TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dvalishviliof Dvalishvili, O'Malley
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,698,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,552,513

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,698,390 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 624 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0834…2a7ebacked Dvalishvili72c696,685$498,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198,415.68333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8679…4659backed O'Malley28c227,489$63,697 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,696.98425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-65.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc58d…9373backed O'Malley29c194,986$55,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,676.262548%12 W · 13 L+2.5wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed O'Malley30c130,210$39,157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39,157.22343.5%10 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid-3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked O'Malley29c120,122$34,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,734.6535253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed O'Malley29c115,000$33,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,639.2113039.2%51 W · 79 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-8.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Dvalishvili70c47,042$32,705 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,336.1814857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7504…9c69backed O'Malley29c44,491$12,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,686.7340%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2811…d442backed O'Malley32c38,648$12,485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,485616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4f5b…d411backed Dvalishvili72c38,631$27,814 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,816.571855.6%10 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick68cpaid-18.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked O'Malley28c37,156$10,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,265.814067.5%27 W · 13 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick57cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x7e18…f52abacked Dvalishvili72c35,461$25,432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,028.63366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick74cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed O'Malley32c31,434$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,0007653.9%41 W · 35 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+15.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x86e7…613ebacked O'Malley29c30,000$8,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,679.9613453%71 W · 63 L+7.0wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x01ba…b77abacked Dvalishvili71c28,405$20,167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,237.3222259.5%132 W · 90 L+15.1wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+12.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6bed…f347backed O'Malley29c27,859$8,123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,123.2320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7dde…c5fcbacked O'Malley28c27,724$7,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,762.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe32e…890bbacked O'Malley28c27,313$7,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,647.642437.5%9 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked O'Malley30c25,062$7,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,5002245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7b8c…abbabacked O'Malley28c24,384$6,853 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,853.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.09per pick48cpaid-4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c4…a48bbacked O'Malley29c21,142$6,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,130540%2 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked O'Malley28c21,000$5,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,88037152.8%196 W · 175 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed O'Malley27c15,130$4,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,131.826051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xace4…bd19backed Dvalishvili71c14,200$10,082 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1183959%23 W · 16 L+0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d9a…4e25backed O'Malley30c13,859$4,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,131.591533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick41cpaid+3.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Dvalishvili71c13,590$9,688 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,902.045040%20 W · 30 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid+7.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7455…93adbacked O'Malley24c11,979$2,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,934.3719531.8%62 W · 133 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed O'Malley28c11,390$3,220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,220.23850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed O'Malley25c10,756$2,649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,648.6714929.5%44 W · 105 L-15.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-39.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed O'Malley29c9,750$2,828 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,827.51233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbffc…1f45backed Dvalishvili70c9,448$6,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,791.998348.2%40 W · 43 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+12.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed O'Malley28c9,423$2,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,638.474946.9%23 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f7d…cd1cbacked Dvalishvili71c8,070$5,748 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,322.484742.6%20 W · 27 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce37…b17bbacked O'Malley30c8,000$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4001338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick55cpaid-44.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcdc4…da65backed Dvalishvili71c7,028$4,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,038.06714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.21per pick36cpaid-79.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed O'Malley29c6,819$2,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,006.9835826%93 W · 265 L-7.5wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-14.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x481a…d1e6backed O'Malley29c6,699$1,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,952.46616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Dvalishvili69c6,687$4,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,106.223259.4%19 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b32…5950backed O'Malley28c6,631$1,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,873.68140.7%33 W · 48 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3d…351dbacked Dvalishvili70c6,383$4,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,897.0812055.8%67 W · 53 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed O'Malley23c6,032$1,414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,4142540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bbb…3607backed Dvalishvili67c6,000$4,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,999.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed O'Malley30c5,994$1,773 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,773.141723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x16d5…5e0cbacked Dvalishvili71c5,961$4,235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,725.41650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd34b…0004backed O'Malley26c5,928$1,561 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,561.2211761.5%72 W · 45 L+7.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked O'Malley25c5,579$1,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,371.2511540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ef0…f7e0backed O'Malley28c5,231$1,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,490.