NFL · resolved market
Spread: Steelers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4e1a48aa8b1ab51a06fc7f8f85a66ee5ff70e9cd019c1f63a7bab6e4994d57f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Seahawksof Steelers, Seahawks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,224
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,225
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,224 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Seahawks | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 831 | 47.8%397 W · 434 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Steelers | 50c | 8,766$4,381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,381.23 | 446 | 52.9%236 W · 210 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Seahawks | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,399.99 | 206 | 61.2%126 W · 80 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed Steelers | 48c | 3,624$1,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,739.62 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Steelers | 50c | 1,593$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Steelers | 48c | 648.69$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.61 | 1,065 | 51.3%546 W · 519 L | +25.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44a0…c3b9backed Seahawks | 50c | 600$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$297.5 | 75 | 44%33 W · 42 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a33…2534backed Steelers | 50c | 600$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 74 | 36.5%27 W · 47 L | -7.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Steelers | 46c | 522.12$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.18 | 418 | 51.9%217 W · 201 L | +13.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe87a…6d01backed Steelers | 51c | 485.57$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.64 | 64 | 28.1%18 W · 46 L | -12.6wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8b02…f3d9backed Seahawks | 54c | 300$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138 | 211 | 51.2%108 W · 103 L | +12.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Seahawks | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 104 | 53.8%56 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef54…c997backed Seahawks | 53c | 289.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.3 | 105 | 48.6%51 W · 54 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Steelers | 49c | 250$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.5 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…2a13backed Seahawks | 54c | 240.74$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.74 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6edc…18cebacked Steelers | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 175 | 48%84 W · 91 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb406…4964backed Steelers | 48c | 205.15$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.47 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef4…6c83backed Seahawks | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 93 | 58.1%54 W · 39 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Seahawks | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -7.4wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x60e6…9e8abacked Seahawks | 49c | 200$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea64…f2a2backed Steelers | 46c | 162.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 245 | 51%125 W · 120 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead9…cc72backed Seahawks | 54c | 138.89$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.89 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Seahawks | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf645…0d16backed Steelers | 50c | 80.46$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec4…defabacked Steelers | 46c | 79.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.8 | 205 | 42%86 W · 119 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Steelers | 47c | 65.96$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 127 | 55.1%70 W · 57 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Steelers | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 594 | 53.7%319 W · 275 L | +24.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5696…b3aabacked Steelers | 48c | 58.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Steelers | 49c | 49.02$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 611 | 48.6%297 W · 314 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Seahawks | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.38per pick | 22cpaid | +207.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked Steelers | 48c | 41.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Steelers | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 172 | 55.2%95 W · 77 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Steelers | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…b6b9backed Seahawks | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Steelers | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Steelers (-3.5)this page
- Seahawks vs. SteelersSeahawks won
- Seahawks vs. Steelers: O/U 40.5Over won
- Spread: Steelers (-1.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Steelers (-2.5)Seahawks won
- Spread: Steelers (-4.5)Seahawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.