diego State | 76c | 72.37$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa468…816ebacked San Diego State | 70c | 70.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4aa…5e57backed San Diego State | 79c | 57.16$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +78.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked San Diego State | 27c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.5 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59e5…0146backed San Diego State | 43c | 39.82$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed California | 63c | 31.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed San Diego State | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- California vs. San Diego Statethis page
- California vs. San Diego State: O/U 46.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.