TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Bautista vs. Mix

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Bautistaof Bautista, Mix
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$260,946
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$280,685

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,946 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 236 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…42f2backed Bautista40c35,587$14,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,352.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2c4…49a9backed Mix 60c35,587$21,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,352.210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Bautista47c34,797$16,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,346.576051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Mix 59c30,161$17,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,842.222343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Bautista38c29,579$11,179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,400.322548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Mix 62c28,784$17,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,837.9435253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Bautista37c22,353$8,361 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,992.551428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Bautista37c19,601$7,264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,336.8914857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Mix 63c10,000$6,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,30013453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Bautista38c8,151$3,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,065.3616049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x80d6…d716backed Bautista39c5,781$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,531.42751.9%14 W · 13 L+1.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8806…6a9bbacked Bautista36c5,161$1,876 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,284.851060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Mix 63c5,064$3,184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,183.5613039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Mix 63c5,000$3,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,1506050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Bautista54c4,796$2,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,205.1411540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed Mix 55c3,645$2,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,000.961330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Mix 13c3,285$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$416.5214929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Mix 64c3,200$2,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04424356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed Mix 62c2,523$1,564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,564.261533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Mix 63c2,381$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5002540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b97…76b1backed Mix 62c2,016$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,25020%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Mix 61c2,000$1,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2204742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Mix 29c1,927$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5503938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Mix 63c1,800$1,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1343458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc092…0cd9backed Bautista38c1,708$649 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,058.8912134.7%42 W · 79 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-12.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Mix 62c1,612$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Bautista37c1,600$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,00823537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Mix 62c1,488$923 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$922.8425251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Mix 23c1,301$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.3710443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Mix 62c1,281$788 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$787.9612159.5%72 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Bautista50c1,151$577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$573.6136745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Bautista38c1,002$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$620.9811140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0688…d67dbacked Mix 63c1,000$630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6305265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Mix 62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6201618.8%3 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Mix 28c989$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.581723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked Mix 63c952.38$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Mix 62c850$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5278348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked Bautista38c746.74$281 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$465.3219531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Mix 63c719$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.9713041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Mix 62c665.98$413 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$412.916943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb0d…9ff3backed Mix 63c663.67$418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$418.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Bautista38c646.07$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.5714129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Mix 62c643.32$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40231855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd313…a320backed Bautista78c641.03$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.03333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-57.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Bautista38c631.58$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.589744.3%43 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd986…1320backed Bautista38c600$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3721850%9 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Mix 62c564.11$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35035564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Mix 63c550$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.513044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Mix 63c516.39$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3259950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Mix 63c500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3156547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x477f…6c45backed Mix 61c500$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30527743%119 W · 158 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Mix 62c500$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31039959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Bautista39c499.99$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.994042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4931…e11cbacked Mix 62c481.31$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Mix 59c437.41$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.234067.5%27 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Mix 60c415.63$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.38366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Mix 62c401.71$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.6648749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Bautista78c399.99$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8821554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Bautista38c394$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.2810452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x708d…4a16backed Mix 65c367.24$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.1930%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Bautista38c363.16$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5618141.4%75 W · 106 L+10.4wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc38…e7c2backed Mix 62c322.58$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20012639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae7…91debacked Mix 63c317.7$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0646backed Mix 63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x01f1…276cbacked Mix 63c317.46$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20040%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Mix 62c309.43$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.337960.8%48 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Mix 63c300$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18924862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Mix 14c300$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.29336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a27…fe44backed Bautista38c300$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1861216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x239a…a0c6backed Bautista77c300$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.14540%18 W · 27 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Mix 62c299.05$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4156450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Mix 22c293.12$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.4921031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22c7…ca3ebacked Mix 42c270.19$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.225736.8%21 W · 36 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Mix 63c270.16$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1703158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed Mix 62c259.99$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.195052%26 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Bautista78c256.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.733171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Bautista37c250$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.6133948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Mix 61c222$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.429062.2%56 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Mix 18c200.8$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1418145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Bautista38c199.99$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12428743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Mix 15c198.2$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.45120%0 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7879…256fbacked Mix 63c190.99$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2d98…af0ebacked Mix 62c180$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.620%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Mix 61c179.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.798256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Mix 61c170.83$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0653956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1347…bc3dbacked Mix 61c170.7$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.13475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+23.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Mix 62c161.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011138.7%43 W · 68 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xad4a…ddb8backed Mix 61c161.29$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.39785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick59cpaid+58.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Mix 64c156.25$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed Mix 63c146.67$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.43240.6%13 W · 19 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Mix 61c142$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.6216745.5%76 W · 91 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4bb…c96bbacked Mix 62c128.03$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.38837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-30.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x625c…a14ebacked Mix 62c120.97$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1467…f95ebacked Mix 62c120.97$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Mix 61c120$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.213160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5532…c6dbbacked Mix 61c113.11$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$696031.7%19 W · 41 L-4.5wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-2.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x02b7…33cbbacked Mix 63c111.11$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$701637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.1wins0.00per pick38cpaid+8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Bautista38c103$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.8613953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x589a…7c26backed Bautista39c102.56$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.56580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+88.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Bautista38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6232545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.