Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xefd9d89132e774de5fe997ef5d9105aae62d77681603ee80c799f996da9317d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,114
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,201
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,114 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4039…e1d0backed Yes | 19c | 5,329$1,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,035.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Yes | 27c | 4,459$1,204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.99 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ea…380dbacked No | 73c | 3,486$2,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.3 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 1,407$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.11 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6327…e181backed Yes | 21c | 1,264$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.44 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 73c | 933.89$678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.51 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 65c | 723.06$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.21 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 77c | 716.12$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.71 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Yes | 39c | 464.64$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.21 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc805…760dbacked No | 72c | 350.04$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe993…f57dbacked Yes | 28c | 350$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 57c | 300$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 61c | 288.23$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.41 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e10…70f4backed Yes | 39c | 219.12$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.37 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Yes | 28c | 200$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89aa…a254backed Yes | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 28c | 142.86$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 43.2%86 W · 113 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 24c | 131.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…92bebacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9e…4580backed No | 48c | 101.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.41 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5242…5a2cbacked Yes | 37c | 96.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6860…ef1fbacked Yes | 38c | 79$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1092…28d7backed Yes | 28c | 71.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 71c | 70.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.59 | 88 | 70.5%62 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ce…b3dcbacked No | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x641b…6116backed Yes | 58c | 65.22$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.83 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 58cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4406…c664backed Yes | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2699…29f6backed No | 72c | 57.14$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 98 | 46.9%46 W · 52 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 38c | 40.79$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.31 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…2bccbacked No | 54c | 27.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…5c1bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin end in a draw?this page
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-10-24?No won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.