TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

UFC · resolved market

Spivac vs. Cortes-Acosta

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Cortes-Acostaof Spivac, Cortes-Acosta
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$190,133
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$219,847

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $190,133 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in UFC
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x647d…5ce1backed Spivac53c31,405$16,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,644.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa444…ef4dbacked Cortes-Acosta47c31,405$14,760 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,644.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Cortes-Acosta39c17,678$6,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,795.5935253.1%187 W · 165 L+27.7wins+0.08per pick45cpaid+14.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8806…6a9bbacked Cortes-Acosta38c16,257$6,114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,142.731060%6 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Spivac61c15,759$9,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,612.9814857.4%85 W · 63 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+8.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0834…2a7ebacked Spivac62c15,740$9,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,823333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce77…35d5backed Cortes-Acosta47c14,277$6,673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,604.376051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Cortes-Acosta39c12,199$4,764 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,434.82245.5%10 W · 12 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Spivac57c6,243$3,585 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,585.023161.3%19 W · 12 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Spivac61c2,939$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,798.94850%4 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37bb…06e8backed Cortes-Acosta39c2,500$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,5251723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.7wins-0.16per pick39cpaid-56.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Spivac59c2,452$1,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,437.0818453.8%99 W · 85 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdecc…9d36backed Cortes-Acosta41c2,418$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,418.3316951.5%87 W · 82 L-0.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Cortes-Acosta39c2,333$904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,429.276050%30 W · 30 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Spivac55c1,230$678 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$678.0310443.3%45 W · 59 L-5.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-21%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Spivac60c1,193$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$715.818560%111 W · 74 L+0.9wins0.00per pick60cpaid+4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ec83backed Cortes-Acosta52c1,160$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561.5822342.2%94 W · 129 L-9.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ada…2f28backed Spivac75c1,060$798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.4618145.3%82 W · 99 L+6.9wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4cd4…ce48backed Spivac63c1,044$658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6581729.4%5 W · 12 L-3.8wins-0.22per pick52cpaid-50.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Spivac61c1,010$616 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$616.124356.8%138 W · 105 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdd8…2ee5backed Spivac50c1,000$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.210447.1%49 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Spivac62c1,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62035539.4%140 W · 215 L-19.1wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-15.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Spivac5c1,000$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50619.8%6 W · 55 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad25…7678backed Cortes-Acosta41c999.95$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.9711844.1%52 W · 66 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa53a…e4f1backed Spivac60c972.46$579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$579.0312159.5%72 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef75…5d78backed Cortes-Acosta42c840.83$352 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.88650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4889…e2d8backed Spivac62c796.94$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49435564.5%229 W · 126 L+9.0wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcd59…c3a5backed Cortes-Acosta40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4502540%10 W · 15 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x325f…d8acbacked Cortes-Acosta35c592.26$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$382.4211540%46 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Spivac61c570$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.913041.5%54 W · 76 L-9.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Spivac62c540.1$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.2239959.6%238 W · 161 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Cortes-Acosta39c500$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3054042.5%17 W · 23 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-20.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Cortes-Acosta38c500$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31022144.3%98 W · 123 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a27…fe44backed Cortes-Acosta40c500$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3001216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-57.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x20dd…f6acbacked Spivac62c461.92$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28531855%175 W · 143 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54b5…4b31backed Spivac50c460.38$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.5336745.8%168 W · 199 L-1.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0c8…090cbacked Spivac61c421.15$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.91346.2%6 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.10per pick56cpaid-8.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x36ed…4a93backed Spivac54c410$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.45052%26 W · 24 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb34…59eabacked Spivac62c400$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24813044.6%58 W · 72 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked Cortes-Acosta45c371.22$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.0414129.8%42 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-27%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65d4…4e71backed Spivac72c370.26$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.611464.3%9 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc31a…174ebacked Cortes-Acosta39c366.87$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.29744.3%43 W · 54 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x481a…d1e6backed Cortes-Acosta39c340.29$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.58616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d5…ac1ebacked Cortes-Acosta40c312.5$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.5944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c86…6993backed Cortes-Acosta40c269.48$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.223537%87 W · 148 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed10…d2e5backed Spivac60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15022661.9%140 W · 86 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Spivac59c231.71$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.7133253.3%177 W · 155 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0434…a98cbacked Cortes-Acosta40c230$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13826352.1%137 W · 126 L+23.