TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$403,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$259,353

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $403,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 118 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c31,453$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.846291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c20,063$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.422920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c17,581$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.25460%0 W · 46 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes4c15,843$598 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$598.2324315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf024…8393backed Yes0c9,151$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4470%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c5…4109backed Yes5c7,656$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$345.17190%0 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1809…4eb7backed Yes5c7,368$343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$342.532544%11 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-37.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes8c7,288$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.8811030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c6,370$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.631051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c5,445$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.33220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3067…5862backed Yes3c5,353$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x880c…440abacked Yes2c5,341$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.992416.7%4 W · 20 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-55.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes0c5,032$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.25821.2%1 W · 81 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c4,995$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.695813.8%8 W · 50 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick3cpaid+63.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4f0…3800backed Yes3c4,255$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-57.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes4c4,078$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$175.5757426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68da…ee52backed Yes6c3,787$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237.9480%0 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf24d…6a5fbacked Yes0c3,667$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-87%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes0c3,643$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.16120%0 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb02a…bde3backed Yes3c3,401$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77c6…8019backed Yes3c3,309$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.681010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-85.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8341…de89backed Yes7c3,284$236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.062128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-17.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes3c3,234$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.471910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes3c3,104$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.729915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5d74…ee45backed Yes4c3,099$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.431315.4%2 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.15per pick31cpaid-60.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80f9…b02dbacked Yes4c2,988$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xedf6…cf40backed Yes6c2,831$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.484146.3%19 W · 22 L+3.7wins+0.09per pick37cpaid-7.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x33c9…858bbacked Yes0c2,746$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12130%0 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd00f…d691backed Yes4c2,627$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf24…5058backed Yes5c2,526$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.7810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd23…0242backed Yes5c2,521$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.93119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7fd6…3b62backed Yes6c2,501$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.07450%2 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.39per pick11cpaid+233%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa73e…1d9ebacked Yes4c2,408$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d25…b175backed Yes3c2,373$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ac1…8974backed Yes5c2,113$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68d1…3c4dbacked Yes2c1,980$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.778150.6%41 W · 40 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid-10.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb78e…30e3backed Yes7c1,960$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$133.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.34per pick33cpaid+57.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x78c5…1ecabacked Yes2c1,934$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.01540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-18.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x59cc…2ab4backed Yes19c1,727$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$319.820%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes3c1,724$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506829.4%20 W · 48 L+6.0wins+0.09per pick21cpaid-13.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x95b9…007fbacked Yes7c1,702$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.4310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee6…b5bcbacked Yes7c1,521$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.071717.6%3 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick15cpaid+261.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7396…d489backed Yes1c1,429$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8640%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x132b…be94backed Yes5c1,417$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.981435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507b…06c0backed Yes7c1,411$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+105.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2688…cb00backed Yes7c1,374$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.697536%27 W · 48 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72ea…b6bcbacked Yes4c1,324$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f75…ee02backed Yes5c1,310$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.8150%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c4a…a72ebacked Yes2c1,305$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.2750%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes6c1,296$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.755817.2%10 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f2…c208backed Yes6c1,261$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.91323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick30cpaid-63.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3735…29c3backed Yes13c1,199$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes7c1,029$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.996011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6bb9…74bfbacked Yes3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick61cpaid-2.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xefbb…65e8backed Yes3c999.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-40.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes8c879.47$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.899725.8%25 W · 72 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9178…a2b2backed Yes8c861.53$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.72913.8%4 W · 25 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick19cpaid+13.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1581…6cadbacked Yes8c831.23$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.42313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+168.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d8…3024backed Yes6c708.06$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.39714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick23cpaid-52.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes7c699.69$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.68520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb8…7690backed Yes7c698.78$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd843…7d56backed Yes4c696.48$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.99100%0 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf767…6a5dbacked Yes2c679.77$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes6c668.46$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.383010%3 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c643.74$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.061,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x784b…f781backed Yes3c628.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18100%0 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes6c619$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.96382.6%1 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-87.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed Yes5c614.4$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.74825%2 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-59.5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…73e6backed Yes6c610$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.1830%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2fe5…4e08backed Yes3c575.46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.161216.7%2 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+310.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes6c556.31$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.13627.8%10 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-49.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes4c544.97$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.32214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06af…98c5backed Yes7c526.36$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x771a…096fbacked Yes6c522$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.211612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c68…9ed5backed Yes19c518.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c87…c027backed Yes6c510$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.81812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-83.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes3c493.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.542110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbd61…0616backed Yes20c468.36$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.9510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x468e…bbcfbacked Yes3c461.63$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf43a…cafcbacked Yes4c440.19$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.79166.3%1 W · 15 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-91.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3066…7714backed Yes4c437.08$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.44714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick21cpaid-73.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5a…3965backed Yes5c425.75$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201752.9%9 W · 8 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7ad…8e81backed Yes7c419.59$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x787f…cf59backed Yes3c388$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42c5…ec3dbacked Yes3c361.28$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-69.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9127…6ff3backed Yes5c350$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.921533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-27.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x983f…fd5ebacked Yes5c350$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2774…07dfbacked Yes14c336.66$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec76…1036backed Yes7c329.03$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-41.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b33…7fd4backed Yes17c320.99$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.540%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc9df…d8bcbacked Yes13c316.3$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-26.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac0…a602backed Yes6c315.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-27.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1d2…12d5backed Yes12c291.75$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x263d…ba12backed Yes14c281.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x06af…f499backed Yes7c279.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc7a…cc34backed Yes7c255$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.3240%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7d1a…fa3abacked Yes8c248.21$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2767…886abacked Yes8c237.47$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a0…9e85backed Yes5c224.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.96825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd976…1025backed Yes5c212.31$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.