Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbb0f16a89c111199d1f9446238d40b9ed53e71020cf890f097ece2d5e7d29174
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $576,158
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $595,796
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $576,158 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 421 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 60c | 16,575$9,871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,704.25 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 2c | 12,310$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.8 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked No | 57c | 11,000$6,216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,216.45 | 177 | 9%16 W · 161 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -70.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed No | 61c | 9,937$6,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,057.4 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x20c1…4017backed Yes | 70c | 8,773$6,169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,603.99 | 33 | 24.2%8 W · 25 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf673…406fbacked Yes | 35c | 7,513$2,599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,913.63 | 148 | 18.2%27 W · 121 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58b5…7340backed No | 32c | 5,741$1,838 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,838.19 | 69 | 20.3%14 W · 55 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce40…da67backed No | 74c | 5,615$4,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,131.81 | 538 | 17.3%93 W · 445 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 47c | 5,541$2,630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,630.4 | 234 | 64.5%151 W · 83 L | +23.0wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 70c | 5,388$3,746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,641.77 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3fc…1e14backed Yes | 52c | 5,281$2,767 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,513.69 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…ebdfbacked No | 17c | 4,821$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$842.83 | 176 | 6.8%12 W · 164 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x642b…abccbacked Yes | 10c | 4,546$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,113.22 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 20c | 4,529$923 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,606.24 | 788 | 11.5%91 W · 697 L | -33.7wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x007e…8d19backed No | 2c | 4,431$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4c4…6648backed Yes | 24c | 4,204$995 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,208.97 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…c2f2backed Yes | 11c | 3,909$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,460.92 | 118 | 11%13 W · 105 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbefd…abf6backed Yes | 11c | 3,700$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,299.64 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc814…1a1ebacked Yes | 38c | 3,443$1,319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,124.12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb5a…3965backed Yes | 17c | 3,299$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,752.24 | 218 | 10.1%22 W · 196 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ad…04a8backed Yes | 37c | 3,137$1,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,989.77 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 41c | 3,129$1,296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,833.19 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes | 8c | 3,098$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,838.42 | 326 | 7.1%23 W · 303 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af2…0cb2backed Yes | 33c | 3,058$1,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,040.89 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.48per pick | 27cpaid | +156.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes | 18c | 3,010$542 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,468.2 | 285 | 9.1%26 W · 259 L | +7.2wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb24…a17bbacked Yes | 39c | 3,004$1,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.87 | 95 | 11.6%11 W · 84 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x265f…a448backed Yes | 43c | 2,918$1,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,661.84 | 285 | 34.4%98 W · 187 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d0…c293backed Yes | 33c | 2,839$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,913.9 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…567bbacked Yes | 21c | 2,803$577 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,226.51 | 227 | 10.1%23 W · 204 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf652…9351backed Yes | 79c | 2,766$2,171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$594.56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…ca0cbacked Yes | 36c | 2,569$937 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,631.39 | 99 | 14.1%14 W · 85 L | -4.0wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -61%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffd…a637backed Yes | 16c | 2,476$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,067.54 | 340 | 17.1%58 W · 282 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6a…afccbacked Yes | 18c | 2,278$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,878.35 | 180 | 12.8%23 W · 157 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d6b…fdbbbacked Yes | 60c | 2,076$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.21 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x543f…9dafbacked No | 39c | 2,000$785 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$784.52 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed No | 6c | 1,995$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 265 | 8.7%23 W · 242 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a40…d801backed Yes | 25c | 1,995$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,495.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 13cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524c…64c8backed Yes | 18c | 1,985$354 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,630.29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5091…23e9backed Yes | 29c | 1,955$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.44 | 112 | 31.3%35 W · 77 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a46…5b84backed Yes | 49c | 1,912$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$983.93 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21cf…e8ccbacked Yes | 33c | 1,856$619 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.56 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab43…7c23backed Yes | 57c | 1,719$976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$742.76 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…114bbacked Yes | 47c | 1,644$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$874.91 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8b…63b2backed Yes | 62c | 1,627$1,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$624.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x876a…9b82backed Yes | 60c | 1,538$917 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$620.54 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x865c…ad2abacked Yes | 28c | 1,523$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,102.83 | 119 | 16.8%20 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 1,432$1,031 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030.73 | 797 | 35.9%286 W · 511 L | -34.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x250e…d1bbbacked Yes | 18c | 1,424$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.6 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | +65.