College Football · resolved market
Spread: Kansas State (-6.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb01f3e9195f8c851509ca8f840f858112fc7264165d0c6535b9fa304314fe7f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kansas Stateof Kansas State, UCF
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,373
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,604
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,373 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed UCF | 53c | 4,970$2,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633.93 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Kansas State | 47c | 4,875$2,286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,588.34 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Kansas State | 47c | 2,022$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.29 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Kansas State | 46c | 1,356$617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$738.84 | 134 | 52.2%70 W · 64 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed UCF | 53c | 1,250$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.5 | 399 | 54.1%216 W · 183 L | +16.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2359…f72bbacked UCF | 56c | 783.71$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.88 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce6d…28b5backed UCF | 52c | 505$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.9 | 109 | 44%48 W · 61 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed UCF | 56c | 310$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.6 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Kansas State | 47c | 300$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.8 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Kansas State | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4f…6dddbacked Kansas State | 47c | 225.43$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.48 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed UCF | 53c | 128.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa774…005fbacked UCF | 57c | 114.04$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65 | 31 | 35.5%11 W · 20 L | -6.1wins | -0.20per pick | 55cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked UCF | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Kansas State | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.33 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc676…f35cbacked UCF | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4055…8449backed UCF | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Kansas State (-6.5)this page
- O/U 49.5Over won
- UCF vs. Kansas StateKansas State won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.