TailMyPicks

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College Football · resolved market

New Mexico vs. San Jose State

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
San Jose Stateof New Mexico, San Jose State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$225,035
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$209,428

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,035 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 84 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5375…aeeabacked New Mexico33c61,668$20,051 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,050.7868440.8%279 W · 405 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-17.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed New Mexico45c26,505$11,927 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,927.1932745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked New Mexico16c22,817$3,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,68520039.5%79 W · 121 L-3.6wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-15.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked San Jose State69c12,603$8,738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,865.1740541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked San Jose State53c11,073$5,848 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,225.2540549.4%200 W · 205 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed New Mexico46c10,000$4,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,649.993154.8%17 W · 14 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed San Jose State54c9,759$5,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,489.2517048.2%82 W · 88 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed San Jose State54c9,000$4,860 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,1401747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+11.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed San Jose State77c7,261$5,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.3585947.7%410 W · 449 L+14.9wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x96e1…50aabacked San Jose State73c6,171$4,487 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.164055%22 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.10per pick45cpaid+7.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked San Jose State55c6,113$3,362 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,750.9281847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed San Jose State59c5,655$3,351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,303.955565.5%36 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed San Jose State51c5,480$2,795 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,685.2215451.9%80 W · 74 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56fc…733ebacked New Mexico49c5,480$2,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,685.223036.7%11 W · 19 L-6.7wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-40.9%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed San Jose State53c5,283$2,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,483.0211541.7%48 W · 67 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed San Jose State67c5,215$3,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.1686243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed San Jose State55c5,000$2,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,25015352.3%80 W · 73 L+3.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed New Mexico46c5,000$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,30011553%61 W · 54 L+5.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed New Mexico47c4,956$2,329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,329.325639.3%22 W · 34 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed San Jose State55c3,778$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,700.3438450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked New Mexico47c3,500$1,645 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,64538142.5%162 W · 219 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed San Jose State71c3,277$2,341 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$935.9455350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4762…ba70backed San Jose State54c2,750$1,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2652458.3%14 W · 10 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaf9f…f6a3backed New Mexico48c2,730$1,310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,310.465451.9%28 W · 26 L+0.2wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7430…3af2backed New Mexico47c1,056$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.324045%18 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked New Mexico3c968$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.31360%0 W · 136 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3c51…af7ebacked San Jose State55c899.99$495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40511844.1%52 W · 66 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked San Jose State53c817$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.9920450.5%103 W · 101 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5482…b6eebacked New Mexico4c798.65$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.67814.9%4 W · 77 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick4cpaid-40.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed New Mexico46c797.83$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3675334%18 W · 35 L-6.1wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-26.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Jose State68c767$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.3340244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4192…7f00backed San Jose State55c636.11$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$286.25560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed San Jose State55c596.47$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.4121348.8%104 W · 109 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x68ce…d06dbacked New Mexico41c584.86$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked San Jose State55c579$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.5517361.3%106 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked New Mexico26c571.8$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1505641.1%23 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44a0…c3b9backed San Jose State52c499.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24011735.9%42 W · 75 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed New Mexico24c416.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008627.9%24 W · 62 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed New Mexico50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20011142.3%47 W · 64 L-10.4wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1fbc…3099backed San Jose State56c357.14$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.1416839.9%67 W · 101 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked San Jose State54c319$172 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.7450358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked New Mexico9c310$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0457144.7%255 W · 316 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b0b…f9d6backed New Mexico44c299.99$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1326451.6%33 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked New Mexico24c279.17$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674928.6%14 W · 35 L-5.7wins-0.12per pick40cpaid-44.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x355c…e6d4backed San Jose State57c265.21$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.2110347.6%49 W · 54 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed San Jose State54c240.74$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7430253%160 W · 142 L+10.7wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd73b…70adbacked San Jose State56c239.29$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.292763%17 W · 10 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdff0…73fdbacked New Mexico48c208.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003447.1%16 W · 18 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-13.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed San Jose State80c200$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.22748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.10per pick58cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked New Mexico45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9042244.5%188 W · 234 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…5d9ebacked New Mexico31c195.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+4.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe478…28eabacked San Jose State53c188.68$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.681464.3%9 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked San Jose State53c188.47$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.3813450.7%68 W · 66 L+5.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfdb…ec0dbacked San Jose State76c187$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.888942.7%38 W · 51 L-5.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2619…9f4ebacked New Mexico43c179.82$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3217954.2%97 W · 82 L+11.0wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+8.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc80…2fdbbacked New Mexico43c172.66$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$753839.5%15 W · 23 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-8.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a03…47c1backed New Mexico46c163.04$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754143.9%18 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked San Jose State54c163.04$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7549443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked New Mexico45c131.22$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.054751.1%24 W · 23 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa1…e6fdbacked San Jose State53c125.47$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.973351.5%17 W · 16 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick42cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed San Jose State52c122.93$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599843.9%43 W · 55 L+2.7wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf16…a240backed New Mexico45c107.52$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.227440.5%30 W · 44 L-5.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x29c1…012cbacked New Mexico48c104.17$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507352.1%38 W · 35 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed San Jose State53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4747331.5%149 W · 324 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked New Mexico44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4418338.8%71 W · 112 L-12.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked San Jose State55c100$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4524157.3%138 W · 103 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…06c9backed New Mexico44c100$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$444641.3%19 W · 27 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2272…2e9cbacked San Jose State54c79.16$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.418041.3%33 W · 47 L+6.6wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+19.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b4b…94d4backed San Jose State55c64$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.82142.9%9 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.12per pick55cpaid-19.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe2c…4ae8backed San Jose State57c61.4$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.44557.8%26 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7412…0ccbbacked New Mexico25c57$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.49944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+10.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eff…8490backed San Jose State55c54$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.31050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc4b…5a92backed New Mexico48c52.08$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2518858%109 W · 79 L+5.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked New Mexico48c50$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2414945.6%68 W · 81 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf135…eb06backed New Mexico26c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-31%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c82…0d7dbacked New Mexico45c48.89$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221225%3 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1dd4…dfaebacked New Mexico29c48.46$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141656.3%9 W · 7 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6894…59d8backed New Mexico45c44.95$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.234850%24 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36bf…2864backed San Jose State40c40$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$247534.7%26 W · 49 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a1…f335backed San Jose State55c36.36$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.363100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+44.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce6d…28b5backed New Mexico45c34.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4510944%48 W · 61 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0448…5a75backed San Jose State57c26.32$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.324656.5%26 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2a0…ca0cbacked San Jose State54c24.39$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.222568%17 W · 8 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick56cpaid+18.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb579…f458backed San Jose State53c22.64$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.6412641.3%52 W · 74 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.