College Football · resolved market
UCF vs. Kansas State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe00b8cd962038ff422aa9dc0948283959850ffc264c23e67a96124d1a86b2d3a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas Stateof UCF, Kansas State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $99,716
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $108,939
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $99,716 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Kansas State | 67c | 31,828$21,246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,581.31 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked UCF | 33c | 18,888$6,233 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,233.04 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed UCF | 34c | 17,680$5,958 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,958.47 | 342 | 50.3%172 W · 170 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked UCF | 34c | 17,666$6,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,045.38 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x309f…9282backed Kansas State | 65c | 8,447$5,517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,929.61 | 55 | 65.5%36 W · 19 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Kansas State | 65c | 7,339$4,770 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,568.68 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Kansas State | 73c | 6,478$4,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.41 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed UCF | 13c | 5,636$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.65 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f8b…01aabacked UCF | 35c | 4,000$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 83 | 31.3%26 W · 57 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed UCF | 5c | 3,570$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.34 | 648 | 41.2%267 W · 381 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Kansas State | 66c | 3,000$1,980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Kansas State | 66c | 2,714$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.84 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f91…907fbacked UCF | 34c | 2,676$910 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$909.7 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe216…7448backed UCF | 39c | 2,537$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.5 | 86 | 27.9%24 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked UCF | 9c | 2,291$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 405 | 41.2%167 W · 238 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Kansas State | 65c | 2,101$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$734.53 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas State | 67c | 1,810$1,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.43 | 628 | 43.6%274 W · 354 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…7d00backed UCF | 19c | 1,334$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.99 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Kansas State | 67c | 1,246$836 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.08 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe53f…62d7backed UCF | 37c | 934.08$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.2 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc684…2228backed UCF | 10c | 687.13$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 267 | 50.9%136 W · 131 L | +21.7wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Kansas State | 65c | 579.84$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.27 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Kansas State | 66c | 497.95$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.91 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed UCF | 26c | 334.08$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.86 | 632 | 43.7%276 W · 356 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +138.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed UCF | 5c | 259$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 216 | 44.9%97 W · 119 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kansas State | 75c | 157$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2fdbbacked UCF | 36c | 138.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b0b…f9d6backed UCF | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked UCF | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9a…4e25backed UCF | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked UCF | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Kansas State | 69c | 72.46$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…ec0dbacked UCF | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 89 | 42.7%38 W · 51 L | -5.9wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked UCF | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed12…86f8backed UCF | 35c | 42.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa982…6c34backed UCF | 37c | 37.84$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -47.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59e5…0146backed Kansas State | 65c | 36.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.92 | 13 | 84.6%11 W · 2 L | +2.6wins | +0.20per pick | 65cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb579…f458backed UCF | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 126 | 41.3%52 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7869…61d8backed Kansas State | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8495…df87backed Kansas State | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfca…68fcbacked Kansas State | 62c | 18.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 471 | 31.4%148 W · 323 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UCF vs. Kansas Statethis page
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Spread: Kansas State (-6.5)Kansas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.