TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Jets vs. Dolphins

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Dolphinsof Jets, Dolphins
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,800,466
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,919,073

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,800,466 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 813 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jets34c271,102$92,776 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92,776.0641851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Jets36c219,755$80,134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80,134.2447738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Jets1c219,341$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.149944.4%44 W · 55 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaefe…1e4abacked Dolphins60c217,049$130,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87,046.721957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cda…6e17backed Dolphins59c206,651$121,962 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84,689.4412352.8%65 W · 58 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+6.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Dolphins65c161,358$104,406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,951.3710061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2131…aaf2backed Dolphins58c149,999$87,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62,999.781936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick49cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Dolphins72c134,430$96,306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,124.0810566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xdbad…9c95backed Jets41c125,000$51,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51,2505550.9%28 W · 27 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Jets42c110,000$46,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46,199.8831240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Dolphins59c94,291$55,752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,539.264143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Dolphins59c88,332$52,116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,216.253259.4%19 W · 13 L+5.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+45.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Jets41c67,341$27,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,336.3630743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Dolphins76c66,635$50,638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,997.034250%21 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Jets40c60,820$24,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,140.8861148.6%297 W · 314 L+10.7wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Jets41c53,872$21,926 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,926.1716836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Jets38c50,306$19,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,194.7622548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9158…fa7bbacked Jets26c50,000$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,00011445.6%52 W · 62 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Jets32c46,231$14,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,764.2530043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Jets23c41,160$9,491 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,491.1519235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Dolphins58c40,000$23,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,799.9717454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdfcc…441bbacked Jets43c35,091$14,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,9703138.7%12 W · 19 L-3.9wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-29.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Jets34c35,000$11,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,749.9911755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Dolphins60c30,830$18,524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,306.25540%2 W · 3 L-1.5wins-0.30per pick70cpaid-40%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5646…3819backed Jets41c30,000$12,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,299.997035.7%25 W · 45 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd16a…7691backed Jets38c26,037$9,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,894.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick60cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Jets40c25,000$10,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,00024551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Dolphins59c23,733$14,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,655.845560%33 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Dolphins74c23,092$17,148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,943.9620634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Jets1c20,982$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.1722950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x134a…9e42backed Jets39c20,188$7,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,935.933633.3%12 W · 24 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-42.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e2c…ba05backed Jets42c20,000$8,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,40020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xee5b…0e96backed Dolphins58c19,678$11,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,264.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x823c…0425backed Jets42c19,673$8,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,29020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Dolphins63c18,887$11,839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,047.9641947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Jets10c17,689$1,822 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,822.4468446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Dolphins60c17,000$10,168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,831.5522450%112 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7474…4ebabacked Dolphins58c16,908$9,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,136.071361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Jets42c16,636$7,053 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,053.4310552.4%55 W · 50 L+3.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Jets16c15,962$2,492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,492.212138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f89…0d03backed Jets43c15,143$6,440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,4405330.2%16 W · 37 L-8.5wins-0.16per pick46cpaid-36.6%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Jets42c14,119$5,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,929.925527.3%15 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x63bf…e319backed Jets1c13,541$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008729.9%26 W · 61 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3ff9…bb89backed Jets33c13,500$4,461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,460.859952.5%52 W · 47 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-15.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7690…74e1backed Jets53c13,114$6,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,945.682343.5%10 W · 13 L-5.3wins-0.23per pick66cpaid-38.9%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Jets18c12,878$2,302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,301.5714147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Dolphins59c11,000$6,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,5101942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Jets42c10,000$4,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,199.973452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b7c…5f83backed Dolphins63c9,776$6,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,657.6127644.2%122 W · 154 L-7.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Jets42c9,524$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Jets29c9,086$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,622.1914926.2%39 W · 110 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-34.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dolphins58c7,500$4,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,15051352.2%268 W · 245 L+16.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xebc0…fa41backed Dolphins80c7,204$5,728 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,475.7710462.5%65 W · 39 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+45.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Dolphins67c7,180$4,802 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,378.394247.6%20 W · 22 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+9.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x02fc…2c31backed Dolphins63c7,100$4,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6271258.3%7 W · 5 L+2.5wins+0.21per pick38cpaid+44.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Dolphins59c7,069$4,171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,898.292828.6%8 W · 20 L-7.0wins-0.25per pick54cpaid-48%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Jets42c7,000$2,940 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,94011252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbd7…7098backed Dolphins59c7,000$4,130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8702100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Jets17c6,945$1,158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,157.7720026%52 W · 148 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-29.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x16b0…6902backed Jets43c6,000$2,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,58020%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Jets39c6,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3408343.4%36 W · 47 L+7.7wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+24%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb88a…3e55backed Jets42c6,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe168…563abacked Jets42c6,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,520250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Jets43c5,988$2,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5508648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd62b…86d0backed Jets43c5,814$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5006050%30 W · 30 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x49ee…7afebacked Dolphins59c5,500$3,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d48…d360backed Jets25c5,395$1,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,348.63837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-18.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8191…8a35backed Dolphins58c5,172$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,172.415160.8%31 W · 20 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+16.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dolphins69c5,057$3,473 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,583.4827348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x164f…deb3backed Dolphins58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1002556%14 W · 11 L+1.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+31.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Dolphins59c5,000$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0508959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Jets40c5,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Dolphins57c5,000$2,850 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,149.9914342%60 W · 83 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick37cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Dolphins63c4,788$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,788.387557.3%43 W · 32 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7816…ce35backed Jets19c4,736$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9007963.3%50 W · 29 L+6.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Jets7c4,722$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.4964747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x81b1…0f83backed Jets32c4,712$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5001225%3 W · 9 L-2.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-53.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Jets40c4,579$1,841 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,840.9224054.6%131 W · 109 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Jets1c4,426$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.491486.8%10 W · 138 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick2cpaid+296.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2d23…3edbbacked Dolphins59c4,407$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,806.87333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-43.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3e…ffffbacked Jets43c4,405$1,894 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,894.15757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+18%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Jets29c4,321$1,253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,253.4617144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc993…618cbacked Jets23c4,265$996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.37450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+96%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b88…5d08backed Dolphins60c4,167$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,666.6718650%93 W · 93 L+9.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+14.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa3b8…cf0abacked Dolphins59c4,050$2,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,660.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9335…b772backed Jets42c4,048$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,700.16520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.31per pick51cpaid-71%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bd8…f306backed Dolphins58c4,000$2,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6802653.8%14 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+9.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9bff…331cbacked Jets41c4,000$1,620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6202650%13 W · 13 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+22.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Jets42c4,000$1,672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,671.9926650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Dolphins58c3,917$2,285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.1712144.6%54 W · 67 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x650f…a403backed Dolphins58c3,900$2,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x561f…a932backed Jets38c3,845$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-16.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Jets16c3,630$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.5313430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xc57b…0a2bbacked Jets32c3,545$1,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1506536.9%24 W · 41 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-17.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1070…03b6backed Dolphins60c3,400$2,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,3614100%4 W · 0 L+1.7wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+81.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf507…b7d1backed Dolphins59c3,400$2,006 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,394366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+75.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09d0…743dbacked Jets42c3,200$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,33220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6a…1a00backed Jets42c3,151$1,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3201346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a3f…6fcebacked Jets43c3,100$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,333540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfed…db6fbacked Dolphins59c3,000$1,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2301100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.