College Football · resolved market
Oregon vs. Penn State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xfb41ad72ca45f94f335a6eef84daf6a761262a87cc581ebf9711a4bd44599bc3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregonof Oregon, Penn State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $509,251
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $554,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $509,251 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 209 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Oregon | 45c | 117,637$52,963 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64,673.61 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Penn State | 62c | 71,596$44,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44,086.16 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Oregon | 38c | 66,537$24,990 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41,546.86 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Penn State | 63c | 45,509$28,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28,819.99 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…4c40backed Oregon | 37c | 41,942$15,518 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,423.19 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Penn State | 63c | 40,000$25,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,199.97 | 97 | 50.5%49 W · 48 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Oregon | 36c | 16,061$5,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,278.83 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Penn State | 63c | 13,786$8,685 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,685.21 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Penn State | 58c | 12,864$7,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,441.99 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3672…edbdbacked Oregon | 55c | 12,559$6,880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,679.06 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 61cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penn State | 62c | 9,884$6,128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,127.91 | 526 | 41.8%220 W · 306 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbc…f458backed Oregon | 39c | 9,692$3,780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,912.3 | 107 | 50.5%54 W · 53 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed Penn State | 64c | 7,780$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Penn State | 40c | 7,265$2,885 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,884.87 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Oregon | 37c | 7,000$2,590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,409.99 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Oregon | 51c | 5,749$2,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,841.06 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f89…0d03backed Oregon | 38c | 5,263$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,263.16 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4762…ba70backed Oregon | 38c | 5,200$1,971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,229.03 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9830…df31backed Penn State | 61c | 5,000$3,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,050 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked Oregon | 40c | 4,967$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,966.79 | 179 | 46.9%84 W · 95 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2f…eca9backed Penn State | 60c | 4,841$2,905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,904.6 | 95 | 40%38 W · 57 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe639…9122backed Oregon | 39c | 4,590$1,790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.98 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Penn State | 61c | 4,410$2,690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,690.08 | 56 | 39.3%22 W · 34 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Oregon | 68c | 4,409$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,404.63 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1bc…9dc9backed Oregon | 39c | 3,841$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,343.03 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed Oregon | 59c | 3,718$2,188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,529.74 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d38…fc8ebacked Penn State | 1c | 3,587$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Penn State | 57c | 3,234$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.42 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0432…1660backed Penn State | 30c | 3,200$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$960 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x285f…2c03backed Penn State | 35c | 3,141$1,089 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,088.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ec2…69fdbacked Penn State | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.9wins | -0.45per pick | 54cpaid | -88.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x445e…9be0backed Penn State | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.99 | 198 | 49%97 W · 101 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked Penn State | 62c | 2,600$1,612 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,612 | 69 | 47.8%33 W · 36 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d75…74a5backed Oregon | 42c | 2,364$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,364.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Penn State | 37c | 2,350$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.07 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Penn State | 61c | 2,283$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,399.64 | 492 | 53.5%263 W · 229 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Oregon | 37c | 2,226$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,400.81 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8f…a7bbbacked Penn State | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Penn State | 63c | 1,994$1,248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,248.04 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Penn State | 59c | 1,908$1,119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,118.66 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Oregon | 38c | 1,894$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,173.86 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x058b…1cd1backed Penn State | 55c | 1,813$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Oregon | 39c | 1,800$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,106.99 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e1…7edabacked Penn State | 61c | 1,785$1,094 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,094.16 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc9…4534backed Penn State | 61c | 1,741$1,062 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,062 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Penn State | 62c | 1,689$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,048.02 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Penn State | 58c | 1,560$907 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$906.52 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Penn State | 63c | 1,463$922 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$921.83 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…48a2backed Oregon | 43c | 1,441$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +131.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6227…18dabacked Oregon | 42c | 1,439$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$839.11 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Oregon | 59c | 1,408$838 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570.18 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb43…9d70backed Oregon | 40c | 1,356$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.81 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 35cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Penn State | 49c | 1,310$642 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$642.08 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +9.9wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Penn State | 61c | 1,271$777 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.93 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked Oregon | 35c | 1,259$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$818.05 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae8…a9c3backed Oregon | 43c | 1,162$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.42 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8b5…a5cabacked Penn State | 60c | 1,149$689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.4 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Penn State | 62c | 1,129$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 213 | 48.8%104 W · 109 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4417…8d57backed Oregon | 39c | 1,128$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.19 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed Oregon | 44c | 1,094$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.3 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9d…d327backed Penn State | 59c | 999.99$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$589.99 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…4173backed Penn State | 61c | 999.89$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.93 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…1feabacked Penn State | 64c | 931.25$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$596 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…be9abacked Penn State | 57c | 910.34$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515 | 58 | 56.9%33 W · 25 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed Oregon | 39c | 897.44$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$547.44 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +5.5wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8db6…da81backed Oregon | 37c | 810.81$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.81 | 28 | 67.9%19 W · 9 L | +5.3wins | +0.19per pick | 49cpaid | +85.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd0…4e15backed Penn State | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Oregon | 37c | 791.4$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$497.5 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9587…2d5fbacked Oregon | 39c | 788.15$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.77 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…efd2backed Oregon | 45c | 769.58$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.58 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.18per pick | 41cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x410b…5c3cbacked Oregon | 41c | 712.32$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.27 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…f62dbacked Oregon | 50c | 676.94$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.42 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…0f12backed Oregon | 39c | 667.79$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.35 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa315…cabbbacked Penn State | 64c | 630$403 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$403.2 | 204 | 50.5%103 W · 101 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Oregon | 61c | 596.46$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.04 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5482…b6eebacked Penn State | 9c | 582.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 81 | 4.9%4 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb45d…a406backed Penn State | 63c | 564.43$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.59 | 79 | 29.1%23 W · 56 L | -8.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5a61…1787backed Oregon | 39c | 516.77$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315.23 | 53 | 39.6%21 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Penn State | 61c | 482.16$293 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$293.47 | 276 | 48.9%135 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Penn State | 61c | 460$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.1 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781e…2484backed Oregon | 38c | 460$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.83 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +2.4wins | +0.09per pick | 23cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Oregon | 54c | 444$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.51 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…5d9ebacked Oregon | 37c | 410.81$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.81 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Oregon | 49c | 407.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.41 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Penn State | 62c | 385.26$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5311…4f97backed Penn State | 60c | 368$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x014c…f5b6backed Oregon | 39c | 358.97$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.97 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Penn State | 62c | 354.84$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 302 | 53%160 W · 142 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a3…8665backed Penn State | 60c | 348.38$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.03 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90dc…5ba6backed Oregon | 39c | 343.59$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.59 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…d4d8backed Penn State | 62c | 343.55$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f4…959cbacked Oregon | 40c | 343.16$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.16 | 62 | 50%31 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Penn State | 54c | 336.55$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.74 | 241 | 57.3%138 W · 103 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47ca…c7f5backed Oregon | 39c | 329.79$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.17 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb72b…f4e0backed Oregon | 39c | 320.51$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.51 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…7942backed Penn State | 63c | 317.46$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Penn State | 56c | 314.84$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.31 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98b…7e18backed Oregon | 48c | 300$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 134 | 32.8%44 W · 90 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98a3…d61ebacked Oregon | 39c | 300$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183 | 108 | 48.1%52 W · 56 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Penn State | 61c | 299.98$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.99 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Oregon vs. Penn Statethis page
- Spread: Penn State (-3.5)Oregon won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.