UFC · resolved market
Mederos vs. Choinski
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee89c4b46a0ed5ac17762e07fa49c06937128f24be13ca8173f5667d9688ce68
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mederosof Mederos, Choinski
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,210
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,210 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x01ba…b77abacked Mederos | 59c | 4,000$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,639.99 | 222 | 59.5%132 W · 90 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8806…6a9bbacked Mederos | 57c | 3,838$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,650.19 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xafba…e61bbacked Choinski | 41c | 3,000$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.99 | 352 | 53.1%187 W · 165 L | +27.7wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdecc…9d36backed Choinski | 43c | 2,327$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 169 | 51.5%87 W · 82 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…2d92backed Choinski | 43c | 2,326$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Choinski | 42c | 500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Mederos | 61c | 500$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195 | 355 | 39.4%140 W · 215 L | -19.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…e2d8backed Choinski | 41c | 487.8$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 356 | 64.6%230 W · 126 L | +9.3wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Choinski | 42c | 434.11$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.64 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Mederos | 58c | 409.23$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.88 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa53a…e4f1backed Choinski | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 121 | 59.5%72 W · 49 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…06e8backed Choinski | 40c | 240$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Mederos | 61c | 150$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd14c…17bebacked Mederos | 58c | 150$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 131 | 60.3%79 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd59…c3a5backed Mederos | 60c | 141.67$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Mederos | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 248 | 62.5%155 W · 93 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Choinski | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 45 | 33.3%15 W · 30 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Choinski | 46c | 95$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.7 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x975b…2d5fbacked Mederos | 64c | 87.66$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.56 | 141 | 29.8%42 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7a…13abbacked Mederos | 61c | 82.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf04…ad65backed Mederos | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.15per pick | 60cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c8…e7acbacked Mederos | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce77…35d5backed Mederos | 60c | 80.57$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5532…c6dbbacked Mederos | 59c | 69.49$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 60 | 31.7%19 W · 41 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0b8…0646backed Choinski | 41c | 56.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Mederos | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc6f…d419backed Choinski | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd79…f93ebacked Mederos | 60c | 48.33$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.33 | 522 | 52.9%276 W · 246 L | +15.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb724…fff6backed Choinski | 49c | 46.35$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.71 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e7…3c1abacked Choinski | 41c | 42.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 185 | 60%111 W · 74 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Mederos | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 99 | 50.5%50 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6350…e367backed Mederos | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c0…f99fbacked Choinski | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49be…64e2backed Mederos | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6332…35d6backed Choinski | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a7…9a17backed Mederos | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a5b…353ebacked Choinski | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Mederos | 59c | 24.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Mederos vs. Choinskithis page
- Bautista vs. MixBautista won
- Dvalishvili vs. O'MalleyDvalishvili won
- Gastelum vs. PyferPyfer won
- Luque vs. HollandHolland won
- Murzakanov vs. RibeiroMurzakanov won
- Pena vs. HarrisonHarrison won
- Salkilld vs. AshmouzSalkilld won
- Saragih vs. Sang YooSang Yoo won
- Silva vs. VanVan won
- Spivac vs. Cortes-AcostaCortes-Acosta won
- Williams vs. GustafssonGustafsson won
- da Silva vs. CongCong won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.