College Football · resolved market
Michigan State vs. USC
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2e7cab4e3111d25914456053a685fa3ad942f0a23de3c2cf5ea90f4ca48e896
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- USCof Michigan State, USC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $235,491
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $230,129
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $235,491 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Michigan State | 19c | 53,465$9,982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,981.53 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfcc…441bbacked Michigan State | 17c | 29,529$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88a1…ad45backed Michigan State | 13c | 29,221$3,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,798.73 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Michigan State | 13c | 20,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Michigan State | 7c | 13,142$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.66 | 131 | 49.6%65 W · 66 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed USC | 76c | 12,048$9,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,866.19 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Michigan State | 12c | 8,334$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.07 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Michigan State | 19c | 5,360$1,012 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.39 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed Michigan State | 12c | 5,000$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.05 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Michigan State | 8c | 4,140$345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$344.7 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Michigan State | 1c | 3,064$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…374abacked Michigan State | 13c | 2,831$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0212…5584backed Michigan State | 13c | 2,054$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a8b…b1c8backed Michigan State | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked USC | 71c | 1,948$1,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$569.85 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Michigan State | 1c | 1,470$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 81 | 4.9%4 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad0b…8030backed Michigan State | 7c | 1,165$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Michigan State | 12c | 1,071$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed Michigan State | 7c | 966.4$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.53 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Michigan State | 16c | 739.45$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.08 | 110 | 22.7%25 W · 85 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f65…d7aebacked Michigan State | 28c | 710.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Michigan State | 13c | 688$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan State | 12c | 419.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…e0ebbacked Michigan State | 23c | 313.41$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239a…76e5backed Michigan State | 8c | 312.5$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Michigan State | 16c | 308.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Michigan State | 14c | 292.86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Michigan State | 13c | 277$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 292 | 49%143 W · 149 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Michigan State | 14c | 250$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…b867backed Michigan State | 12c | 183.33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -77.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcfd…c364backed Michigan State | 11c | 183.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x980d…985fbacked Michigan State | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Michigan State | 11c | 127.06$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.98 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Michigan State | 10c | 117.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed USC | 71c | 110$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.9 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cc…a23abacked Michigan State | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed Michigan State | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Michigan State | 14c | 99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.53 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 24cpaid | -77.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Michigan State | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 305 | 48.9%149 W · 156 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Michigan State vs. USCthis page
- Michigan State vs. USC: O/U 55.5Over won
- Spread: USC (-18.5)Michigan State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.