AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd40a952afb5e78600bc4e41a1587a1f18fe40c803edc5d4a7d5de76ff8660ec2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $554,352
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $328,783
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $554,352 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 1c | 49,009$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.27 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7e…c200backed Yes | 5c | 32,849$1,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,740.79 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a4…b5dcbacked Yes | 11c | 26,031$2,889 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,889.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 23,048$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.28 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 21,616$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.41 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 2c | 15,082$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.32 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,629$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.32 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 29c | 11,178$3,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,245.07 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf024…8393backed Yes | 0c | 8,284$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42d8…ff9bbacked Yes | 2c | 8,041$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.95 | 34 | 14.7%5 W · 29 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ddc…77a1backed Yes | 1c | 7,260$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…dee1backed Yes | 10c | 6,827$706 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$705.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a8…01bcbacked Yes | 6c | 6,338$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.06 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -51%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 11c | 5,762$648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.01 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 3c | 5,579$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.36 | 156 | 15.4%24 W · 132 L | -8.9wins | -0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x270a…7b78backed Yes | 1c | 5,522$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24d…6a5fbacked Yes | 0c | 5,380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 20cpaid | -87%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…6122backed Yes | 0c | 5,301$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0706…6ffebacked Yes | 1c | 5,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 20cpaid | -84.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 2c | 3,801$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.3 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -69%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…1d52backed Yes | 11c | 3,386$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.89 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ca…63b8backed Yes | 10c | 3,345$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$335.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd23…0242backed Yes | 7c | 3,047$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.09 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -85%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a63…6ef7backed Yes | 1c | 2,551$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf789…c4ccbacked Yes | 5c | 2,518$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cb…a994backed Yes | 1c | 2,300$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b0e…aae0backed Yes | 8c | 2,099$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce1d…81dbbacked Yes | 6c | 2,083$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.48 | 52 | 21.2%11 W · 41 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8b…dcecbacked Yes | 10c | 2,080$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 2,031$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x532e…84f4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed Yes | 12c | 2,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.24per pick | 34cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…f00bbacked Yes | 7c | 1,989$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -45%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 5c | 1,883$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.29 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x735d…78cfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,769$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.13 | 99 | 15.2%15 W · 84 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 5c | 1,498$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.22 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe158…9d56backed Yes | 4c | 1,476$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.88 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 24cpaid | -88.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed Yes | 4c | 1,473$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048a…eb07backed Yes | 5c | 1,394$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.85 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5172…0581backed No | 30c | 1,332$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$932.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 13cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x430c…0c89backed Yes | 8c | 1,260$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.72 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x468f…c2a7backed Yes | 8c | 1,236$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 28.6%12 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2456…93d2backed Yes | 8c | 1,216$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.95 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…e6dbbacked Yes | 10c | 1,207$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,164$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.56 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a95…6a76backed Yes | 5c | 1,110$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -42%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Yes | 15c | 1,095$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.51 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf1…80a7backed Yes | 2c | 1,076$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…93b8backed Yes | 5c | 1,075$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 1,030$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.78 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fb…b340backed Yes | 15c | 1,014$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.23 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6352…2a27backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe75f…edafbacked Yes | 15c | 995.17$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…dee0backed Yes | 11c | 910.86$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 10c | 908.84$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.09 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…0221backed Yes | 8c | 900$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c94…7e2cbacked Yes | 7c | 898.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d4…18febacked Yes | 8c | 894.52$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.4wins | +0.35per pick | 22cpaid | +90.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fdf…3b40backed Yes | 7c | 870.14$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca52…0cdfbacked Yes | 6c | 842.24$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +11.1wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd843…7d56backed Yes | 12c | 766.51$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.17 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…096fbacked Yes | 10c | 762.56$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc178…35b3backed No | 20c | 744.8$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$595.84 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +6.1wins | +0.36per pick | 41cpaid | +90.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x89b5…ab4cbacked Yes | 11c | 712.82$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9c…09ddbacked Yes | 10c | 702.97$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.96 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +135.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf4…c4a2backed Yes | 15c | 686.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53d2…0c3fbacked Yes | 12c | 670.37$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.44 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3974…d26fbacked Yes | 5c | 667.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…7e45backed Yes | 5c | 667.39$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.37 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcdf…085ebacked Yes | 15c | 667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.05 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cde…5b98backed No | 30c | 666$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.2 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.13per pick | 13cpaid | +104%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 30c | 666$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.2 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.19per pick | 13cpaid | +143.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x542c…f12bbacked Yes | 13c | 630.95$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.07 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a3…9dcdbacked Yes | 10c | 624.55$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.97 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 6c | 615.36$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.06 | 69 | 5.8%4 W · 65 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -78.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 7c | 603.93$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.24 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | +41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x020b…132ebacked Yes | 17c | 573.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748f…f6e5backed Yes | 5c | 572.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 554.57$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.4 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeadb…7dbfbacked Yes | 7c | 552.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb95b…acdebacked Yes | 9c | 549.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0953…bb73backed Yes | 6c | 532$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3d…815bbacked Yes | 4c | 524.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…3c2dbacked Yes | 8c | 500$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.74 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06df…4e7abacked Yes | 16c | 500$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -82.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c87…c027backed Yes | 6c | 500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -83.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb83b…ebf8backed Yes | 5c | 497.73$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 37cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x132b…be94backed Yes | 9c | 497.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.34 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 7c | 493.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 34 | 29.4%10 W · 24 L | -7.2wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed Yes | 3c | 487.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f75…ee02backed Yes | 7c | 481.55$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60b5…2891backed Yes | 5c | 455.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 10c | 444$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.95 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 7cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 4c | 430.25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8d2…d6d2backed Yes | 14c | 400$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1581…6cadbacked Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +168.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…9d12backed Yes | 12c | 400$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea0…28a0backed Yes | 6c | 399$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d8…dbc6backed Yes | 4c | 393.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a11…33f5backed Yes | 6c | 390$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on June 30?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on June 30?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on June 30?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.