AI · resolved market
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0f8b644e78bbe65c2ab9ff2aa3a9a0df135d76a46438b5584b3fe448d358bd47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $531,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $298,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $531,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xed2f…9d1bbacked Yes | 0c | 35,956$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.13 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 34,000$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 29,314$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.2 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 25,347$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 21,664$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.66 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 15,258$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.7 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 10,971$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.83 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 3c | 7,995$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222.04 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf024…8393backed Yes | 1c | 6,693$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…4eb7backed Yes | 2c | 6,457$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 5,713$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.46 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes | 3c | 5,684$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 5,527$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.8 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…f00bbacked Yes | 3c | 4,864$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…096fbacked Yes | 3c | 4,719$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.64 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ee4…4ccabacked Yes | 4c | 4,543$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,500$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.48 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…6122backed Yes | 0c | 4,209$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…7e45backed Yes | 2c | 4,013$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.57 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,717$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.33 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes | 2c | 3,691$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.75 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +310.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…7d56backed Yes | 2c | 3,647$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.62 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd46…b8a5backed Yes | 2c | 3,527$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,456$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.38 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e4…517abacked Yes | 3c | 3,410$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 3c | 3,326$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.13 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 2c | 3,314$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.54 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf69a…1326backed Yes | 2c | 3,297$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 3,117$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.69 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68da…ee52backed Yes | 5c | 3,078$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccef…c302backed Yes | 2c | 3,052$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf846…8b9fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,000$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x903f…46a1backed Yes | 2c | 2,968$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7150…9fecbacked Yes | 2c | 2,800$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 6c | 2,743$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.51 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 3c | 2,680$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.52 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 2c | 2,335$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.87 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…73e6backed Yes | 6c | 2,185$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f1…0218backed Yes | 2c | 2,072$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c87…c027backed Yes | 7c | 2,025$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7396…d489backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee49…155ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b1f…1e95backed Yes | 1c | 1,972$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…1ccfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,940$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c36…8e8bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,850$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2449…3799backed Yes | 2c | 1,691$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c29…d822backed Yes | 4c | 1,633$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,521$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.4 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…dcd8backed Yes | 2c | 1,458$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…d26fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,400$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…47bcbacked Yes | 2c | 1,343$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…132ebacked Yes | 9c | 1,287$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 2c | 1,283$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 1c | 1,104$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ad…a3dabacked Yes | 1c | 1,071$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 4c | 1,058$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.69 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…e1e2backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabd8…1228backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 3c | 961.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00b…3606backed Yes | 3c | 952.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…55bcbacked Yes | 2c | 901.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Yes | 6c | 900$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bf…1816backed Yes | 2c | 853.56$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 2c | 827$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd23b…8b75backed Yes | 6c | 825.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51a4…0e62backed Yes | 3c | 773.7$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c35…1a76backed Yes | 5c | 719.09$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34b0…9017backed Yes | 2c | 603.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 5c | 594.52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.53 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa0a9…27f7backed Yes | 2c | 507.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1588…0f2fbacked Yes | 2c | 505.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3166…a9febacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.39 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 5c | 261.03$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?Yes won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.