NFL · resolved market
Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd39651a396c19fdf72826d97889ea606b00c0b532488a433cca185b0c7c432d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Dolphinsof Dolphins, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $255,151
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $261,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $255,151 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Jets | 46c | 61,313$28,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,203.93 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b1d…74ccbacked Dolphins | 53c | 52,089$27,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,365.5 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | +5.5wins | +0.17per pick | 42cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Jets | 47c | 48,052$22,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,664.74 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Dolphins | 54c | 46,785$25,264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,521.1 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Dolphins | 54c | 25,698$13,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,821.08 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e98…1f51backed Dolphins | 53c | 21,271$11,274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,997.38 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…366bbacked Jets | 48c | 10,100$4,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,848 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x53e5…6177backed Jets | 47c | 10,000$4,700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,700 | 144 | 50%72 W · 72 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe63e…e2cfbacked Dolphins | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,800 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Jets | 47c | 9,243$4,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,344.3 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Dolphins | 54c | 9,018$4,877 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,141.66 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Jets | 47c | 9,000$4,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,230 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Dolphins | 52c | 6,467$3,363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,104.32 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…4527backed Dolphins | 52c | 6,018$3,129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,888.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Jets | 47c | 5,940$2,792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,791.8 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Jets | 47c | 5,000$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Dolphins | 53c | 4,372$2,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,054.67 | 89 | 59.6%53 W · 36 L | +7.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa613…d494backed Dolphins | 53c | 4,294$2,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.11 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e2f…ec47backed Dolphins | 53c | 3,546$1,879 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,666.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Jets | 47c | 3,236$1,521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520.92 | 53 | 30.2%16 W · 37 L | -8.5wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…0d9cbacked Dolphins | 54c | 2,778$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,277.78 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cda…6e17backed Dolphins | 53c | 2,407$1,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,131.13 | 123 | 52.8%65 W · 58 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x637a…6d23backed Jets | 48c | 2,100$1,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,008 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3134…1b18backed Jets | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Jets | 48c | 2,000$950 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$950 | 266 | 50.8%135 W · 131 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…5c3cbacked Jets | 48c | 1,475$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.85 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Jets | 47c | 1,211$569 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$569.17 | 544 | 51.7%281 W · 263 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Dolphins | 54c | 1,011$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.17 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ce…ddd7backed Jets | 47c | 1,000$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ac1…45dbbacked Dolphins | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 77 | 54.5%42 W · 35 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked Dolphins | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$470 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb790…8389backed Dolphins | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Jets | 45c | 675.68$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.23 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Dolphins | 52c | 500$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Jets | 46c | 500$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd35d…7089backed Jets | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ccf…2fedbacked Dolphins | 54c | 411.11$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.11 | 107 | 63.6%68 W · 39 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b02…393ebacked Dolphins | 53c | 400$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x363c…9b0ebacked Jets | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Jets | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 276 | 44.2%122 W · 154 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f79…1608backed Dolphins | 53c | 289.04$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.85 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -31%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe371…036ebacked Jets | 48c | 281.04$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…15d3backed Dolphins | 53c | 272.21$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.94 | 42 | 50%21 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8354…b291backed Dolphins | 53c | 261.66$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Jets | 46c | 244$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.24 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Jets | 47c | 214.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.05 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Jets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe727…5e8dbacked Jets | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…d105backed Jets | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e64…7308backed Dolphins | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.8wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Dolphins | 52c | 190.38$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.38 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Jets | 48c | 166.67$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Dolphins | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 280 | 47.5%133 W · 147 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa740…ee18backed Jets | 49c | 150$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25ad…46fcbacked Jets | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…1760backed Jets | 48c | 124.92$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438f…28fabacked Dolphins | 53c | 124.91$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.71 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.8wins | -0.28per pick | 58cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7576…f961backed Dolphins | 53c | 107.17$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.37 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc739…e7abbacked Jets | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Dolphins | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Dolphins | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 304 | 42.4%129 W · 175 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff6…bfd4backed Dolphins | 53c | 96$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf8b…bff8backed Dolphins | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +9.8wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Jets | 46c | 74.07$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.07 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb6…25eabacked Dolphins | 53c | 72.77$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed Jets | 48c | 64.24$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.73 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1bb…c285backed Dolphins | 52c | 62$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.76 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee68…9e8fbacked Dolphins | 54c | 48$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacff…3872backed Dolphins | 53c | 47.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.36 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff94…c347backed Dolphins | 53c | 42.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.07 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22b8…7b6ebacked Dolphins | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 170 | 60.6%103 W · 67 L | +12.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed Dolphins | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Dolphins | 51c | 32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf9d…3ea9backed Jets | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 266 | 60.9%162 W · 104 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…b18cbacked Dolphins | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 166 | 45.8%76 W · 90 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a45…36dcbacked Jets | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…fc16backed Dolphins | 53c | 19.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Dolphins (-2.5)this page
- Jets vs. DolphinsDolphins won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 42.5Over won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 44.5Over won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 45.5Over won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 47.5Over won
- Jets vs. Dolphins: O/U 49.5Under won
- Spread: Dolphins (-1.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-3.5)Dolphins won
- Spread: Dolphins (-4.5)Dolphins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.