TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Yoon arrested by Friday?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,056,355
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$982,689

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,056,355 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 179 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd2b…8e50backed Yes10c86,924$8,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,544.363636.1%13 W · 23 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick30cpaid-16.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed Yes10c75,113$7,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,561.915123.5%12 W · 39 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick29cpaid-38.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1cba…6a4cbacked Yes12c42,850$4,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,942.213318.2%6 W · 27 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-75.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes8c29,532$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.196633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a15…0246backed Yes11c27,535$2,928 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,927.97119.1%1 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.21per pick31cpaid-75.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xf01e…f334backed Yes5c24,813$1,141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,140.94520%1 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-54.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c6…44e8backed Yes13c24,392$3,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,083.1415230.3%46 W · 106 L-18.7wins-0.12per pick43cpaid-30.4%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked Yes16c21,368$3,381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,381.222356.5%13 W · 10 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12c0…7bd8backed Yes7c19,244$1,418 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,417.671145.5%5 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick26cpaid+116.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9e28…dc83backed Yes16c18,971$2,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,964.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc7b2…ece3backed Yes29c17,061$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000.3830%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb15d…2851backed Yes15c16,792$2,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,496.83633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-47.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes12c13,501$1,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,629.081414.3%2 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-78.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes10c11,933$1,136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,136.0116612.7%21 W · 145 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-51.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes5c11,889$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$537.1720614.6%30 W · 176 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-18.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb49…b5b3backed Yes13c10,128$1,293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,292.653259.4%19 W · 13 L+4.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+34.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5676…b103backed Yes14c9,873$1,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,426.6220538%78 W · 127 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fc7…a4bbbacked Yes8c9,187$757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$757.05742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-39.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e27…4e9ebacked Yes13c9,128$1,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,171.281520%3 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e56…35d5backed Yes0c7,607$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.053511.4%4 W · 31 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-79.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe844…fe1abacked Yes8c7,537$625 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$624.881020%2 W · 8 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick12cpaid-44.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Yes14c7,526$1,062 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,061.713842.1%16 W · 22 L+1.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a7c…a12abacked Yes7c7,506$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.241618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-66.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…17ddbacked Yes15c7,014$1,052 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,052.053132.3%10 W · 21 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes16c6,879$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.69728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4534…f867backed Yes7c6,878$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$479.61219.5%2 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick12cpaid-78.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes9c5,611$515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x562a…3d9cbacked Yes9c5,569$513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$512.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78cf…4816backed Yes14c5,385$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.92837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick28cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes11c5,336$577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.352218.2%4 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-38.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x542c…f12bbacked Yes13c5,037$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.09425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b6c…f6aabacked Yes11c4,854$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.494231%13 W · 29 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0b…fb58backed Yes16c4,824$755 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1901…1618backed Yes11c4,636$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.98933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-9.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes11c4,501$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.9557636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed Yes10c4,354$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$451.97345.2%33 W · 40 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-9.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecad…875cbacked Yes11c4,003$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46050%0 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Yes0c3,999$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186439.1%25 W · 39 L+3.5wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-17.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce82…b52ebacked Yes25c3,973$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001735.3%6 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick36cpaid+9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f33…89cfbacked Yes14c3,872$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.16944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes15c3,822$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$561.56450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb78a…6291backed Yes22c3,821$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.3740%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff9e…56a1backed Yes17c3,600$624 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$623.826536.9%24 W · 41 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes14c3,500$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.035414.8%8 W · 46 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick13cpaid-30.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe75f…edafbacked No71c3,316$2,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$965.973540%14 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xad7e…f9ebbacked Yes14c3,200$452 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4528231.7%26 W · 56 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e6…96b1backed Yes9c3,169$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.491020%2 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-42.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd398…46d7backed Yes16c3,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4803132.3%10 W · 21 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-24.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes15c2,765$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.49742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-31.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1af…d889backed Yes11c2,750$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.51216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-48.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2027…6d60backed Yes11c2,667$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007834.6%27 W · 51 L-6.7wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-39.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa699…785fbacked Yes8c2,010$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.07944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5f…19bcbacked No77c1,800$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick64cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2227…b572backed Yes13c1,642$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.7916744.3%74 W · 93 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+4.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf92…55cbbacked Yes5c1,616$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.38per pick12cpaid+177.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c5b…a790backed Yes16c1,608$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.212445.8%11 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-23.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x498f…7b7fbacked Yes13c1,556$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.761233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick30cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes11c1,555$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.38838.6%34 W · 54 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked Yes15c1,434$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.185038%19 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-23.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d50…1160backed Yes13c1,415$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.3540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-25.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7feb…6612backed Yes15c1,368$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick38cpaid-24%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes11c1,327$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.021625%4 W · 12 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-57.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5396…ded6backed Yes4c1,310$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ca…4f29backed No79c1,271$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.11250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-36.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed Yes21c1,253$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.413745.9%17 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.08per pick38cpaid-1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5b4…770dbacked Yes11c1,195$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.417125.4%18 W · 53 L-4.6wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-42.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb80d…b4a3backed Yes32c1,094$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501457.1%8 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick66cpaid-18.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…0220backed Yes14c1,061$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.851822.2%4 W · 14 L-2.9wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-62.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6264…9937backed Yes14c1,020$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.882725.9%7 W · 20 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-47.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes25c1,000$253 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253.38047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb14e…0ad5backed Yes19c1,000$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6dba…7a15backed Yes7c1,000$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$662846.4%13 W · 15 L+6.7wins+0.24per pick22cpaid+101.4%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x53d7…50a8backed Yes4c997.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.63250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf5…adbebacked Yes16c991$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.74425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-12.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x745a…64e8backed Yes14c981.94$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.5615237.5%57 W · 95 L+8.0wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd744…414cbacked Yes13c959.56$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed Yes8c914.13$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6913525.2%34 W · 101 L-0.3wins0.00per pick25cpaid+38.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67b3…8498backed Yes18c908.81$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601850%9 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-23%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8c54…7e8cbacked Yes20c753.94$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.8960%0 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes16c704.98$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.1913118.3%24 W · 107 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-36.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8da3…8a67backed No74c700$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1823737.8%14 W · 23 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick31cpaid-17.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc44a…a403backed Yes14c694.13$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002128.6%6 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick25cpaid+24.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f4…5781backed Yes14c689.69$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.513633.3%12 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x879b…2f18backed Yes20c660$132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.22737%10 W · 17 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-16%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed Yes15c650$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.519043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x45e0…f68abacked Yes15c625.92$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.89616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-70.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes15c593.16$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.582245.5%10 W · 12 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61ea…d0c1backed Yes20c500.09$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.83714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick20cpaid-71.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xff66…5ec5backed Yes12c488.87$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes15c470$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.19053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6f91…8831backed Yes19c433$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ab4…13b2backed Yes12c420$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.21618.8%3 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-56.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x79f1…a885backed Yes12c416.67$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes13c392.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$514045%18 W · 22 L-2.3wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3de9…02a3backed No75c357.76$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.44450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-26.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3db2…ec33backed Yes10c352.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+85%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b2e…3b1cbacked Yes15c350.85$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d0e…49e3backed Yes16c305.79$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.351330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-28.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a5e…3e95backed Yes18c302.59$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.471850%9 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x71ed…d9ebbacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271421.4%3 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-59.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.