UFC · resolved market
Murzakanov vs. Ribeiro
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x26bed7944ce94dabe2459fd17de0ac68bfb5291d640b3efba53d4931a6ab5318
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Murzakanovof Murzakanov, Ribeiro
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $176,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $195,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $176,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba4e…44a1backed Ribeiro | 52c | 34,875$18,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,135 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4796…af7ebacked Murzakanov | 48c | 34,875$16,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,135 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58d…9373backed Ribeiro | 15c | 23,456$3,518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,518.4 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Ribeiro | 14c | 19,979$2,797 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,797 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…d1e6backed Ribeiro | 4c | 6,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Ribeiro | 15c | 5,512$848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$847.78 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Ribeiro | 17c | 5,114$873 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$873.43 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Ribeiro | 16c | 4,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad25…7678backed Ribeiro | 17c | 2,150$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a14…e79fbacked Ribeiro | 17c | 2,004$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$340.62 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed Ribeiro | 13c | 1,717$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Ribeiro | 14c | 1,600$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Ribeiro | 17c | 1,200$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.99 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Murzakanov | 77c | 978.17$758 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.47 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed Ribeiro | 29c | 942.06$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.13 | 87 | 51.7%45 W · 42 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ribeiro | 13c | 931.02$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.03 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c72…5c26backed Ribeiro | 18c | 847.24$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 104 | 52.9%55 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked Ribeiro | 13c | 768.15$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.99 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked Ribeiro | 16c | 674.88$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71e1…c440backed Ribeiro | 17c | 647.06$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.2wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Ribeiro | 17c | 600$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Ribeiro | 14c | 535.71$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…b09dbacked Ribeiro | 19c | 532.32$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Ribeiro | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Ribeiro | 20c | 450.73$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.19 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc092…0cd9backed Ribeiro | 18c | 438.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 121 | 34.7%42 W · 79 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Ribeiro | 13c | 390$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.16 | 139 | 53.2%74 W · 65 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Murzakanov | 77c | 270.39$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.14 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Ribeiro | 17c | 250$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…6993backed Ribeiro | 16c | 239.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 235 | 37%87 W · 148 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…5295backed Murzakanov | 71c | 236$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.04 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Ribeiro | 13c | 234.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.54 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Murzakanov | 78c | 204$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe542…0a37backed Murzakanov | 62c | 200$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 169 | 55.6%94 W · 75 L | +23.8wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +59.8%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Ribeiro | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Ribeiro | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb58…86a4backed Ribeiro | 17c | 137.06$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebc3…2626backed Murzakanov | 80c | 130$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 82 | 56.1%46 W · 36 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Ribeiro | 17c | 114.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Ribeiro | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.66 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Ribeiro | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Ribeiro | 15c | 86.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02cf…36bdbacked Ribeiro | 16c | 81.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc633…b4e7backed Ribeiro | 19c | 78.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.89 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Ribeiro | 14c | 76.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Ribeiro | 22c | 63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Ribeiro | 19c | 57.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Murzakanov | 78c | 51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.17 | 104 | 39.4%41 W · 63 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7207…b2b8backed Murzakanov | 80c | 22.1$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Murzakanov | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Murzakanov vs. Ribeirothis page
- Bautista vs. MixBautista won
- Dvalishvili vs. O'MalleyDvalishvili won
- Gastelum vs. PyferPyfer won
- Luque vs. HollandHolland won
- Mederos vs. ChoinskiMederos won
- Pena vs. HarrisonHarrison won
- Salkilld vs. AshmouzSalkilld won
- Saragih vs. Sang YooSang Yoo won
- Silva vs. VanVan won
- Spivac vs. Cortes-AcostaCortes-Acosta won
- Williams vs. GustafssonGustafsson won
- da Silva vs. CongCong won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.