NFL · resolved market
Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x666786dc83c2e708f665e6d5d364a6da00da60abc8f2699cb1f5d7ad2c4c14de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Dolphins, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,089
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,089 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Dolphins | 44c | 14,803$6,463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,339.68 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -4.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jets | 56c | 9,946$5,570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,569.51 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jets | 56c | 9,766$5,469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,468.96 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Jets | 57c | 6,000$3,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,429.99 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Dolphins | 41c | 3,646$1,495 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,151.03 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Jets | 59c | 2,710$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,599 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked Dolphins | 43c | 1,575$677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$897.93 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jets | 57c | 994.55$567 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$566.89 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Dolphins | 43c | 985.37$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.66 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b13…bfdabacked Jets | 59c | 928.9$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Jets | 57c | 900$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510 | 89 | 51.7%46 W · 43 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed Dolphins | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Dolphins | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 265 | 47.2%125 W · 140 L | +10.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed Jets | 57c | 438.6$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 200 | 39.5%79 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4192…7f00backed Dolphins | 44c | 400$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Jets | 59c | 233.81$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.95 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Jets | 61c | 184.89$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -7.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Dolphins | 39c | 145.89$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.99 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3f…a8bdbacked Dolphins | 42c | 132.29$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.73 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Dolphins | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.55 | 158 | 55.7%88 W · 70 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Dolphins | 41c | 41$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Dolphins | 42c | 31.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.54 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)this page
- Jets vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5Over won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5Over won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Over won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Dolphins (-1.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-4.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.