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x172b…e2cdbacked Yes | 35c | 1,374$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$888.3 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…b378backed Yes | 46c | 1,326$609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$717.08 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…c824backed Yes | 7c | 1,317$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.5 | 60 | 10%6 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 18c | 1,299$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.54 | 74 | 16.2%12 W · 62 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…1bd2backed No | 19c | 1,295$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.25 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x00de…3e7dbacked Yes | 16c | 1,295$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,081.37 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 31c | 1,280$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.55 | 996 | 19.8%197 W · 799 L | -15.9wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5cd…ced6backed Yes | 39c | 1,244$485 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -39%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 25c | 1,241$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$935.09 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…a23ebacked Yes | 17c | 1,235$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,022.72 | 97 | 14.4%14 W · 83 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 9c | 1,200$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,088 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa958…de3dbacked Yes | 8c | 1,166$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.59 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +67.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec28…10ebbacked Yes | 27c | 1,162$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$850.12 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097f…2d35backed Yes | 20c | 1,136$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$905.63 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -52%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 16c | 1,125$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.24 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7040…81fabacked Yes | 30c | 1,124$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.15 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd1d…a68fbacked Yes | 13c | 1,123$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$973.65 | 118 | 20.3%24 W · 94 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 8c | 1,100$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,013.99 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 11c | 1,097$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.21 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd596…76ebbacked Yes | 16c | 1,073$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902.82 | 31 | 3.2%1 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -79.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ca…64dfbacked Yes | 19c | 1,036$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$836.06 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa16f…6df1backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50dd…9c04backed Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | +6.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +173.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9593…7411backed Yes | 52c | 958.05$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$459.88 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x312a…66b8backed Yes | 26c | 951.06$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.06 | 279 | 20.4%57 W · 222 L | -6.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb309…d57abacked Yes | 22c | 928.49$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.49 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 19cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81c1…974cbacked Yes | 16c | 927.12$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 29c | 917.91$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$654.38 | 827 | 11%91 W · 736 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes | 19c | 899.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.24 | 303 | 10.9%33 W · 270 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd081…0cfabacked Yes | 22c | 894.7$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.08 | 281 | 13.5%38 W · 243 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1665…cb86backed Yes | 68c | 892.08$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c37…92a4backed Yes | 30c | 880.34$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.88 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…0166backed No | 3c | 872.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 49 | 12.2%6 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -71%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe2…f9a3backed Yes | 30c | 841.13$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.13 | 31 | 22.6%7 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6074…965bbacked Yes | 20c | 831.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 68c | 827.84$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.58 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…376dbacked Yes | 36c | 817.54$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.51 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 15cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3068…7d29backed Yes | 29c | 813.8$233 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.63 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3c…8e97backed Yes | 20c | 806.25$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$643.25 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dce…8f73backed Yes | 20c | 797.06$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$637.65 | 126 | 23%29 W · 97 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd427…05adbacked Yes | 13c | 755.22$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$659.54 | 265 | 16.6%44 W · 221 L | +11.7wins | +0.04per pick | 12cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc4c…48ffbacked Yes | 41c | 754.3$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.3 | 126 | 20.6%26 W · 100 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2324…c779backed Yes | 14c | 725.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +104%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb78…73a8backed Yes | 62c | 722.29$448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 57c | 710.27$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.64 | 439 | 33%145 W · 294 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x798f…cef0backed Yes | 28c | 703.48$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.76 | 430 | 17%73 W · 357 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…2953backed Yes | 6c | 700$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$661.5 | 221 | 19.9%44 W · 177 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fb3…4393backed Yes | 17c | 697.03$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.33 | 138 | 21.7%30 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeae8…479fbacked Yes | 21c | 692.58$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.58 | 92 | 17.4%16 W · 76 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed Yes | 30c | 675.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$475.5 | 135 | 17%23 W · 112 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67a5…638abacked Yes | 15c | 666.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +151.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3041…52b5backed No | 70c | 665.38$465 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 16–23?this page
- Will Elon tweet 100–124 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 175–199 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 200–224 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 225–249 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 250–274 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 275–299 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 300–324 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 16–23?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 100 times May 16–23?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.