Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Union Berlin win on 2025-10-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0a04fc86fb57359741d867d0a224ef8db79680f3193c8dea979341c314970bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,133
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 73c | 7,212$5,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,918.49 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked No | 69c | 4,958$3,429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.66 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Yes | 33c | 3,977$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Yes | 29c | 3,500$1,009 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,009.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked No | 69c | 2,563$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.63 | 95 | 52.6%50 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…9974backed Yes | 31c | 2,500$775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$775 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed No | 69c | 2,466$1,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$773.86 | 230 | 46.5%107 W · 123 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Yes | 32c | 2,050$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.41 | 71 | 11.3%8 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc23b…24f9backed Yes | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 237 | 45.6%108 W · 129 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e0…8194backed No | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$639.99 | 116 | 44.8%52 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ba3…c720backed Yes | 31c | 1,621$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.51 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaca…c1f9backed No | 70c | 1,261$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 32c | 906.25$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…8d89backed Yes | 32c | 863$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Yes | 33c | 766.45$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 16c | 640$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 238 | 42.9%102 W · 136 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed No | 69c | 623.21$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.23 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf744…7392backed No | 71c | 565.56$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.56 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 69cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed No | 75c | 513.48$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.89 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +5.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked No | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f84…67efbacked Yes | 8c | 290$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 147 | 26.5%39 W · 108 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf519…906bbacked No | 68c | 200.47$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked No | 68c | 181.63$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.12 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89aa…a254backed Yes | 32c | 156.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4caf…6de9backed Yes | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 30c | 155.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 101 | 28.7%29 W · 72 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 511 | 36.8%188 W · 323 L | -28.0wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 17c | 150$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 210 | 41.9%88 W · 122 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a9…1a49backed Yes | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Yes | 30c | 112$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 68c | 99.61$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x998c…f0babacked Yes | 32c | 89.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 68c | 88$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.16 | 242 | 58.7%142 W · 100 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865f…e88ebacked Yes | 31c | 88$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 343 | 42%144 W · 199 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7591…509dbacked No | 72c | 80$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ee…efe0backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked No | 71c | 75$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.75 | 226 | 69%156 W · 70 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17ae…ccf1backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4234…6b87backed Yes | 31c | 64.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Yes | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf316…b391backed Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 28c | 55.68$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 193 | 47.2%91 W · 102 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Yes | 30c | 49.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 148 | 46.6%69 W · 79 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 70c | 44.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 256 | 59.4%152 W · 104 L | +9.8wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd523…0aa4backed Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5cf…c348backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99c0…b645backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb1…6240backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d1…ad22backed Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 45cpaid | +106.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c92…9cd9backed Yes | 34c | 30.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 70 | 67.1%47 W · 23 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0c…d370backed No | 72c | 20.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e1…4f54backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Union Berlin win on 2025-10-24?this page
- Will Werder Bremen vs. Union Berlin end in a draw?No won
- Will Werder Bremen win on 2025-10-24?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.