Weather · resolved market
Will Palisades wildfire spread to Malibu by Sunday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe888bcf29f885cc0e7b6b984211741af53ecbc2c336678e19cbcacf42fc10371
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $115,111
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $128,571
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $115,111 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 129 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd1cb…3accbacked Yes | 51c | 10,364$5,330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,329.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2227…b572backed No | 59c | 8,383$4,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,396.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4fea…d383backed Yes | 0c | 8,004$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed No | 74c | 4,705$3,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed No | 69c | 4,404$3,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,379.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…bcc9backed No | 69c | 3,500$2,398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,101.55 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 32c | 2,295$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.38 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed No | 62c | 2,200$1,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$838 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…01d0backed No | 80c | 1,881$1,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.03 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +71.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2b09backed Yes | 12c | 1,715$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.92 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bbadbacked No | 37c | 1,600$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.99 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +179.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked No | 55c | 1,528$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$692.23 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3b…c3e2backed Yes | 45c | 1,360$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.94 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5335…0b0fbacked Yes | 35c | 1,295$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9199…dd2dbacked Yes | 29c | 1,200$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22db…190fbacked No | 60c | 1,200$721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.39 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…1b64backed Yes | 5c | 1,116$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 45c | 1,108$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x24c5…923dbacked Yes | 36c | 927.78$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$334 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 18cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae61…4e32backed Yes | 12c | 831.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.83 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed No | 66c | 801.88$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$272.64 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f1…c4bdbacked No | 67c | 800$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 39c | 772.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.15 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes | 33c | 764.49$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.99 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 10c | 738.11$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.44 | 382 | 43.2%165 W · 217 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf330…f779backed Yes | 27c | 658.69$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…01cebacked Yes | 33c | 638.88$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.43 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x532b…dd2dbacked Yes | 24c | 625$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…49acbacked Yes | 36c | 552.05$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed No | 57c | 534.47$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.82 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 17c | 525.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.33 | 250 | 6%15 W · 235 L | -12.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -67%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…ca61backed Yes | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d8…8d55backed Yes | 36c | 500$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1545…e2b2backed No | 71c | 500$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 34c | 492.01$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.28 | 72 | 20.8%15 W · 57 L | -4.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b4…770dbacked No | 71c | 465.8$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.22 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -57.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757a…0e81backed Yes | 43c | 455.38$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a14…3c37backed Yes | 13c | 441$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfa…01cbbacked No | 69c | 434.23$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.23 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b36…52a2backed Yes | 34c | 434.07$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1457…637dbacked No | 62c | 399.99$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 45c | 393.91$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.6 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 66c | 333.22$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.29 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +3.4wins | +0.13per pick | 39cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda7a…ccc6backed Yes | 11c | 329.18$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69bc…577dbacked No | 62c | 324.99$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.99 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 55c | 311.93$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.52 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd398…46d7backed No | 53c | 300$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +434.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…76f6backed No | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ed…47d8backed No | 45c | 299.57$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.25 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2400…f2b7backed Yes | 38c | 286.67$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed Yes | 50c | 270$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x06dc…af59backed No | 68c | 264.44$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.4 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 64cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 31c | 259.01$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Yes | 30c | 250$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…3ddabacked No | 76c | 250$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…387abacked No | 51c | 226.88$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33cc…a0b6backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeda9…82d2backed Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a50…addcbacked Yes | 42c | 190.01$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.16 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 60c | 188.46$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.54 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 32c | 177.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.19 | 32 | 59.4%19 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 64cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef0…4cdcbacked Yes | 26c | 175.79$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…6bf8backed Yes | 21c | 165.11$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 163.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.49 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dba…e698backed Yes | 19c | 160.33$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb59…0a22backed No | 63c | 160.33$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.61 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0665…4c8fbacked Yes | 34c | 148.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdea6…1550backed Yes | 49c | 133$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 19c | 127.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 57 | 35.1%20 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 42c | 124$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.36 | 401 | 62.6%251 W · 150 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e30…1e50backed Yes | 43c | 123$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.89 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -5.1wins | -0.46per pick | 64cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x7452…b6a6backed Yes | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a7…1addbacked Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc558…e8ccbacked No | 68c | 115.34$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce2…7fa8backed Yes | 40c | 114.03$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.69 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -69.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c6…8c66backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d4…e736backed Yes | 10c | 110$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 17c | 102.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb22…7ef9backed Yes | 54c | 102.35$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6837…faccbacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaaec…8dc8backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 493 | 38.9%192 W · 301 L | +49.3wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x12e5…e657backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ce0…b464backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef17…6583backed No | 67c | 89.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0943…4a2fbacked Yes | 39c | 85.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aca…c78bbacked Yes | 13c | 85.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes | 28c | 83.38$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.08 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23cf…3349backed No | 70c | 81.67$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdcc1…954ebacked Yes | 67c | 80$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0647…8f61backed Yes | 28c | 79.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.33 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf20…c563backed Yes | 36c | 79.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 19c | 75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…40bfbacked Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac9…f647backed Yes | 36c | 63.89$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Yes | 44c | 62.77$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…cbbcbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf40a…8114backed Yes | 34c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c5…d7c5backed No | 77c | 59.06$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa537…acd3backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.