UFC · resolved market
da Silva vs. Cong
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0a026624540f93da1057da8e404de632fdad1fc5c3df93f70d4b46e81515a586
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Congof da Silva, Cong
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,644
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,644 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Cong | 80c | 4,806$3,838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$968.11 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed da Silva | 19c | 4,246$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813.39 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…9996backed da Silva | 1c | 3,442$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked da Silva | 15c | 3,334$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.04 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked da Silva | 19c | 2,747$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.38 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked da Silva | 19c | 2,710$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.03 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed da Silva | 10c | 1,879$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.58 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae36…8fb5backed Cong | 80c | 1,800$1,440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaa…cbeabacked Cong | 80c | 1,763$1,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.53 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed da Silva | 21c | 1,330$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.2 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked da Silva | 16c | 1,081$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.03 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked da Silva | 17c | 1,020$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed da Silva | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked da Silva | 18c | 757.99$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.33 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17f…50aabacked da Silva | 17c | 629.94$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.09 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dd6…f5f4backed da Silva | 22c | 600$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.84 | 540 | 56.7%306 W · 234 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed da Silva | 10c | 508.54$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed da Silva | 17c | 500$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed da Silva | 14c | 473.91$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed da Silva | 23c | 469.32$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.87 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Cong | 77c | 350$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed da Silva | 18c | 341.57$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked da Silva | 8c | 335.42$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 210 | 31.9%67 W · 143 L | -7.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked da Silva | 16c | 300$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed da Silva | 15c | 199.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2e90backed da Silva | 17c | 176.47$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed da Silva | 18c | 111.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Cong | 77c | 104$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 367 | 45.8%168 W · 199 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed da Silva | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked da Silva | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed da Silva | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked da Silva | 15c | 99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed da Silva | 23c | 74$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.02 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked da Silva | 25c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5508…4380backed da Silva | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…dc1abacked Cong | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4232…e33cbacked da Silva | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b12…f7f9backed Cong | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- da Silva vs. Congthis page
- Bautista vs. MixBautista won
- Dvalishvili vs. O'MalleyDvalishvili won
- Gastelum vs. PyferPyfer won
- Luque vs. HollandHolland won
- Mederos vs. ChoinskiMederos won
- Murzakanov vs. RibeiroMurzakanov won
- Pena vs. HarrisonHarrison won
- Salkilld vs. AshmouzSalkilld won
- Saragih vs. Sang YooSang Yoo won
- Silva vs. VanVan won
- Spivac vs. Cortes-AcostaCortes-Acosta won
- Williams vs. GustafssonGustafsson won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.