Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x73d0d4511005bdca479e8de33dc0fa59d2cbeaddf3f6a144c0e0779422a8eee9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $92,764
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,101
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $92,764 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,235$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.06 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 7,830$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0ce…5839backed Yes | 1c | 3,659$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.82 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 9c | 2,195$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.93 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 19c | 2,061$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.7 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 3c | 2,048$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.22 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 2c | 1,972$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.52 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,855$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 2c | 1,665$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.88 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,616$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.24 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +101.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 2c | 1,500$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 1c | 1,468$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,416$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.32 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 76c | 1,410$1,076 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.77 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58f4…12a9backed Yes | 1c | 1,369$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…293fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,320$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 10c | 1,206$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.98 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked Yes | 2c | 1,172$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3839…5f3ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 14c | 1,019$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.09 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 21c | 987.17$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.83 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 7c | 982.51$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6277…d68abacked Yes | 21c | 944.08$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 24c | 610.99$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.25 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 23c | 608.7$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 5c | 603.22$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.9 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 20c | 502.48$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.47 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 4c | 502.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 22c | 500$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…484fbacked Yes | 19c | 497.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.49 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 23c | 480$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.7 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 22c | 450$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6de2…c71fbacked Yes | 26c | 345.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.88 | 94 | 11.7%11 W · 83 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 9c | 280$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 22c | 249.41$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 28c | 245.37$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.45 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…ead6backed Yes | 25c | 240.66$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.39 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a12…c455backed Yes | 25c | 240$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 48 | 27.1%13 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bce…c476backed Yes | 25c | 228.23$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.06 | 78 | 23.1%18 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 23c | 223.35$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.46 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 131 | 26.7%35 W · 96 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 13c | 169$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 25c | 165.16$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.85 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd466…6ce6backed Yes | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 66 | 15.2%10 W · 56 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 26c | 140.38$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e7…2ab2backed Yes | 8c | 134$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x392a…6bbabacked Yes | 23c | 130.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 93 | 24.7%23 W · 70 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19af…dd83backed Yes | 27c | 110.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 63 | 20.6%13 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…bd2cbacked Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 76c | 92.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87c1…ffcebacked Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe39f…21d7backed Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0835…4c91backed No | 74c | 57.04$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed No | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…7cb9backed Yes | 25c | 48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 27c | 45.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dad…9c60backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 77c | 15.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.