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+14.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbbaa…cbeabacked Cortes-Acosta44c227.27$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.272661.5%16 W · 10 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb14…5358backed Cortes-Acosta44c224.98$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9933948.1%163 W · 176 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1102…af36backed Spivac55c219.99$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9948749.1%239 W · 248 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d9…76dbbacked Spivac60c216.67$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13018644.1%82 W · 104 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Spivac54c200.35$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.9414751%75 W · 72 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4574…ab3ebacked Spivac56c200$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11328743.9%126 W · 161 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f69…7df1backed Spivac57c200$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11421554.4%117 W · 98 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2f1…bd6abacked Cortes-Acosta39c194.56$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.683158.1%18 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab3b…a825backed Cortes-Acosta39c164.1$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.122653.1%120 W · 106 L-7.4wins-0.03per pick56cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe0b8…0646backed Spivac61c163.93$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004153.7%22 W · 19 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb220…b07cbacked Cortes-Acosta47c160$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.81735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b1e…e465backed Spivac28c153.85$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.636731.3%21 W · 46 L-9.8wins-0.15per pick46cpaid-37.7%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Spivac62c150$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9324862.5%155 W · 93 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Cortes-Acosta39c150$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.58036.3%29 W · 51 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0dc…84e0backed Cortes-Acosta68c150$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$486547.7%31 W · 34 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-11.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd14c…17bebacked Cortes-Acosta41c150$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8913160.3%79 W · 52 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x312d…6814backed Cortes-Acosta37c144.28$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.4915839.2%62 W · 96 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xebc3…2626backed Cortes-Acosta42c120$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.68256.1%46 W · 36 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e9…ee46backed Cortes-Acosta42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.0510650.9%54 W · 52 L+0.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb724…fff6backed Cortes-Acosta42c119.05$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.051136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Spivac57c112$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8413953.2%74 W · 65 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Spivac54c110.89$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.6656450.5%285 W · 279 L+6.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e17…e4d4backed Spivac61c105.39$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.297960.8%48 W · 31 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9aba…b09dbacked Spivac22c104.55$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2330%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x74e2…cc43backed Cortes-Acosta30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.9wins-0.22per pick45cpaid-47.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4e0a…e4e6backed Spivac53c89.42$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.814355.9%80 W · 63 L+7.8wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0af8…9454backed Spivac63c87.33$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$559950.5%50 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71e1…c440backed Spivac60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503237.5%12 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-23.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf04…ad65backed Spivac60c83.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50944.4%4 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick60cpaid-34.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5825…4ffbbacked Cortes-Acosta25c80.27$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.111942.9%51 W · 68 L-5.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-9.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbb32…b21ebacked Cortes-Acosta25c79.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.536354%34 W · 29 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1c72…5c26backed Spivac57c75.18$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.8810452.9%55 W · 49 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x934f…5bd8backed Cortes-Acosta22c71.67$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7910148.5%49 W · 52 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+20%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d6…4fd2backed Cortes-Acosta40c71.4$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.845648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-13.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x128d…e2e7backed Cortes-Acosta43c70.15$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.152339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3e5e…180cbacked Cortes-Acosta47c70$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7703…34b9backed Cortes-Acosta38c69$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.784100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+107.1%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb97…add3backed Spivac63c62.84$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.591030%3 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.25per pick55cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6dd6…f5f4backed Cortes-Acosta74c61.04$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8753956.6%305 W · 234 L-2.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20e…5998backed Cortes-Acosta41c60$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.51154.5%6 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ad1…8c20backed Spivac53c60$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.87856.4%44 W · 34 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc80…2fdbbacked Spivac55c58.65$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.24047.5%19 W · 21 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-8.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Spivac61c57.38$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$354763.8%30 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52f7…77dfbacked Spivac61c51.15$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61f8…793ebacked Cortes-Acosta44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f4…eb0bbacked Spivac56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f51…48f6backed Cortes-Acosta48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3251…7ca1backed Spivac61c50$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x40df…eceebacked Cortes-Acosta48c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x48ae…9d34backed Spivac56c50$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6168…fb7ebacked Cortes-Acosta44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x575b…978cbacked Cortes-Acosta47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.