NFL · resolved market
Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf6aac58cacad663f304f45a23f7d09c2be5bb01449ebce838f198335e4496800
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,445
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Over | 55c | 12,000$6,580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,420 | 117 | 55.6%65 W · 52 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Under | 45c | 8,984$4,046 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,046.08 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef2…f473backed Under | 45c | 5,397$2,427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,426.72 | 46 | 28.3%13 W · 33 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -36%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Over | 55c | 5,000$2,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 46c | 2,174$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.95 | 111 | 39.6%44 W · 67 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Under | 45c | 1,200$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Over | 58c | 1,100$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462 | 158 | 51.9%82 W · 76 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 55c | 1,089$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.17 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 42c | 700$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 45c | 592$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.4 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Under | 45c | 544.36$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.85 | 412 | 48.5%200 W · 212 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaef…54e9backed Under | 42c | 406.87$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.89 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Over | 58c | 406$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.52 | 66 | 50%33 W · 33 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Under | 42c | 400$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5b…590dbacked Over | 54c | 333$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.18 | 103 | 45.6%47 W · 56 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 43c | 195.44$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5340…5e2bbacked Over | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ca…f9e6backed Over | 58c | 120$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.4 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38ce…5431backed Over | 68c | 103.03$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.03 | 82 | 57.3%47 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Over | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Over | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf3…2b57backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Under | 50c | 39.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Over | 54c | 36.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaef9…3b47backed Over | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +51.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5this page
- Jets vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5Over won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Over won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Dolphins (-1.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-4.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.