UFC · resolved market
Salkilld vs. Ashmouz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x736e09aea9c5012c6f0b586532f58d15c6531df7b86a1215845273d7d5e5385d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Salkilldof Salkilld, Ashmouz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,005
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4f5b…d411backed Salkilld | 79c | 10,443$8,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,192.98 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked Ashmouz | 21c | 10,000$2,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,100 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Salkilld | 78c | 8,333$6,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,823.25 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Salkilld | 80c | 5,332$4,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,089.75 | 40 | 67.5%27 W · 13 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Ashmouz | 21c | 4,734$971 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$971.16 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Ashmouz | 22c | 4,538$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Ashmouz | 20c | 3,229$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$661.61 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7455…93adbacked Ashmouz | 19c | 2,085$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.28 | 195 | 31.8%62 W · 133 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Ashmouz | 16c | 1,332$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.46 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdd8…2ee5backed Ashmouz | 20c | 1,190$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.06 | 104 | 47.1%49 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Ashmouz | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 115 | 40%46 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Ashmouz | 28c | 969.31$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9304…f693backed Ashmouz | 20c | 711.14$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.21 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Salkilld | 77c | 627.36$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.29 | 184 | 53.8%99 W · 85 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ashmouz | 22c | 594.03$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.7 | 332 | 53.3%177 W · 155 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Salkilld | 79c | 500$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Ashmouz | 21c | 499.99$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Ashmouz | 21c | 475$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Salkilld | 71c | 457.45$326 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.49 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Salkilld | 80c | 400$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Salkilld | 80c | 313.81$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Ashmouz | 22c | 308.82$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433f…a0dcbacked Ashmouz | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 88 | 26.1%23 W · 65 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Salkilld | 79c | 289$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.69 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Ashmouz | 10c | 279.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Ashmouz | 19c | 263.16$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 186 | 44.1%82 W · 104 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f1…bd6abacked Salkilld | 79c | 256.26$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.91 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0dc…84e0backed Salkilld | 74c | 219.06$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.15 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4574…ab3ebacked Ashmouz | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 287 | 43.9%126 W · 161 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Ashmouz | 28c | 200$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 91 | 24.2%22 W · 69 L | -5.3wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Salkilld | 79c | 185.98$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.52 | 147 | 51%75 W · 72 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0434…a98cbacked Ashmouz | 13c | 180$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 264 | 51.9%137 W · 127 L | +23.0wins | +0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Salkilld | 80c | 164.29$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d6…4fd2backed Salkilld | 80c | 154.5$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.9 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Ashmouz | 19c | 150$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 564 | 50.5%285 W · 279 L | +6.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Ashmouz | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd4…ce48backed Ashmouz | 22c | 136.36$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.8wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2516…f107backed Salkilld | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 66cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Salkilld | 79c | 124.55$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 143 | 55.9%80 W · 63 L | +7.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Ashmouz | 21c | 121$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf8…7f09backed Ashmouz | 24c | 108$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.72 | 140 | 52.1%73 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…ec83backed Ashmouz | 20c | 105$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 223 | 42.2%94 W · 129 L | -9.1wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0341…3ff3backed Ashmouz | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3eeb…dc1abacked Ashmouz | 18c | 90$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5825…4ffbbacked Ashmouz | 28c | 74.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 119 | 42.9%51 W · 68 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Ashmouz | 27c | 69.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 223 | 34.1%76 W · 147 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ashmouz | 17c | 69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 194 | 18.6%36 W · 158 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65d9…8608backed Ashmouz | 22c | 66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11b2…7c70backed Ashmouz | 20c | 55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Ashmouz | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33b3…9f56backed Salkilld | 71c | 46$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60ff…5ec3backed Salkilld | 80c | 41.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.25 | 100 | 40%40 W · 60 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41da…ad6dbacked Salkilld | 79c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb4…9653backed Salkilld | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 65 | 63.1%41 W · 24 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21af…673fbacked Salkilld | 80c | 37.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0646backed Salkilld | 79c | 32.91$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97be…416dbacked Salkilld | 80c | 25.15$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Salkilld | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 80 | 60%48 W · 32 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Salkilld | 78c | 22.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed Salkilld | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 78cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe07c…551dbacked Salkilld | 79c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.2 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -5.6wins | -0.16per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5d2…317bbacked Salkilld | 76c | 14.55$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.55 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Salkilld vs. Ashmouzthis page
- Bautista vs. MixBautista won
- Dvalishvili vs. O'MalleyDvalishvili won
- Gastelum vs. PyferPyfer won
- Luque vs. HollandHolland won
- Mederos vs. ChoinskiMederos won
- Murzakanov vs. RibeiroMurzakanov won
- Pena vs. HarrisonHarrison won
- Saragih vs. Sang YooSang Yoo won
- Silva vs. VanVan won
- Spivac vs. Cortes-AcostaCortes-Acosta won
- Williams vs. GustafssonGustafsson won
- da Silva vs. CongCong won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.