UFC · resolved market
Silva vs. Van
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf60781982c7959e12bf9d226c05eede45c710c0e8aaa508e2204778c0bfaedad
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Van of Silva, Van
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $185,712
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $240,230
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $185,712 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Silva | 15c | 43,447$6,329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,329.48 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe38e…c29dbacked Silva | 14c | 14,707$2,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,059.99 | 148 | 57.4%85 W · 63 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ed…fa48backed Silva | 17c | 10,165$1,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.62 | 111 | 40.5%45 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Silva | 16c | 6,077$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945.4 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Silva | 17c | 5,165$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$878.7 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574e…3ef1backed Silva | 15c | 4,000$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32e…890bbacked Silva | 15c | 3,460$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.03 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Silva | 10c | 2,666$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.8 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481a…d1e6backed Silva | 12c | 2,022$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.27 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Silva | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Silva | 7c | 2,000$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 24cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Silva | 14c | 2,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbffc…1f45backed Silva | 14c | 1,850$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Silva | 13c | 1,191$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.84 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Silva | 15c | 1,191$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.62 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Silva | 1c | 1,023$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 101 | 2%2 W · 99 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 6cpaid | -76.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe411…04c5backed Silva | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Silva | 14c | 1,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Silva | 14c | 999.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Silva | 13c | 999.99$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Silva | 3c | 900$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Silva | 10c | 800$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aba…b09dbacked Silva | 18c | 667.47$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…6eebbacked Silva | 16c | 625.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4343…3be2backed Silva | 15c | 519.89$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Silva | 15c | 500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Silva | 4c | 490.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf33f…085cbacked Silva | 14c | 401$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 79 | 21.5%17 W · 62 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Silva | 14c | 300$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7a2…e144backed Silva | 16c | 299.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7842…4d91backed Silva | 14c | 280.45$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 80 | 36.3%29 W · 51 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c8…ecaebacked Silva | 15c | 258.62$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1102…af36backed Silva | 17c | 225$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 487 | 49.1%239 W · 248 L | -8.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a6…8c21backed Silva | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc31a…174ebacked Silva | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 97 | 44.3%43 W · 54 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x477f…6c45backed Silva | 13c | 200$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +10.6wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f0…e173backed Silva | 18c | 150$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe344…0ab9backed Silva | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…5b14backed Silva | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Silva | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…f563backed Silva | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Silva | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866d…4d7dbacked Silva | 18c | 99.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Silva | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Silva | 15c | 86.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Silva | 19c | 77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Silva vs. Vanthis page
- Bautista vs. MixBautista won
- Dvalishvili vs. O'MalleyDvalishvili won
- Gastelum vs. PyferPyfer won
- Luque vs. HollandHolland won
- Mederos vs. ChoinskiMederos won
- Murzakanov vs. RibeiroMurzakanov won
- Pena vs. HarrisonHarrison won
- Salkilld vs. AshmouzSalkilld won
- Saragih vs. Sang YooSang Yoo won
- Spivac vs. Cortes-AcostaCortes-Acosta won
- Williams vs. GustafssonGustafsson won
- da Silva vs. CongCong won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.