College Football · resolved market
Spread: USC (-18.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c691b8cfa9106beebef9759c4c3f555b2d87bf97f103df5cbc11247ba2dab9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Stateof USC, Michigan State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,958
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,958 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed USC | 50c | 4,126$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Michigan State | 49c | 2,174$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,111.23 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Michigan State | 51c | 2,041$1,041 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.11 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd40…73a2backed Michigan State | 49c | 2,022$998 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,023.34 | 112 | 21.4%24 W · 88 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Michigan State | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 167 | 47.9%80 W · 87 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed USC | 51c | 1,933$986 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$986 | 115 | 41.7%48 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed USC | 51c | 1,250$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.5 | 68 | 35.3%24 W · 44 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked USC | 50c | 902.02$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$451.18 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed USC | 49c | 660.05$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Michigan State | 50c | 577$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.5 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed USC | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed USC | 52c | 450$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 111 | 42.3%47 W · 64 L | -10.4wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Michigan State | 50c | 254$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed USC | 50c | 207.57$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.58 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Michigan State | 49c | 204.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.55 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x251b…143cbacked Michigan State | 50c | 108$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a6…6fa0backed Michigan State | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: USC (-18.5)this page
- Michigan State vs. USCUSC won
- Michigan State vs. USC: O/U 55.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.