AI · resolved market
Will Sam Altman get OpenAI equity in 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e13d9c56cf34c9d223a33086994b1daeb5650a338d07ed0638146b3251f3433
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $338,534
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $322,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $338,534 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xad8f…b090backed No | 60c | 36,100$21,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,440 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56bb…5637backed Yes | 40c | 36,100$14,440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,440 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf426…e665backed No | 60c | 30,012$18,007 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,004.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfab3…faa2backed Yes | 40c | 30,012$12,005 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,004.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fa…a4e1backed Yes | 39c | 27,702$10,804 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,803.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c46…3779backed No | 61c | 27,702$16,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,803.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e57…5f66backed No | 53c | 26,336$13,958 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,377.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc34…8b32backed Yes | 47c | 26,336$12,378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,377.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3413…5204backed Yes | 16c | 5,298$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.15 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -77.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 33c | 2,646$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.48 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e7f…2d2dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,567$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.05 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 6c | 2,547$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.64 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9dc…4d2fbacked Yes | 9c | 2,000$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 4c | 1,901$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,841$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 36c | 1,800$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,152 | 94 | 35.1%33 W · 61 L | +13.1wins | +0.14per pick | 21cpaid | +167%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 36c | 1,736$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.6 | 258 | 31.8%82 W · 176 L | -14.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc9dc…9026backed No | 41c | 1,200$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +144.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 17c | 1,061$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.2 | 35 | 14.3%5 W · 30 L | -4.0wins | -0.11per pick | 26cpaid | -81%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 4c | 984.31$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb5…7588backed Yes | 10c | 958.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f4…e93dbacked Yes | 17c | 853$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 29c | 840$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.1 | 76 | 11.8%9 W · 67 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed No | 76c | 826.07$626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.44 | 72 | 22.2%16 W · 56 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed No | 69c | 792.54$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.05 | 88 | 64.8%57 W · 31 L | +8.4wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f95…7c6dbacked Yes | 13c | 776.92$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da7…c168backed Yes | 13c | 769.23$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 68c | 765$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.18 | 60 | 41.7%25 W · 35 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf503…39e2backed Yes | 13c | 757.61$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.39 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0b…3f0bbacked Yes | 27c | 706.52$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.39 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 58c | 703.81$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$406.07 | 460 | 38.9%179 W · 281 L | -31.9wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Yes | 47c | 659.59$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.23 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1818…4143backed Yes | 14c | 600$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f7…77c3backed No | 68c | 557.8$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.57 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7478…4003backed No | 74c | 500$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 40c | 493.49$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.93 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | -4.9wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc04…09c4backed Yes | 45c | 490$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7488…4a0ebacked No | 55c | 490$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4656…ba7fbacked Yes | 12c | 489.51$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8374…6768backed Yes | 11c | 454.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 9c | 444.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.68 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 7c | 442$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.36 | 323 | 29.1%94 W · 229 L | -15.8wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc1…818dbacked Yes | 13c | 425$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.94 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 30cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094e…f10bbacked No | 35c | 422.22$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.32 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +4.9wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa02f…e4b1backed No | 69c | 411$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.52 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 34cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 14c | 376.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.16 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1955…aef1backed No | 59c | 373$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.6 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.15per pick | 28cpaid | +166.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cf…9fc6backed Yes | 12c | 354$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.11 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -60%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf555…b2d5backed Yes | 6c | 350$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -92.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 18c | 334$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.61 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff4…17d1backed Yes | 60c | 330.63$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6828…1056backed No | 42c | 298.64$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.31 | 118 | 50%59 W · 59 L | +12.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x50f3…c2c2backed Yes | 31c | 278.29$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.74 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 18c | 267$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.52 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e6b…a799backed No | 45c | 263.1$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.46 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb28a…6d4abacked Yes | 75c | 249.63$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.16 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 63c | 244.49$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.18 | 110 | 30.9%34 W · 76 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 36c | 234.84$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.56 | 731 | 35.6%260 W · 471 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Yes | 62c | 229.04$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa518…41e3backed No | 26c | 202$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.48 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +102%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee7e…7cccbacked Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f86…54d6backed No | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1773…f4e3backed Yes | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 75c | 194.97$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 894 | 17.1%153 W · 741 L | -145.2wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5d83…0bb9backed No | 46c | 186.32$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.61 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fd3…aeddbacked Yes | 42c | 178$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.07 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd63c…5462backed Yes | 78c | 176.48$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146c…f5ccbacked No | 65c | 154.11$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 15c | 153.93$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b62…53bcbacked Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f42…d8fdbacked Yes | 10c | 150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed No | 48c | 144.21$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.41 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +6.5wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xaec0…b953backed Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes | 17c | 139.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed Yes | 11c | 139.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5c…a435backed No | 75c | 133.79$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4717…4877backed Yes | 10c | 133.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a4…f692backed Yes | 15c | 133.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 12c | 128$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 96 | 37.5%36 W · 60 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e1…7c9fbacked No | 36c | 123.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.16 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 26c | 122.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7b…f74ebacked No | 65c | 122$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 69cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ae…5b2bbacked Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf715…d920backed No | 71c | 110.23$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f50…1fb6backed No | 73c | 107.98$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.28 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -3.5wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa40a…0615backed Yes | 9c | 106.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…1dadbacked No | 62c | 105.32$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.74 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 37c | 102.39$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.51 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd91d…a524backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1939…0f41backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefab…b927backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6573…ab02backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a1…0ee9backed No | 72c | 100$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34e…8faebacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a5…4540backed Yes | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb99…8c33backed No | 61c | 93.11$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7403…a5e7backed Yes | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3e…58c7backed Yes | 37c | 85.56$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked Yes | 17c | 85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.