Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x255d4257747ea71ea50dfce7d66d85898790229bda4265c00d94b572d5d2bb47
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,314
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,467
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,314 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes | 2c | 11,298$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.95 | 820 | 6.6%54 W · 766 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 5c | 2,916$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.94 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69fc…3f73backed Yes | 46c | 2,211$1,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,012.7 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +5.5wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x474c…37d3backed Yes | 13c | 2,110$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.87 | 410 | 17.8%73 W · 337 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f33…0479backed Yes | 25c | 1,700$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 19c | 1,612$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.2 | 88 | 22.7%20 W · 68 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…4d45backed Yes | 18c | 1,600$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 76 | 26.3%20 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 23c | 1,520$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.57 | 124 | 11.3%14 W · 110 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 19c | 1,493$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.5 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 20c | 1,385$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$283.01 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6779…0400backed No | 76c | 1,080$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.62 | 94 | 7.4%7 W · 87 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57f8…330abacked Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 19c | 957.43$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.85 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 48c | 951.62$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.24 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4081…cfb0backed Yes | 7c | 699.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 134 | 7.5%10 W · 124 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +27%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 685.7$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.72 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 11c | 648.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed Yes | 33c | 636.57$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.3 | 142 | 18.3%26 W · 116 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x430e…ed6dbacked No | 77c | 629.99$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 209 | 73.2%153 W · 56 L | +16.3wins | +0.08per pick | 65cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2557…d991backed Yes | 42c | 628.76$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.95 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afd…3028backed No | 60c | 615.67$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.95 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 13c | 585.37$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.71 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes | 26c | 544.02$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.15 | 504 | 5.2%26 W · 478 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 3cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 25c | 536$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.44 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6f…7e67backed No | 67c | 506.48$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.05 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 74cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 25c | 500.19$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.71 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 113 | 19.5%22 W · 91 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed No | 77c | 475.62$365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.18 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -12.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2c06…db24backed Yes | 56c | 461.49$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.34 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 20c | 415.92$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.17 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d6…7430backed Yes | 48c | 401.04$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x060a…563bbacked Yes | 35c | 400$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +169.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 362$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.69 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 23c | 359.97$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.99 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 22c | 346.48$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 27c | 284.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.98 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4515…e245backed Yes | 32c | 282.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c09…1ba5backed Yes | 40c | 262.14$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.47 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 21c | 259.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 827 | 14.9%123 W · 704 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb976…484fbacked Yes | 8c | 227$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed No | 77c | 220$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.76 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 31c | 200$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 35c | 200$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0d…c1babacked Yes | 26c | 195.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.45 | 246 | 18.7%46 W · 200 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed Yes | 28c | 188.05$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 56 | 25%14 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x899d…4adcbacked Yes | 26c | 187.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.75 | 44 | 11.4%5 W · 39 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 26c | 173.39$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.25 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a54…7663backed Yes | 22c | 157.6$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.35 | 109 | 23.9%26 W · 83 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51da…1076backed Yes | 36c | 150.97$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd6a…611abacked Yes | 20c | 149.88$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes | 25c | 146.32$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.58 | 138 | 18.8%26 W · 112 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…c8f5backed Yes | 30c | 131.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 21cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70ff…7c2fbacked Yes | 20c | 131.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 94 | 17%16 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ad…92abbacked No | 62c | 129.04$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.59 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 22c | 125.63$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5638…5e50backed Yes | 42c | 120.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 41 | 17.1%7 W · 34 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd120…5ae5backed Yes | 36c | 120$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 61 | 9.8%6 W · 55 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 11c | 110.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b0…69e9backed Yes | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 135 | 19.3%26 W · 109 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x385a…08d1backed Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 35 | 17.1%6 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5d…6be6backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd57…6c5abacked Yes | 37c | 80.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…02c6backed Yes | 18c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 74 | 29.7%22 W · 52 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f6e…1571backed Yes | 42c | 79.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.28 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2c…651dbacked No | 70c | 78.14$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadbf…c901backed Yes | 47c | 63.83$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdd…1fedbacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 62 | 8.1%5 W · 57 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 22c | 59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…66b2backed Yes | 26c | 56.89$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 77 | 24.7%19 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd242…ba4ebacked Yes | 22c | 56$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf950…81d1backed Yes | 36c | 50.66$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 38cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 572 | 22%126 W · 446 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9936…dea8backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37c2…e932backed Yes | 44c | 49.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 49c | 48.2$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…b1fabacked Yes | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51a5…7151backed Yes | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x036e…8751backed Yes | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8346…df00backed No | 59c | 43.19$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689d…f3c1backed Yes | 35c | 42.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8512…f69fbacked No | 62c | 40.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…0160backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 39.4%28 W · 43 L | +9.0wins | +0.13per pick | 27cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf6d7…73b5backed Yes | 48c | 39.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…6a84backed Yes | 50c | 34.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f39…a78cbacked Yes | 35c | 33.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 92 | 25%23 W · 69 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e5…f156backed Yes | 54c | 29.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa719…7832backed Yes | 43c | 28.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21cf…c7ecbacked Yes | 43c | 27.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7e…5eaabacked Yes | 43c | 24.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 74c | 20.01$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.17 | 235 | 41.3%97 W · 138 L | -29.2wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.