TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Nuggets vs. Thunder

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Nuggetsof Nuggets, Thunder
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,868,484
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,989,833

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,868,484 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 636 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa8e0…1dd2backed Thunder80c222,483$177,389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177,389.396344.4%28 W · 35 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6790…5e06backed Nuggets18c183,241$33,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149,793.17335.6%26 W · 47 L+5.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+9.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae36…8fb5backed Nuggets47c79,809$37,139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,670.6610357.3%59 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Thunder80c50,000$40,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,00047848.1%230 W · 248 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ae…bd0abacked Nuggets12c44,961$5,404 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39,557.23366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick20cpaid+292.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfc25…1f7fbacked Thunder78c42,426$33,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,175.2896447.8%461 W · 503 L+35.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+17.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5fb…84b5backed Thunder79c37,894$30,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30,0001782.4%14 W · 3 L+4.3wins+0.25per pick57cpaid+74.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x6094…3bd9backed Nuggets20c31,273$6,255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,018.368536.5%31 W · 54 L+8.8wins+0.10per pick26cpaid+61.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd9a0…88eebacked Thunder80c29,927$23,941 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,941.2412938%49 W · 80 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe47c…3afabacked Nuggets22c26,991$6,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,946.1523342.9%100 W · 133 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick38cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Nuggets41c24,082$9,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,319.1513248.5%64 W · 68 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x727b…d1a2backed Nuggets22c23,999$5,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,747.1128341.7%118 W · 165 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b42…ae6ebacked Thunder80c23,678$18,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,942.3813636.8%50 W · 86 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Nuggets11c18,647$2,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,512.7346426.1%121 W · 343 L+0.4wins0.00per pick26cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Nuggets27c17,749$4,722 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,026.985536.4%20 W · 35 L-3.7wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4259…936fbacked Thunder60c17,387$10,352 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,351.518333.7%28 W · 55 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-29.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Nuggets14c17,261$2,481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,780.0325536.9%94 W · 161 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Thunder78c17,175$13,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,421.513560.7%82 W · 53 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f66…8938backed Nuggets14c16,402$2,344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,057.8926431.8%84 W · 180 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Nuggets20c15,592$3,118 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,473.62540%10 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+23%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12d6…dbbcbacked Thunder80c15,000$11,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,949.8520047%94 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Nuggets20c14,853$2,971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,882.1527840.6%113 W · 165 L-22.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Nuggets22c13,707$2,988 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,719.1414434%49 W · 95 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-5.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Nuggets23c13,145$2,992 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,152.541,75240.6%712 W · 1,040 L-3.3wins0.00per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Nuggets20c13,000$2,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,40016641%68 W · 98 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-17.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Thunder80c12,000$9,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,6001,31650.5%664 W · 652 L+42.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ef5…8898backed Thunder79c11,020$8,706 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,705.83852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe3ff…805cbacked Nuggets12c10,687$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,387.4142827.3%117 W · 311 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3375…a8d8backed Nuggets13c10,046$1,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,755.162236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Thunder80c10,000$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,00059653.4%318 W · 278 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8b4…f05dbacked Thunder80c10,000$7,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,95066853.4%357 W · 311 L+22.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa2fc…33ffbacked Nuggets21c10,000$2,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,899.992100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+211.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x41b7…f6babacked Thunder79c10,000$7,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,849.9580146.4%372 W · 429 L-1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x595c…385abacked Thunder79c9,996$7,897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,896.8420%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d45…b661backed Nuggets17c9,626$1,623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,002.8913731.4%43 W · 94 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick28cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Nuggets24c9,322$2,251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,071.4636843.8%161 W · 207 L-17.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ce7…fd4abacked Nuggets28c8,007$2,239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,768.8714057.9%81 W · 59 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf9f2…5cbabacked Thunder0c8,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.43350%0 W · 335 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1208…0160backed Nuggets21c7,122$1,494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,627.6366732.4%216 W · 451 L+41.8wins+0.06per pick26cpaid-3.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Thunder80c7,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,6007953.2%42 W · 37 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf935…51abbacked Nuggets18c6,627$1,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,447.27757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick30cpaid+82.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Nuggets18c6,462$1,193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,269.373,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb22a…f94abacked Thunder79c6,033$4,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,766.051338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-10.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7678…102ebacked Nuggets21c6,011$1,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,748.691266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd616…1106backed Nuggets20c5,794$1,163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,631.531338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99cf…a86abacked Nuggets15c5,660$838 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,822.3914034.3%48 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-21.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc6ab…5eb9backed Nuggets18c5,569$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,568.76873.5%50 W · 18 L+5.9wins+0.09per pick65cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb142…cd11backed Nuggets22c5,488$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,280.634148.8%20 W · 21 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+35.