TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$554,352
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$328,783

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $554,352 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x07d4…8991backed Yes1c49,009$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.276291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe7e…c200backed Yes5c32,849$1,741 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,740.791216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick26cpaid-63.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x63a4…b5dcbacked Yes11c26,031$2,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,889.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c23,048$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.28460%0 W · 46 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c21,616$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.412920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes2c15,082$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.321051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes0c11,629$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.321502.7%4 W · 146 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick5cpaid-49.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes29c11,178$3,245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,245.0724315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf024…8393backed Yes0c8,284$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3070%0 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes2c8,041$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.953414.7%5 W · 29 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7ddc…77a1backed Yes1c7,260$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4430%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e56…dee1backed Yes10c6,827$706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$705.84850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8a8…01bcbacked Yes6c6,338$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.06425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed Yes11c5,762$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.0111030.9%34 W · 76 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick35cpaid+5.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fad…1480backed Yes3c5,579$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.3615615.4%24 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-79.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x270a…7b78backed Yes1c5,522$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.756428.1%18 W · 46 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-30.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf24d…6a5fbacked Yes0c5,380$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick20cpaid-87%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1f82…6122backed Yes0c5,301$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0706…6ffebacked Yes1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-84.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x524c…64c8backed Yes2c3,801$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.31910.5%2 W · 17 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-69%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60fd…1d52backed Yes11c3,386$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.891833.3%6 W · 12 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+93.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23ca…63b8backed Yes10c3,345$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.540%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd23…0242backed Yes7c3,047$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.09119.1%1 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-85%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a63…6ef7backed Yes1c2,551$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7550%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes5c2,518$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115140%0 W · 14 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc5cb…a994backed Yes1c2,300$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0b0e…aae0backed Yes8c2,099$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes6c2,083$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.485221.2%11 W · 41 L+0.2wins0.00per pick21cpaid-63.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8b…dcecbacked Yes10c2,080$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes3c2,031$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.812560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x532e…84f4backed Yes1c2,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes12c2,000$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick34cpaid+11.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd398…f00bbacked Yes7c1,989$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.77812.5%1 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick7cpaid-45%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes5c1,883$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.292110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x735d…78cfbacked Yes3c1,769$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.139915.2%15 W · 84 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+22.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes5c1,498$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.225817.2%10 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe158…9d56backed Yes4c1,476$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.88137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.1wins-0.16per pick24cpaid-88.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed Yes4c1,473$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594231%13 W · 29 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-0.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x048a…eb07backed Yes5c1,394$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.854117.1%7 W · 34 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick21cpaid-34.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No30c1,332$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$932.41030%3 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.17per pick13cpaid+70.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x430c…0c89backed Yes8c1,260$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.72714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x468f…c2a7backed Yes8c1,236$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004228.6%12 W · 30 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-55.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2456…93d2backed Yes8c1,216$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.95616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.24per pick41cpaid-79.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes10c1,207$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6930%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes6c1,164$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5657426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a95…6a76backed Yes5c1,110$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.85728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick21cpaid-42%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes15c1,095$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.511323.1%3 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes2c1,076$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.38450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-30.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x397e…93b8backed Yes5c1,075$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,030$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.781,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3fb…b340backed Yes15c1,014$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.231631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid-11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6352…2a27backed Yes1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.11per pick39cpaid-34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked Yes15c995.17$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.3728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-34.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd622…dee0backed Yes11c910.86$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-31.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes10c908.84$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.0910933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58f4…0221backed Yes8c900$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c94…7e2cbacked Yes7c898.1$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9d4…18febacked Yes8c894.52$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.4wins+0.35per pick22cpaid+90.8%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes7c870.14$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick24cpaid+8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes6c842.24$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4911346%52 W · 61 L+11.1wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd843…7d56backed Yes12c766.51$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.17100%0 W · 10 L-1.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x771a…096fbacked Yes10c762.56$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc178…35b3backed No20c744.8$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$595.841776.5%13 W · 4 L+6.1wins+0.36per pick41cpaid+90.3%equal weight66+0.15 edge/pick
0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes11c712.82$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.71435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-47.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a9c…09ddbacked Yes10c702.97$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.96922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick25cpaid+135.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bf4…c4a2backed Yes15c686.33$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes12c670.37$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.4470%0 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3974…d26fbacked Yes5c667.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c97…7e45backed Yes5c667.39$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfcdf…085ebacked Yes15c667$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.05933.3%3 W · 6 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid+49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No30c666$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.23125.8%8 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.13per pick13cpaid+104%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No30c666$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.24531.1%14 W · 31 L+8.4wins+0.19per pick13cpaid+143.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes13c630.95$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.07520%1 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-17.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57a3…9dcdbacked Yes10c624.55$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.971338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick37cpaid-39.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes6c615.36$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.06695.8%4 W · 65 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-78.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes7c603.93$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.243010%3 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid+41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x020b…132ebacked Yes17c573.36$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100825%2 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-61%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x748f…f6e5backed Yes5c572.61$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.05425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.15per pick10cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes9c554.57$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.46011.7%7 W · 53 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-37.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeadb…7dbfbacked Yes7c552.2$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb95b…acdebacked Yes9c549.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0953…bb73backed Yes6c532$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbe3d…815bbacked Yes4c524.98$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes8c500$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.743043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.08per pick35cpaid-33.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x06df…4e7abacked Yes16c500$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.07812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-82.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c87…c027backed Yes6c500$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.96812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-83.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes5c497.73$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick37cpaid-75.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x132b…be94backed Yes9c497.62$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.341435.7%5 W · 9 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick32cpaid-41.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes7c493.53$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.893429.4%10 W · 24 L-7.2wins-0.21per pick51cpaid-53.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0x3b37…6962backed Yes3c487.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f75…ee02backed Yes7c481.55$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7650%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x60b5…2891backed Yes5c455.27$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes10c444$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.95382.6%1 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick7cpaid-87.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes4c430.25$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0930127.2%82 W · 219 L+1.1wins0.00per pick27cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes14c400$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$542638.5%10 W · 16 L+2.0wins+0.08per pick31cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1581…6cadbacked Yes12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482313%3 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+168.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…9d12backed Yes12c400$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.511241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-27.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdea0…28a0backed Yes6c399$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7420%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91d8…dbc6backed Yes4c393.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1550%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4a11…33f5backed Yes6c390$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.7930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.