TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Will Dalton Knecht win NBA Rookie of the Year?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,173,850
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,438,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,173,850 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c17,984$44 inLost-$44.191550%0 W · 155 L-0.3wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes0c15,786$64 inLost-$63.98190%0 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c9,205$33 inLost-$32.522130.5%1 W · 212 L+0.2wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed Yes3c5,280$155 inLost-$155.4430443.1%131 W · 173 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xced6…8229backed Yes1c2,097$13 inLost-$12.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x967d…0c58backed Yes1c2,097$14 inLost-$13.6310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c4a…ef17backed Yes1c2,097$14 inLost-$13.6320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x819c…0619backed Yes1c2,097$13 inLost-$12.5820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6337…1ebbbacked Yes1c1,964$21 inLost-$20.641118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-70.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53ec…df91backed Yes12c1,791$221 inLost-$220.5522750.2%114 W · 113 L+24.8wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+6.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xda47…f40abacked Yes6c1,654$99 inLost-$98.892462.5%15 W · 9 L+3.7wins+0.16per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes4c1,345$60 inLost-$60.06385.3%2 W · 36 L-2.2wins-0.06per pick11cpaid-88.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x768f…d08cbacked Yes18c1,000$180 inLost-$18090%0 W · 9 L-1.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1197…40bfbacked Yes6c870.58$50 inLost-$501625%4 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-52.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc80…2fdbbacked Yes5c639.44$33 inLost-$33.346634.8%23 W · 43 L-5.9wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c03…0cc1backed Yes5c549.55$29 inLost-$28.661,60211.8%189 W · 1,413 L-4.8wins0.00per pick12cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed Yes5c499$24 inLost-$24.1318246.7%85 W · 97 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes7c286.75$20 inLost-$19.65586.9%4 W · 54 L-0.2wins0.00per pick7cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes5c273.31$14 inLost-$13.6734246.8%160 W · 182 L+18.1wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x507d…728dbacked Yes21c170$36 inLost-$35.7425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-63.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes18c131.72$24 inLost-$23.5918536.8%68 W · 117 L-11.1wins-0.06per pick43cpaid-29.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ab6…2101backed Yes18c113.89$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f41…83f5backed No80c100$80 inWon+$2024549%120 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd76d…c5c6backed Yes20c100$20 inLost-$205754.4%31 W · 26 L+5.9wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd085…ba5cbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost-$10.53630.6%11 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2734…27d4backed No80c38$30 inWon+$7.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+71.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.