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b92…046ebacked Nuggets15c5,409$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,598.7616140.4%65 W · 96 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-11%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5116…58c4backed Nuggets10c5,333$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,783.3376850.3%386 W · 382 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e7a…1eecbacked Nuggets21c5,260$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,159.7431453.5%168 W · 146 L+0.8wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfba6…375cbacked Thunder74c5,155$3,820 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,820.1129957.2%171 W · 128 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Thunder77c5,064$3,899 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,899.131,05353.5%563 W · 490 L-15.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid+2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x90ba…63f3backed Nuggets21c5,050$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,989.491,78228%499 W · 1,283 L+11.5wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Nuggets20c5,000$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,00047542.3%201 W · 274 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33c2…9818backed Nuggets21c5,000$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,949.82532%8 W · 17 L0.0wins0.00per pick32cpaid-15%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Thunder80c4,725$3,780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,78062351.4%320 W · 303 L-13.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x322d…305fbacked Nuggets20c4,666$933 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,732.881145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+47.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa27b…5d5cbacked Nuggets24c4,524$1,108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,416.0420447.1%96 W · 108 L-6.7wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aef…4e67backed Nuggets13c4,302$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,748.921040%4 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.18per pick22cpaid+112.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x11d7…52e1backed Thunder78c4,193$3,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,280.120756%116 W · 91 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Thunder79c4,000$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,16079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Nuggets21c4,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,1605843.1%25 W · 33 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10fb…c66cbacked Nuggets10c4,000$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,6009747.4%46 W · 51 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+11.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e8…c443backed Thunder75c4,000$2,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,979.994953.1%26 W · 23 L-8.4wins-0.17per pick70cpaid-25.3%equal weight37-0.11 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Thunder79c3,847$3,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,040.5873647.3%348 W · 388 L-12.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Thunder79c3,786$2,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,999.218448.9%90 W · 94 L-13.3wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-14.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1571…c4e6backed Nuggets12c3,633$453 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,179.9319419.1%37 W · 157 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-26.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2cce…6e85backed Nuggets15c3,600$524 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,075.9922039.1%86 W · 134 L+14.0wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x28da…b97dbacked Nuggets14c3,600$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,082.796230.6%19 W · 43 L+2.3wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5a24…ea91backed Thunder80c3,500$2,795 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,79540%0 W · 4 L-3.0wins-0.76per pick76cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.10 edge/pick
0x9f9a…06d0backed Nuggets18c3,388$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,777.665261.5%32 W · 20 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76c8…ba09backed Nuggets10c3,380$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,034.237929.1%23 W · 56 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa320…8232backed Nuggets20c3,280$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,623.967261.1%44 W · 28 L+8.3wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Thunder80c3,200$2,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,56045348.1%218 W · 235 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf586…f614backed Thunder76c3,197$2,417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,416.953243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.7wins-0.11per pick55cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdcc9…4534backed Thunder80c3,195$2,556 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,5568167.9%55 W · 26 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick64cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x920d…38adbacked Nuggets22c3,182$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,481.829849%48 W · 50 L+6.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+22.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Thunder80c3,118$2,484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,483.992,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x19b8…9c8ebacked Nuggets11c3,107$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,779.7638027.1%103 W · 277 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6f8b…01aabacked Nuggets14c3,035$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,618.3710530.5%32 W · 73 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+25.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c81…3b0cbacked Nuggets17c3,015$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,515.48728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick24cpaid+12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xda44…2b09backed Nuggets10c3,000$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,70010244.1%45 W · 57 L+4.8wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+27.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Thunder78c3,000$2,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,339.931,16449.6%577 W · 587 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8aa…ae12backed Nuggets18c3,000$531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,468.927829.5%23 W · 55 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb843…1b3fbacked Nuggets3c2,978$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,877.72366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.58per pick8cpaid+1,041.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc82e…9460backed Nuggets24c2,929$712 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,217.7117044.1%75 W · 95 L-0.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed0e…b305backed Nuggets7c2,860$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,659.821723.5%51 W · 166 L+9.6wins+0.04per pick19cpaid+75.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf33…261fbacked Nuggets24c2,647$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,021.1117420.1%35 W · 139 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-11.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Nuggets6c2,557$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,391.078783%26 W · 852 L-22.3wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-62%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe0f3…d82cbacked Thunder79c2,539$2,005 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.4215551%79 W · 76 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-5.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3c5b…50c9backed Nuggets21c2,500$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9757024.3%17 W · 53 L-3.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa53e…8ba5backed Nuggets20c2,500$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,0003043.3%13 W · 17 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+30.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8643…dc82backed Nuggets16c2,500$390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.995827.6%16 W · 42 L+6.0wins+0.10per pick17cpaid+92.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6cff…c3dabacked Nuggets5c2,405$123 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,282.6718518.4%34 W · 151 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b0c…cd1cbacked Nuggets22c2,318$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,808.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.78per pick22cpaid+354.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f19…b0cabacked Thunder1c2,300$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0524423.8%58 W · 186 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-56.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2bd3…2a3cbacked Nuggets6c2,217$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,076.678714.9%13 W · 74 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick16cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Nuggets27c2,175$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.7326934.9%94 W · 175 L-9.1wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa530…4280backed Nuggets14c2,105$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,816.321250%6 W · 6 L+3.8wins+0.32per pick18cpaid+191.4%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.