NFL · resolved market
Spread: LAC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x056cb7ea30b64cafd2159e1d4022d1e8691cc2597fe6a61a6fcaa21595edd32b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- LACof LAC, DEN
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,788
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,149
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,788 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked DEN | 45c | 32,532$14,605 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,605.02 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked LAC | 55c | 20,169$11,091 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,077.52 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed LAC | 55c | 7,000$3,850 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,150 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…8a6ebacked LAC | 56c | 3,575$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575 | 96 | 57.3%55 W · 41 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked LAC | 55c | 2,000$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$900 | 266 | 48.9%130 W · 136 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed DEN | 44c | 1,159$514 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$513.89 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd62b…86d0backed LAC | 69c | 619.78$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.79 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1895…efd2backed DEN | 45c | 304.48$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.84 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -5.1wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x386d…9bb6backed LAC | 55c | 222$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.9 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e3…68b9backed LAC | 56c | 180$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked LAC | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19e8…ad4bbacked LAC | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -4.2wins | -0.30per pick | 51cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked LAC | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.91 | 170 | 47.1%80 W · 90 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…8212backed LAC | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…9903backed LAC | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 87 | 60.9%53 W · 34 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed DEN | 35c | 76.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.92 | 419 | 47.3%198 W · 221 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked LAC | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bfd…3462backed DEN | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb272…2febbacked LAC | 56c | 32.14$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed DEN | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4884…9b0abacked LAC | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: LAC (-1.5)this page
- Broncos vs. ChargersChargers won
- Spread: LAC (-3.5)DEN won
- Spread: LAC (-7.5)DEN won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.