NFL · resolved market
Spread: LAC (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x52d8fc10214156401dc4a3b0ea7084ede569336a9f47715011d62826e7f02821
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- DENof LAC, DEN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,526
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,504
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,526 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked DEN | 57c | 1,514$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.03 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked LAC | 65c | 888.6$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.5 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked LAC | 41c | 610.17$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.17 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c95…4d15backed DEN | 59c | 610.17$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.17 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed DEN | 35c | 587.82$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 276 | 33.3%92 W · 184 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed DEN | 36c | 528.6$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340.58 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed DEN | 57c | 500.99$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.43 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…0ababacked LAC | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed LAC | 43c | 400$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -8.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked DEN | 57c | 259.3$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.5 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3832…35e1backed DEN | 59c | 254.41$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.41 | 164 | 51.2%84 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked LAC | 42c | 238.1$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3613…79e1backed LAC | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 194 | 36.6%71 W · 123 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed LAC | 42c | 188$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 134 | 50%67 W · 67 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68df…4815backed LAC | 41c | 162.89$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 181 | 56.9%103 W · 78 L | +11.8wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb581…fa4ebacked LAC | 44c | 136.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed LAC | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xecf5…6a01backed LAC | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe0aa…bac3backed LAC | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked LAC | 45c | 90.43$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.69 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed DEN | 55c | 90.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked DEN | 58c | 90$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked LAC | 43c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7dce…38ecbacked LAC | 44c | 75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b03…ab0cbacked LAC | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -3.4wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x292a…66c1backed LAC | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: LAC (-3.5)this page
- Broncos vs. ChargersChargers won
- Spread: LAC (-1.5)LAC won
- Spread: LAC (-7.5)DEN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.