Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbee2790348551144b1ace1471ce680ab03b77d217714b55d67819639d85965ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,044
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,044 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe842…27d6backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 532 | 5.3%28 W · 504 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -68.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 7,352$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.5 | 525 | 9.9%52 W · 473 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 2,358$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2,181 | 3.9%85 W · 2,096 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf262…c56dbacked Yes | 12c | 1,450$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173 | 483 | 10.1%49 W · 434 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes | 16c | 999.99$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.66 | 457 | 15.1%69 W · 388 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…c514backed Yes | 2c | 948.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.68 | 44 | 9.1%4 W · 40 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 818.25$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 2,576 | 13.2%339 W · 2,237 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4340…0202backed Yes | 2c | 585.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 6cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Yes | 21c | 297.02$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 417 | 18%75 W · 342 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 18c | 219.71$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 628 | 12.3%77 W · 551 L | +16.1wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc614…b14bbacked Yes | 16c | 200$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 347 | 14.7%51 W · 296 L | +13.8wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe451…7920backed Yes | 10c | 194.32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 130 | 11.5%15 W · 115 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f8…ead6backed Yes | 23c | 132.35$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 68 | 27.9%19 W · 49 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x055e…de32backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 627 | 13.2%83 W · 544 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 76c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 180–194 times?this page
- Will Elon tweet 150–164 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 165–179 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 195–209 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 210–224 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?Yes won
- Will Elon tweet 240–254 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 255–269 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 270–284 times?No won
- Will Elon tweet 285 or more times?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 150 times?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.