Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 255–269 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b2194739351c7e48e4bb83f3c5b4498604533d8fd1190be82ba5909dce0f9ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 6,200$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.6 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,998$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.92 | 68 | 19.1%13 W · 55 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 11c | 1,732$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefda…8dfbbacked Yes | 11c | 1,641$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.83 | 171 | 5.3%9 W · 162 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…484fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,402$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 10c | 1,081$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.42 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 10c | 991.59$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 6c | 909.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.51 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 8c | 817.31$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 6c | 800.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 2c | 675.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 2c | 649.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 69c | 629.99$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.3 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 9c | 623.04$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.63 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 7c | 610.83$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.42 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 37c | 605.97$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.95 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d49…9601backed Yes | 39c | 580$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.88 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 5c | 534.88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 10c | 512.23$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 7c | 500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 28c | 480.09$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.29 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7dd…c5b7backed Yes | 25c | 437.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.29 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 25cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc933…8527backed Yes | 12c | 422.63$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.93 | 159 | 21.4%34 W · 125 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 5c | 400$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 24c | 361.02$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf95b…1692backed Yes | 12c | 250$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.17per pick | 29cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x85b9…906dbacked Yes | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 147 | 15%22 W · 125 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x248e…7b12backed Yes | 13c | 196.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 207 | 17.4%36 W · 171 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 14c | 185.69$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 28cpaid | +60.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 9c | 181$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…5e50backed Yes | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 13c | 140.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 30c | 135.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d07…293fbacked Yes | 16c | 123.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4515…e245backed Yes | 18c | 116.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked Yes | 10c | 116$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 27c | 94.03$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 24c | 91.88$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8981…ce82backed No | 67c | 91$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.82 | 181 | 63%114 W · 67 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x394b…0cecbacked Yes | 35c | 57.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed No | 63c | 56.38$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…ead6backed Yes | 29c | 52.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd4…925cbacked Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06bc…2887backed Yes | 36c | 44.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.09 | 67 | 14.9%10 W · 57 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 10cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6947…001fbacked Yes | 43c | 29.92$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.