TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NFL · resolved market

Broncos vs. Chargers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Chargersof Broncos, Chargers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,993,928
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,107,811

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,993,928 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 506 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Broncos43c773,185$335,861 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335,861.458344.6%37 W · 46 L-3.6wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Chargers50c292,443$145,891 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146,551.4822950.2%115 W · 114 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Chargers57c167,696$95,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72,630.1347738.6%184 W · 293 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ec2…69fdbacked Chargers57c150,004$85,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,001.7711755.6%65 W · 52 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Broncos56c94,000$53,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,023.2422548.4%109 W · 116 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9267…0f9abacked Chargers57c90,000$51,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,899.9524652%128 W · 118 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7c3…a26cbacked Broncos44c82,908$36,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,221.361643.8%7 W · 9 L-2.2wins-0.14per pick58cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa987…141dbacked Chargers56c68,379$38,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,088.5710061%61 W · 39 L+7.3wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Broncos42c60,000$25,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,199.9617454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7fb7…e33dbacked Broncos42c47,840$19,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,983.6141851.9%217 W · 201 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Broncos43c43,960$18,855 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,855.3410566.7%70 W · 35 L+12.6wins+0.12per pick55cpaid+19.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Broncos42c40,669$17,081 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,081.0731240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x090a…01b4backed Chargers58c40,000$23,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,799.9516836.9%62 W · 106 L-5.3wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb1a2…372abacked Chargers55c39,088$21,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,769.063961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x68df…4815backed Chargers57c35,860$20,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,359.818156.9%103 W · 78 L+11.8wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Chargers57c35,000$19,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,05010639.6%42 W · 64 L-4.2wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Chargers62c32,815$20,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,365.214250%21 W · 21 L-5.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2d0f…4faabacked Chargers56c30,350$17,077 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,272.6514351%73 W · 70 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a1e…86d3backed Chargers58c29,143$16,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,24013450%67 W · 67 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Chargers56c27,965$15,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,294.430043.7%131 W · 169 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Broncos42c27,682$11,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,626.5212744.9%57 W · 70 L-8.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbde5…9c38backed Chargers57c20,500$11,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,898.7330743.6%134 W · 173 L-1.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Chargers56c20,100$11,356 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,744.3968446.1%315 W · 369 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb230…4193backed Chargers56c20,000$11,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,8006645.5%30 W · 36 L-4.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-6.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Chargers63c20,000$12,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,40010333%34 W · 69 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-18.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Chargers57c20,000$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,599.982441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Broncos65c19,869$12,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,914.689445.7%43 W · 51 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4b1…a75ebacked Broncos43c19,061$8,233 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,232.965527.3%15 W · 40 L-6.2wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-38.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9a75…4347backed Broncos45c18,613$8,376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,375.9450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f91…907fbacked Chargers58c18,060$10,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,522.2612843.8%56 W · 72 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Broncos44c17,316$7,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,639.0260049.3%296 W · 304 L+21.0wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Chargers57c15,000$8,550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,4507042.9%30 W · 40 L+3.1wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x00ff…f7adbacked Broncos42c12,982$5,453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,452.593256.3%18 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Chargers41c12,482$5,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,350.6764747.3%306 W · 341 L+42.5wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+56.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xec92…98f5backed Chargers58c10,500$6,045 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,45514757.1%84 W · 63 L-3.3wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4992…6f5cbacked Chargers63c10,226$6,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,787.951136.4%4 W · 7 L-2.5wins-0.22per pick59cpaid-45%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Chargers56c10,000$5,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,40083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Chargers57c10,000$5,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,3508959.6%53 W · 36 L+7.4wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+20.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x27f2…702cbacked Chargers59c8,823$5,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,623.259359.1%55 W · 38 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4e25…d7a7backed Chargers50c8,816$4,378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,438.1113430.6%41 W · 93 L-12.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-39%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x4d75…74a5backed Broncos66c7,800$5,148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1481040%4 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-1.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x578d…fbb3backed Broncos45c7,774$3,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,461.561758.8%10 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick56cpaid-6.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Chargers56c7,457$4,176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,281.131848.1%153 W · 165 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f2…5495backed Chargers62c7,403$4,590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,813.232744.4%12 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Broncos42c7,118$2,990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,989.5622349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc996…bb65backed Broncos41c6,615$2,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,713.3241947.3%198 W · 221 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbbdc…9da2backed Chargers50c6,103$3,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,028.694533.3%15 W · 30 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-35.2%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked Chargers49c6,073$2,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,127.051947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+15.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Chargers62c5,953$3,691 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,262.096544.6%29 W · 36 L-2.