Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3ff2ef28a257774fcd3260a88f951ffd70a91a1367a4dbe36fb95d1f6f350a38
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $119,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $120,646
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $119,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 132 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 51c | 8,952$4,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,376.53 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa638…1d87backed Yes | 28c | 5,002$1,403 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,599.03 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 62c | 3,658$2,258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,399.97 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed No | 70c | 3,576$2,490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,489.66 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 40c | 3,485$1,390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,095.64 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 21c | 3,038$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,390.53 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b9…0a94backed No | 75c | 2,399$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 70cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed Yes | 47c | 2,211$1,032 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,178.69 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebf6…a960backed No | 76c | 1,914$1,455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,455.46 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01ba…929fbacked No | 75c | 1,848$1,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,378.62 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 72c | 1,771$1,274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,274.06 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0562…9d66backed Yes | 33c | 1,720$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.5 | 70 | 14.3%10 W · 60 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…a834backed No | 62c | 1,681$1,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,049.02 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 23c | 1,667$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,291 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed No | 31c | 1,663$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.19 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d55…cd90backed Yes | 61c | 1,638$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.52 | 50 | 20%10 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 49c | 1,521$744 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.41 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed No | 28c | 1,445$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.15 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 45c | 1,257$569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$688.47 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 1,157$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.37 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 56c | 1,149$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.88 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 38c | 1,118$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.76 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 64c | 1,095$703 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$391.02 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…484fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,004$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4685…4de3backed Yes | 9c | 1,000$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$910 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 3cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8c4…848dbacked No | 47c | 986.22$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$467.93 | 609 | 7.7%47 W · 562 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 30c | 910.77$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640.82 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No | 69c | 905.85$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.54 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes | 45c | 894$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.44 | 155 | 20%31 W · 124 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 28c | 849.95$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.35 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d7…73b5backed No | 64c | 714.56$455 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$455.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 43c | 714.03$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.2 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 16c | 710.11$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$593.9 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x969a…e4c5backed No | 22c | 700$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.8 | 113 | 10.6%12 W · 101 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -56%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 21c | 675.23$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.43 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed No | 58c | 654.89$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.76 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 39c | 654.23$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.02 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 23c | 637.61$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.27 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…7430backed Yes | 68c | 611.16$416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 28c | 580.33$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.72 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 42c | 570.83$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.83 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 29c | 517.01$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.11 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 7c | 500$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…563bbacked Yes | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 20c | 499.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.76 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f6…6abdbacked Yes | 68c | 473.85$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.8 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x986a…4e19backed No | 42c | 471.09$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 30c | 463.25$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$325.38 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 22c | 451.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.52 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 47c | 428.79$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.72 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf15a…6df2backed No | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 90 | 13.3%12 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 23c | 426.49$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.2 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 19c | 418.3$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.35 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 27c | 400$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 53c | 395.46$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.97 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 43c | 345.03$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.59 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2557…d991backed Yes | 53c | 324.67$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed No | 53c | 306.84$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.56 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f67…55bfbacked Yes | 72c | 286.39$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.41 | 37 | 54.1%20 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21cf…c7ecbacked Yes | 21c | 253$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 14c | 248.3$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.3 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 40c | 233.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394b…0cecbacked Yes | 36c | 222.9$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.99 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…309ebacked No | 40c | 221.06$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes | 52c | 220$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.6 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 31c | 216.25$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.25 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed No | 46c | 216.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf445…8184backed No | 68c | 210.56$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…293fbacked Yes | 36c | 203.69$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.36 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 64c | 200.02$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…d452backed No | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 7cpaid | +2,400%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 15c | 200$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 31c | 195$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.31 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…cb00backed Yes | 19c | 190$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +417.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 13c | 184.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.79 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…001fbacked Yes | 32c | 175$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 25c | 174.03$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.28 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 19c | 170$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.8 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 162.11$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.37 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 69c | 162.04$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.27 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 63c | 159.13$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.55 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…dea8backed Yes | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed No | 31c | 148.24$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.48 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 61c | 139.85$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.85 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 137$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.81 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…dc2abacked No | 40c | 130.65$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes | 80c | 125$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9419…4201backed No | 65c | 120.65$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 21c | 120$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4c…3d9fbacked No | 43c | 115.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ca…1552backed No | 39c | 114.63$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 30c | 113.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.48 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Yes | 29c | 104.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.11 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…b1fabacked Yes | 20c | 103.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.88 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadbf…c901backed Yes | 29c | 103.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.02 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9007…cf89backed Yes | 39c | 102.27$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.27 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 149 | 23.5%35 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.