College Football · resolved market
Fresno State vs. Hawai'i
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x74526b967dffc08c39297cd6d383633887757192c6fc85fac7bef3b2fd075157
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fresno Stateof Fresno State, Hawai'i
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,084
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $193,714
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,084 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Fresno State | 58c | 82,480$47,483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34,997.14 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Hawai'i | 42c | 18,569$7,799 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,798.99 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Hawai'i | 43c | 13,804$5,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,962.69 | 309 | 49.5%153 W · 156 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Hawai'i | 41c | 12,572$5,206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,205.92 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Hawai'i | 53c | 11,872$6,260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,260 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Hawai'i | 45c | 10,633$4,785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,785.05 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Hawai'i | 44c | 8,584$3,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,742.71 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb1e…88d5backed Fresno State | 59c | 8,475$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.58 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Hawai'i | 43c | 5,000$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,150 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Fresno State | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,249.99 | 115 | 53%61 W · 54 L | +5.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Fresno State | 48c | 4,054$1,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,091.42 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Fresno State | 42c | 3,232$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,882.96 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fce…28f8backed Fresno State | 55c | 2,660$1,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,197 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Hawai'i | 43c | 2,547$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.43 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Hawai'i | 4c | 2,512$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.51 | 81 | 4.9%4 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbb…374abacked Hawai'i | 39c | 2,492$964 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$964.18 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +31%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked Hawai'i | 42c | 2,000$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Hawai'i | 40c | 1,915$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.09 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Fresno State | 51c | 1,737$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.73 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20dd…f6acbacked Hawai'i | 35c | 1,440$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Hawai'i | 46c | 1,286$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.26 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa408…e305backed Hawai'i | 31c | 1,273$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$395.9 | 65 | 43.1%28 W · 37 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Hawai'i | 6c | 1,141$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.68 | 136 | 0%0 W · 136 L | -8.6wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…d82cbacked Fresno State | 64c | 1,134$729 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.75 | 48 | 68.8%33 W · 15 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Hawai'i | 46c | 1,077$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xace2…8fe6backed Fresno State | 72c | 1,003$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa805…83dcbacked Hawai'i | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 102 | 20.6%21 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b3b5backed Fresno State | 52c | 980$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Hawai'i | 22c | 948$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.22 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x773c…cf18backed Hawai'i | 44c | 608.47$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Hawai'i | 41c | 565.36$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.8 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c51…af7ebacked Fresno State | 56c | 550$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.4 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Fresno State | 56c | 536.05$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.05 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Hawai'i | 44c | 440$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.6 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Hawai'i | 43c | 354.37$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.38 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb99…5d0fbacked Hawai'i | 49c | 345$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.7 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1037…413fbacked Hawai'i | 45c | 325.96$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.97 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Fresno State | 58c | 311.69$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.15 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Hawai'i | 51c | 300$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe94b…2170backed Hawai'i | 18c | 234.88$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed Fresno State | 53c | 225.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.21 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d4…1165backed Hawai'i | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.36per pick | 44cpaid | +91.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6777…2612backed Hawai'i | 45c | 220$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Fresno State | 52c | 205.26$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.32 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c82…e0cbbacked Fresno State | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Hawai'i | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Hawai'i | 47c | 194.45$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.68 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56c3…cc1ebacked Fresno State | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Fresno State | 57c | 175.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 63cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x355c…e6d4backed Fresno State | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 103 | 47.6%49 W · 54 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ee…373ebacked Fresno State | 45c | 152.68$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.68 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85b…ed94backed Fresno State | 60c | 130$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +4.6wins | +0.26per pick | 41cpaid | +35%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Fresno State | 60c | 124.72$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Hawai'i | 29c | 110$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 149 | 45.6%68 W · 81 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…eb08backed Fresno State | 64c | 101.5$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Hawai'i | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1a5backed Hawai'i | 65c | 88.86$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.76 | 124 | 50.8%63 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Hawai'i | 44c | 86.78$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.61 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Fresno State | 52c | 83.98$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.31 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc7…395dbacked Hawai'i | 16c | 80.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Hawai'i | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Hawai'i | 42c | 73$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa969…3501backed Hawai'i | 69c | 57.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -37%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Hawai'i | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Hawai'i | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6466…4633backed Fresno State | 51c | 43.1$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x484f…28cbbacked Hawai'i | 49c | 43.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33b9…ed3abacked Hawai'i | 48c | 42.66$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.55 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2c…4ae8backed Hawai'i | 47c | 42.03$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 45 | 57.8%26 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Fresno State | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0b28…15d7backed Fresno State | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +58.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…cb8cbacked Hawai'i | 51c | 37.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x350e…6539backed Hawai'i | 55c | 36.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Fresno State | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 17 | 88.2%15 W · 2 L | +3.7wins | +0.22per pick | 66cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Hawai'i | 68c | 32$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4140…195fbacked Hawai'i | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Fresno State | 66c | 29.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 61 | 70.5%43 W · 18 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Fresno State | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Fresno State | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Fresno State vs. Hawai'ithis page
- Fresno State vs. Hawai'i: O/U 46.5Under won
- Spread: Fresno State (-3.5)Hawai'i won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.