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x88a2…d974backed Broncos42c5,952$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50013142%55 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Chargers66c5,182$3,445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,737.6429356%164 W · 129 L+14.0wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb45d…a406backed Chargers53c5,000$2,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,330.0812138.8%47 W · 74 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12d6…f2a8backed Chargers57c5,000$2,830 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1701931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed Chargers58c5,000$2,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,1002025%5 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-40.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x14b8…1235backed Chargers63c4,762$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.9560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-14.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Broncos42c4,760$1,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,99911649.1%57 W · 59 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Chargers57c4,563$2,606 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,957.412100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Chargers58c4,444$2,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,866.4834349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Chargers57c4,367$2,489 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,87831854.7%174 W · 144 L+16.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ef2…f473backed Chargers37c4,238$1,572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,665.884628.3%13 W · 33 L-3.6wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-36%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x328e…dc42backed Broncos60c4,203$2,526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,526.144436.4%16 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Chargers49c4,144$2,022 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,122.1319235.4%68 W · 124 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Chargers56c4,017$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,767.4837350.9%190 W · 183 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+6.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x445e…9be0backed Chargers57c4,000$2,267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,733.3526650.8%135 W · 131 L+1.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b51…e165backed Chargers59c4,000$2,355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,64530446.7%142 W · 162 L-6.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2699…29f6backed Chargers56c4,000$2,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,7603056.7%17 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Chargers51c3,827$1,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,878.4827348.7%133 W · 140 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-7.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…ff0ebacked Chargers63c3,633$2,289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,344.335766.7%38 W · 19 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chargers50c3,631$1,816 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,814.5450242.4%213 W · 289 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Broncos51c3,551$1,819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,819.3731056.8%176 W · 134 L+16.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fc8…39efbacked Chargers57c3,500$1,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50514248.6%69 W · 73 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf05…70dabacked Chargers58c3,448$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.2814763.9%94 W · 53 L+12.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+14.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe216…7448backed Chargers57c3,405$1,941 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,464.2620039.5%79 W · 121 L-0.5wins0.00per pick40cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Chargers57c3,278$1,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,409.545560%33 W · 22 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x66c5…98ecbacked Chargers59c3,100$1,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,271250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7245…f1c3backed Chargers59c3,100$1,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2711650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56bb…8e6bbacked Chargers58c3,008$1,745 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,263.331850%9 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdaef…54e9backed Chargers58c3,000$1,740 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2603948.7%19 W · 20 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+2.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Chargers57c3,000$1,725 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,27520646.1%95 W · 111 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c0…c012backed Broncos42c3,000$1,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,26020%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fe6…ab9dbacked Chargers49c2,986$1,464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,522.3120634.5%71 W · 135 L-0.2wins0.00per pick35cpaid-24.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Broncos42c2,912$1,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,213.4483447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae0f…f647backed Chargers26c2,861$736 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,124.9311252.7%59 W · 53 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+18.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Chargers58c2,848$1,660 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.818648.8%42 W · 44 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-11.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe90e…107abacked Broncos53c2,681$1,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,418.761464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Chargers57c2,600$1,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,11811750.4%59 W · 58 L+7.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+9.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Broncos42c2,500$1,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,05018435.9%66 W · 118 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x052c…404ebacked Chargers58c2,500$1,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0502050%10 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3134…1b18backed Broncos42c2,408$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0009152.7%48 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7aa3…5154backed Chargers33c2,130$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,430.32133.3%7 W · 14 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-27%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x791c…7910backed Broncos40c2,127$856 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$855.661546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Chargers28c2,105$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,508.8614147.5%67 W · 74 L+7.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid-5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9733…f034backed Chargers35c2,000$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,30017144.4%76 W · 95 L-4.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6dd3…f7d3backed Chargers58c2,000$1,153 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8471643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+23.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34a…98b8backed Broncos42c2,000$840 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$840250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b4…e064backed Chargers62c1,966$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$747.133256.3%18 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb27f…8908backed Chargers58c1,960$1,137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$823.25851.7%30 W · 28 L+4.7wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+5.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Chargers56c1,939$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$853.2224551%125 W · 120 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf70c…72c1backed Chargers35c1,913$663 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.034415.9%7 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-46.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd480…97edbacked Chargers58c1,897$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$796.551030%3 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-41.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.