NFL · resolved market
Spread: Ravens (-11.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x839a25f7bbf333896aca5e1e490ceefa0e3bcb724ec1e5872ac263be0de81e29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ravensof Ravens, Browns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,735
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,707
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,735 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Ravens | 51c | 48,335$24,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,885.47 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…0182backed Browns | 49c | 38,028$18,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18,633.84 | 106 | 50.9%54 W · 52 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Browns | 51c | 10,000$5,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,100 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Browns | 48c | 785.35$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$376.97 | 320 | 50.9%163 W · 157 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Ravens | 52c | 557$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.95 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Browns | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Ravens | 53c | 498$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.06 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc17…289abacked Browns | 51c | 400$203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.03 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Ravens | 49c | 392.16$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a11…abe7backed Ravens | 51c | 300$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed Browns | 48c | 289.99$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.2 | 206 | 46.1%95 W · 111 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce9…9c2dbacked Ravens | 52c | 226.92$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.92 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 12cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…2a13backed Browns | 51c | 200.25$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Browns | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Browns | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Ravens | 51c | 194.52$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.52 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +12.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Browns | 47c | 191.61$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.91 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…2771backed Ravens | 53c | 190$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.49 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Browns | 51c | 186$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.81 | 121 | 38.8%47 W · 74 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Ravens | 52c | 153.85$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.85 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Browns | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Ravens | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…1e88backed Ravens | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.05 | 145 | 37.2%54 W · 91 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbc5…53c3backed Ravens | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Ravens | 52c | 96.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.44 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9486…eecdbacked Browns | 51c | 88.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Browns | 47c | 72.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…606ebacked Browns | 35c | 57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Ravens | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60f5…e262backed Browns | 49c | 21.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32f4…c885backed Ravens | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 310 | 32.6%101 W · 209 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Browns | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 198 | 44.9%89 W · 109 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Ravens | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02f7…b17abacked Ravens | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Ravens (-11.5)this page
- Browns vs. RavensRavens won
- Browns vs. Ravens: O/U 44.5Over won
- Browns vs. Ravens: O/U 45.5Over won
- Browns vs. Ravens: O/U 46.5Over won
- Spread: Ravens (-10.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-13.5)Ravens won
- Spread: Ravens (-14.5)Ravens won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.