TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$603,448
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$463,761

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $603,448 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 396 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x20db…63ccbacked No69c54,821$37,826 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,994.51250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick71cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd2d…2fe3backed Yes31c54,821$16,995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,994.5120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes5c19,586$957 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$956.926291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a15…6bd4backed Yes8c13,344$1,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,048.830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe158…9d56backed Yes15c12,887$1,936 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,936.36137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfe7e…c200backed Yes19c12,495$2,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.761216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes2c12,010$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.72920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dcb…bf17backed Yes1c11,499$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.3240%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Yes1c10,454$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.87486.3%3 W · 45 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick15cpaid-76.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes1c10,399$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.1215615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes4c9,998$429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.4624315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb46d…7093backed Yes5c9,201$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$419.751414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-57.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d49…4f7cbacked Yes2c8,855$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.63837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-38.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No69c7,630$5,231 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,399.482147.6%10 W · 11 L-3.3wins-0.16per pick63cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x195b…57e8backed Yes1c7,390$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.68120%0 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes31c7,206$2,246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,246.272326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcad4…1a4cbacked Yes5c5,710$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.461225%3 W · 9 L-1.6wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-62.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b12…0b94backed Yes2c5,598$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed2f…9d1bbacked Yes3c5,210$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes28c4,860$1,383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.59520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes4c4,223$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.222560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes38c3,868$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.58850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c3,578$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.962110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes37c3,508$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.071822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick34cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf31a…838bbacked Yes6c3,412$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.92520%1 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-69.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes4c3,400$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1351051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5235…c04abacked Yes8c3,292$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.963411.8%4 W · 30 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-79%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e6a…bee7backed Yes13c3,095$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes5c3,000$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.34195.3%1 W · 18 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick11cpaid+31.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5999…ae94backed Yes32c2,861$909 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909.37951.9%41 W · 38 L+3.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid-10.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked No67c2,860$1,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.62633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-53.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60cc…ff9bbacked Yes4c2,676$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.0910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b90…ce04backed Yes11c2,631$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5c3…1f5fbacked Yes38c2,618$995 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$994.88560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.18per pick42cpaid+54.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes37c2,528$943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$943.244231%13 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes33c2,500$826 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.251717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+261.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes7c2,390$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.8957426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes2c2,145$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$341711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-82.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes29c2,057$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.1511030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x84ca…dccebacked Yes2c2,051$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.8210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes9c2,048$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.069915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c1,787$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.111,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e56…c47bbacked Yes9c1,769$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1809…4eb7backed No65c1,768$1,157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$611.152544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf024…8393backed Yes2c1,735$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1de…5834backed Yes2c1,694$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.54333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick25cpaid-47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes32c1,649$534 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$533.913627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x599d…6521backed Yes1c1,637$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-58.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe408…232bbacked Yes34c1,584$539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.791414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8a8…01bcbacked Yes31c1,567$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.09425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc2…3ef7backed Yes8c1,566$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0215…c398backed No64c1,563$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes6c1,538$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.1712839.8%51 W · 77 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes5c1,527$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.722740.7%11 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.15per pick26cpaid+41%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7842…4d91backed Yes7c1,525$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.466841.2%28 W · 40 L+8.4wins+0.12per pick29cpaid+54.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x218f…7ef2backed Yes44c1,522$662 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662.31714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.15per pick29cpaid-76.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes24c1,500$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3604641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes12c1,419$175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.77140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes35c1,311$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.261747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddc0…3a00backed Yes13c1,225$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick37cpaid+82.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes30c1,216$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.45728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd29…a638backed Yes26c1,147$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.27633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-39.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e70…1ebdbacked Yes38c1,106$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.57250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-28.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59c8…b623backed Yes1c1,100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-9.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes6c1,077$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.141502.7%4 W · 146 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ddc…77a1backed Yes5c1,043$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96d5…2306backed Yes3c1,042$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x037d…161bbacked Yes6c1,039$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.35714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick22cpaid+104.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xee75…88dabacked Yes30c1,032$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.6147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick13cpaid+50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes11c1,003$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.555221.2%11 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5464…be5ebacked No60c1,000$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4cf…1f03backed Yes33c964.29$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.51030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-51.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b37…de68backed Yes36c957.75$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.78944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+36.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes37c952.62$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.648644.2%38 W · 48 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+10%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9aa…e347backed Yes18c948.65$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.97190%0 W · 19 L-3.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes8c935.98$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.776428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x202d…f8dabacked Yes22c904$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x412f…a840backed Yes1c850.78$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1150%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No79c849.23$667 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.511353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes40c837.18$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$333.353145.2%14 W · 17 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick36cpaid+105.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a52…e95ebacked Yes30c819.83$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.95333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+75.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2417…5d1ebacked Yes12c809.67$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-82%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95a2…0f44backed Yes2c807.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0223…34d1backed Yes14c802.06$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed No69c799.19$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.744146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2a6d…60c8backed Yes14c779.58$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1091346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-24.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes7c752.63$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.2695.8%4 W · 65 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6496…8846backed Yes27c730.18$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe85e…775fbacked Yes21c720$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.460%0 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x171d…5976backed Yes4c682.68$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3050%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes38c676.39$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.4410933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Yes13c666$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.5830%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd0…9957backed Yes3c661.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2060%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes32c651.14$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.362512%3 W · 22 L-2.7wins-0.11per pick23cpaid-76.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc0a6…d2e8backed Yes11c617.22$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.89333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-44.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x698f…ae41backed Yes28c609.95$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17030%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcdf…085ebacked Yes31c602.71$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.83933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x904f…50c6backed Yes36c600$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.860%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa1cb…69ffbacked Yes18c600$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes31c600$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18640%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.