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aca…8b98backed O'Malley30c5,000$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-14.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0269…128ebacked Dvalishvili71c4,957$3,510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,446.48475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick60cpaid+20.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15e0…8d86backed Dvalishvili69c4,947$3,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,513.5366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0950…6674backed Dvalishvili71c4,511$3,216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,294.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc701…f932backed Dvalishvili69c4,451$3,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,375.44785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.22per pick64cpaid+32.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe653…c4a7backed Dvalishvili69c4,346$3,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,328.041428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-44.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa7c0…8746backed O'Malley30c4,167$1,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,250250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Dvalishvili71c4,000$2,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1603250%16 W · 16 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed O'Malley28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.9923537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x25f2…7a75backed O'Malley33c3,976$1,296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,295.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2873…ad0abacked Dvalishvili70c3,838$2,687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,151.41241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa02f…e4b1backed O'Malley28c3,525$981 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.891330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick41cpaid-54.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed O'Malley29c3,414$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00016951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed O'Malley17c3,334$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.7621554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe403…afc7backed O'Malley30c3,300$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e8d…2965backed O'Malley31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x31b6…2d92backed O'Malley31c3,226$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009241.3%38 W · 54 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d0…6357backed O'Malley30c3,119$935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$934.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9968…a104backed Dvalishvili66c3,050$2,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,026.061250%6 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Dvalishvili70c3,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$900966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+53.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf22e…f52cbacked O'Malley30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9001457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+69.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed O'Malley30c3,000$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9006050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9304…f693backed O'Malley31c2,707$834 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$834.29120%0 W · 12 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8a27…fe44backed O'Malley29c2,614$758 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$758.21216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked O'Malley30c2,529$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75017158.5%100 W · 71 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Dvalishvili71c2,500$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72539959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0979…8d9bbacked O'Malley30c2,472$742 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741.661643.8%7 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-4.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Dvalishvili69c2,450$1,696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.0936745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf76e…9629backed O'Malley29c2,445$709 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$709.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Dvalishvili71c2,304$1,626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.414751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed O'Malley7c2,280$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.881012%2 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Dvalishvili74c2,175$1,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$574.636845.6%31 W · 37 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x476a…76bdbacked O'Malley30c2,016$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006262.9%39 W · 23 L+8.7wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+24.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed O'Malley29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58018145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed O'Malley28c2,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+15.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x477a…2d8ebacked O'Malley30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-42.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Dvalishvili68c2,000$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6401770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.9wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+62.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Dvalishvili70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.9922661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaee8…6eebbacked Dvalishvili70c1,902$1,334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$567.733938.5%15 W · 24 L-0.1wins0.00per pick39cpaid-10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe895…c3dabacked O'Malley29c1,890$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.092958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b3d…7422backed Dvalishvili72c1,790$1,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.151136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick58cpaid-38.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Dvalishvili71c1,699$1,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$492.921070%7 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick56cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xed4f…e25abacked O'Malley3c1,663$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.920%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x659c…8dfcbacked Dvalishvili70c1,658$1,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.142774.1%20 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick68cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04a7…c0dfbacked O'Malley30c1,649$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.843748.6%18 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Dvalishvili77c1,605$1,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.1410443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked O'Malley28c1,529$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.39336.6%34 W · 59 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-22.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0688…d67dbacked Dvalishvili72c1,528$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.915265.4%34 W · 18 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd353…f6acbacked O'Malley29c1,500$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43525251.2%129 W · 123 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefa8…c82bbacked O'Malley21c1,500$315 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3d…8db7backed O'Malley22c1,480$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.11100%0 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd1b0…6eaebacked Dvalishvili71c1,370$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.383458.8%20 W · 14 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Dvalishvili75c1,332$999 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3336943.5%30 W · 39 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.