AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3642c7a7c9ac737ee35be2ffa14c0f91a928b22544219576a020ba72d4ac8d22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $378,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $168,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $378,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 27,086$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 18,732$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.49 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 16,845$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.07 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 12,156$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 12,026$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 1c | 9,795$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.57 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 9,604$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 1c | 9,111$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.9 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 2c | 8,196$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.09 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa73e…1d9ebacked Yes | 2c | 5,287$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 4,676$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | +6.0wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf024…8393backed Yes | 1c | 4,183$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ad…c74dbacked Yes | 0c | 3,481$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 2c | 3,388$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…bb87backed Yes | 2c | 3,387$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.02 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7268…c903backed Yes | 2c | 2,435$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.84 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 1c | 2,165$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 2,136$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,947$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed Yes | 1c | 1,400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73b8…1ccfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,387$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 21cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…0242backed Yes | 7c | 1,363$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,171$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa300…448abacked Yes | 2c | 1,123$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa6…6205backed Yes | 1c | 1,121$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…1dcabacked Yes | 1c | 1,112$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…5fa9backed Yes | 1c | 1,034$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf6…cf40backed Yes | 2c | 1,019$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…889bbacked Yes | 2c | 971.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 4c | 896.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 3c | 896.1$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.37 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 1c | 881$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2d…063fbacked Yes | 2c | 597.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 23cpaid | +185.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf17…880fbacked Yes | 5c | 577.93$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd74f…95cdbacked Yes | 3c | 563.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1a…fa3abacked Yes | 2c | 512.15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd23b…8b75backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?this page
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.