TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Luque vs. Holland

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Holland of Luque, Holland
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$314,052
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$352,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $314,052 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 204 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0834…2a7ebacked Luque38c130,034$49,955 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49,955333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Holland 63c49,570$31,133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,436.61428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Luque37c42,076$15,494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,494.2135253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed Holland 61c37,891$23,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,876.372548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Holland 62c31,787$19,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,004.3114857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Holland 64c25,270$16,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,002.616049.4%79 W · 81 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a14…e79fbacked Luque36c24,723$8,801 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,801.112948.3%14 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Holland 61c24,683$15,119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,564.34067.5%27 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8806…6a9bbacked Holland 62c20,000$12,392 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,607.881060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Luque37c11,000$4,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,089.9922259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked Luque37c10,000$3,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70013453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cbd…6355backed Holland 64c8,926$5,713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,213.45450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-28.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Holland 64c8,348$5,343 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,005.42366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Luque36c8,298$3,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,025.562343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Holland 63c6,854$4,318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,535.96050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed Holland 62c6,281$3,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,407.17250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Holland 63c5,556$3,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,055.567653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1ac…08d5backed Holland 63c5,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,8506248.4%30 W · 32 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+15.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Holland 66c4,276$2,831 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,444.966051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Holland 63c3,515$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,317.0818453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Luque33c3,500$1,155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,15510447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Luque39c3,386$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.491723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Holland 68c3,290$2,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,066.6854056.7%306 W · 234 L-1.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed Luque32c3,124$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009241.3%38 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Holland 69c3,110$2,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$964.023161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Luque31c3,000$930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9304742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Luque38c2,606$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Holland 62c2,419$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$919.353661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Holland 63c2,237$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$817.5621044.8%94 W · 116 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Holland 64c1,630$1,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.691729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-50.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Holland 61c1,484$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$583.8633253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6bcc…f8b2backed Luque37c1,351$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed Holland 63c1,240$784 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45611761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x76ed…fa48backed Luque32c1,170$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.2311140.5%45 W · 66 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Luque36c1,166$419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.3723537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Holland 64c1,095$701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.312540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Holland 67c1,030$690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$340.2414751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a27…fe44backed Luque38c1,000$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3801216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Holland 68c944$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.089336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Holland 63c707.44$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.177960.8%48 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked Luque33c700$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23125251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Luque22c650$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.1414929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Luque2c630$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1219418.6%36 W · 158 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x39b2…7b5ebacked Holland 64c609.99$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.61747.1%8 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b7…60a4backed Holland 63c600$377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22332545.2%147 W · 178 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Luque30c600$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.56547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c8…ecaebacked Luque38c578.95$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed Luque32c551.26$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.39120%0 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Luque39c550$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2146451.6%33 W · 31 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Luque37c550$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.513044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Holland 64c530$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.818560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Luque37c500$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1854042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Luque30c499.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15011844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Holland 62c486.29$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$186.293171%22 W · 9 L+6.2wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+47%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x2105…c514backed Luque34c455.18$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.765632.1%18 W · 38 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick24cpaid+7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Holland 66c450$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15248749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe893…f215backed Luque39c449.75$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.654156.1%23 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x288a…4275backed Luque32c400$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-76.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Holland 62c400$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15239959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Luque35c394.69$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.5211540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Luque22c328.19$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.4310443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Holland 67c324.96$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.7433948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xae30…d0a3backed Holland 62c322$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.361675%12 W · 4 L+3.1wins+0.19per pick56cpaid+37%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Holland 65c303$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.686035%21 W · 39 L-6.3wins-0.10per pick45cpaid-32.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Holland 65c290$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.256450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60ff…5ec3backed Luque39c285.9$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.510040%40 W · 60 L-4.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b28…95fcbacked Holland 71c281.07$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.071172.7%8 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Holland 68c259.55$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.5514355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Luque38c210$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.851533.6%173 W · 342 L-7.2wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-11.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Holland 68c196$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.288060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a01…6397backed Holland 77c182$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.476254.8%34 W · 28 L-5.3wins-0.09per pick63cpaid-18.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Holland 64c175$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick58cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad8c…f563backed Luque37c164.84$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.992133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa147…3fccbacked Luque31c159.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501968.4%13 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x589a…7c26backed Holland 64c156.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.25580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.37per pick43cpaid+88.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed Holland 65c153.85$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8511138.7%43 W · 68 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Luque37c150$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.58348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd79…f93ebacked Holland 64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.152252.9%276 W · 246 L+15.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Luque24c139.55$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0821031.9%67 W · 143 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-28.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Luque39c136.36$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.183158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Luque34c135.21$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6319230.7%59 W · 133 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1467…f95ebacked Luque37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505347.2%25 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Luque18c129.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.2714129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Luque33c127.96$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.722342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Holland 64c125.05$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.059950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d13…082cbacked Holland 65c115.38$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.381060%6 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3916…53c7backed Luque38c110.53$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$425038%19 W · 31 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-18%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Luque24c110$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2626552.1%138 W · 127 L+23.9wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+17.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x211a…9613backed Luque39c102.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408939.3%35 W · 54 L-6.8wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-12.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc599…2cecbacked Holland 66c100$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.1410439.4%41 W · 63 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Holland 61c100$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3922853.1%121 W · 107 L-7.5wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50e8…26b0backed Luque32c100$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Holland 64c99.99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3613160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Holland 65c98$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.313953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Luque32c95.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.488036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7879…256fbacked Luque37c93.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-63.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e0…1e88backed Luque37c88.97$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.261861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.4wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+34.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2366…1078backed Luque36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301526.7%4 W · 11 L-3.1wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-54.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x21af…673fbacked Luque36c83.33$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301668.8%11 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick57cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x72fe…e2cebacked Holland 65c83$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.059062.2%56 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.